Gets the good inside box — trap 1 wins 23% at this grade — but nearly everything else needs to improve. Her recent form is from A6, a grade below tonight, and it's been patchy: a rated-48 fifth last time, a 20 two runs back, with the lone bright spot a 60 five starts ago. Her best time of 29.64 is the slowest in the field and seven course-and-distance runs have produced a single place. The draw keeps her relevant early; the clock says she can't sustain it.

Twice a winner over this course and distance — the only multiple course winner in the race — and his rated-63 second here two starts back would put him right in this finish. But he's landed in trap 2, which has won just one in twelve at this grade, the single worst draw statistic in the race. His last run was a beaten fifth at this grade and his speed figure of 41 sits near the bottom of the field. The venue know-how is real and a fast break would change the conversation; history says it's unlikely from that box.

The fastest dog in the race on the watch — his 29.21, set in A4 company last time out, is three lengths clear of anything else here, and his season has been spent entirely at A3 and A4, making him the clearest class-dropper in the field. So why isn't he the pick? He's finished sixth in both of his last two starts, his rating hasn't beaten 55 in six runs despite the fast times, and trap 4 wins only 13% at this grade. The engine is unquestionable; the recent results and the draw both wobble. If he breaks on terms he could make every yard and win despite the box.

Owns the joint-best performance average in the field (55) and a rated-74 run two starts back that no rival has matched this summer. But the profile is a placer's: nine course-and-distance runs, no wins, three seconds, and he was well beaten at this grade last time. Now he draws trap 5, which wins fewer than one in ten of these. A big early rating and repeated near-misses from a dead box is a formula for another frustrating second at best — he needs the leaders to tangle to steal it.