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The Curraheen Park Supporters Club 525 Final
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Boola Ellieb 2y 5 | Eugene Cremin — 0% R6 W0 P4 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | - | 67 (2) | 71 (2) | 46 (6) | 58 (4) | 61 (4) | 81 (1) | 50 (4) | 42 (6) | 60 (5) | 66 (2) | 34 | 26 | 23 | 28 | 61 | 48 | 3 | 9/4 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Dunbullogue Ottob 3y 15 | - | - | 47 | - | 66 (3) | 61 (2) | 41 (4) | 56 (4) | 65 (3) | 76 (1) | 63 (2) | 53 (3) | 52 (5) | 51 (5) | - | 22 | 4 | 22 | 59 | 44 | 5 | 5/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Blastoff Tend 3y 24 | - | - | 45 | - | 58 (3) | 59 (5) | 51 (5) | 62 (4) | 73 (3) | 72 (3) | 65 (2) | 64 (3) | 69 (3) | 56 (4) | - | 18 | 8 | 8 | 62 | 40 | 6 | 15/2 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Bling Bling Tonyd 1y 26 | Tom O'Neill — 31% R13 W4 P7 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 60 | - | 84 (1) | 63 (3) | 69 (4) | 48 (3) | 50 (3) | - | - | - | - | - | 24 | 18 | 30 | 27 | 66 | 51 | 1 | 5/2 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Seamrogd 1y 25 | James Kelleher — 10% R31 W3 P18 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | - | 66 (2) | 63 (4) | 53 (6) | 64 (3) | 75 (1) | 48 (4) | 52 (2) | 36 (5) | - | - | - | 27 | 18 | 27 | 60 | 45 | 4 | 6/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Newtown Alvab 2y 15 | - | - | 47 | - | 86 (1) | 75 (5) | 56 (3) | 83 (6) | 56 (1) | 53 (6) | 82 (5) | 57 (1) | 65 (5) | - | 49 | 38 | 43 | 36 | 70 | 51 | 2 | 15/8 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Blastoff Ten | 29.01 | 29.47 | — | 45 | — | 0 wins from 8 | |
| 1 | Boola Ellie | 29.03 | 29.64 | 29.48 | 50 | +0.45 | Best trap | |
| 4 | Bling Bling Tony | 29.05 | 29.13 | 29.05 | 60 | 0.00 | Model pick | |
| 2 | Dunbullogue Otto | 29.13 | 29.69 | 29.63 | 47 | +0.50 | 3rd last time | |
| 5 | Seamrog | 29.18 | 29.26 | 29.22 | 52 | +0.04 | 2nd last time | |
| 6 | Newtown Alva | 29.20 | 29.49 | 28.68 | 47 | -0.52 | 28.68 last time |
The race of the night. A4 over 525m plays to trap 1 (26% from 85 runs) and trap 4 (21%), with trap 6 the black spot at 9% — and that last number matters enormously here, because the form dog of the entire card, Newtown Alva, breaks from six. She won last time in a rated-86 romp, clocking 28.68, the fastest recent run anywhere on tonight's card, and her average of 70 is untouchable in this company. Against her stands Bling Bling Tony: also a last-start winner (rated 84), the field's top speed figure at 60, an average time of 29.13 that says he never runs a slow race, and the golden middle-inside draw in four. Both won on the same night here a fortnight ago. Boola Ellie, second that evening, gets the best box on the track in one and brings four placings from ten course runs. Expect Tony to burn to the bend from four while Alva has to pick her way through from the widest lane; if she's held up even briefly, his consistency and position should decide it.
Won here a fortnight ago with a rated-84 performance, clocking 29.05, and everything about his short five-race career screams upward: ratings of 84, 63 and 69 in his last three, the field's top speed figure at 60, and an average time of 29.13 that means he has literally never run a slow race at this trip. Trainer Tom O'Neill operates at a 33% strike rate — the standout trainer signal on the card — and the draw completes the hand: trap 4 wins 21% at this grade, second only to trap 1, and it puts him inside Newtown Alva with first run to the bend. Five career starts is a light book, so he must keep improving against a proven rival, but every measurable in this race points his way while the geography points against hers.
The best form dog on the entire card. She won here a fortnight ago rated 86 — the highest figure any runner tonight has posted this year — clocking 28.68, the fastest recent run at the track, and her 70 average with three wins from eight course-and-distance starts is championship stuff for A4 level. Her line includes A2 and A3 outings, so the class is proven, and she beat the pick's time by nearly two lengths on the same night's racing. There is exactly one problem, and it's a big one: trap 6 wins 9% of A4 races here — one in eleven — and she now has to cross five rivals or go the long way round every bend. If she breaks brilliantly the draw won't matter and she wins this. The percentages just say that's the harder path.
Consistency personified — she's rated 58 or better in five of her last six, was second here a fortnight ago with a rated 67, and her 81 earlier in the season is the second-highest figure anyone in this field has ever posted. Now she gets trap 1, the most productive box at this grade at 26%. Ten course-and-distance runs for one win and four places paints her as more placer than winner, and her recent clockings sit a few lengths off the two last-start winners, but from that draw she will be in the firing line throughout. Solid each-way foundation.
Another whose form reads well — third here two weeks ago rated 66, with a 76 in his line earlier this season and a solid 59 average. He's more one-paced than the principals: his 29.13 career best is respectable but his recent runs have been in the 29.6s, and trap 2 wins under 15% at this grade. Ten course-and-distance runs for a single win says he needs things to fall right. In a race with two last-start winners ahead of him on every measure, minor honours look his ceiling.
The fastest career time in the race — 29.01, set in his A2/A3 days — and a 62 average that says the class is real. But the direction of travel worries: he's slipped from A2 to A4 over his last ten runs, hasn't won in eight tries at this course and distance, and his last three ratings (58, 59, 51) are a shadow of the 72s and 73s earlier in his line. Trap 3 wins only 13.5% at this grade. Dogs sliding down the grades can bounce back on class, and his clock gives him every right to compete, but the winless course record and quiet draw make him a watch-not-bet tonight.
Second here two weeks ago behind a fast winner, rated 66, and his average time of 29.26 is bettered only by the pick's — he brings speed every single week. His season includes runs at A2 and A3, so this grade is comfortably within reach, and a 75 rating four starts back shows the ceiling. The obstacles: trap 5 wins only 16% at this grade, and one win from seven course-and-distance runs suggests he's better at chasing home fast dogs than beating them. In a race with three last-start top-two finishers, he's the one most dependent on trouble ahead.
Key insight: Trap 1 (25.9%) and trap 4 (20.9%) are the productive A4 boxes; trap 6 wins just 9.2% from 87 runs — a heavy tax on the field's outstanding form dog, who is drawn there tonight. The fastest-rated dog edges the ratings' pick, 24.5% to 22.1%.
T1:25.9% T2:14.6% T3:13.5% T4:20.9% T5:16.1% T6:9.2%
523 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 525m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 525m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (525m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 525m | 550m | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boola Ellie | 0.564 | — |
| 2 | Dunbullogue Otto | 0.565 | — |
| 3 | Blastoff Ten | 0.561 | — |
| 4 | Bling Bling Tony | 0.555 | 0.566 |
| 5 | Seamrog | 0.563 | 0.570 |
| 6 | Newtown Alva | 0.560 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.