Climbing fast — a rated-80 run two starts back and a second at A5 last time have earned her a three-grade promotion tonight. Her 29.09 best at the trip is respectable and she's placed in three of six course-and-distance starts. But A2 is a different world from the A4/A5 company she's beaten, her speed figure of 47 ranks near the bottom of this field, and trap 2 wins only 15% at the grade. The trajectory is admirable; the assignment is premature.

Two starts back he posted a rated 93 — the single highest figure any dog on tonight's card owns — winning in 28.92, and his 29.28 average time leads this field. Then last time he trailed home sixth rated 44, a fifty-point collapse with no obvious excuse in the form line. His five-race career has swung violently (34 up to 93), which makes him simultaneously the biggest talent and the biggest gamble in the race. Two course wins from five starts say when he fires, he wins. Nobody, possibly including his trainer, knows which Teddy shows up.

On his spring form he'd be a leading player — a 71 average, a rated-87 run in February, the field's top speed figure at 54, and two wins from ten course-and-distance starts. But he hasn't been seen on a racetrack since late February, a five-month absence that dwarfs every other question in this race, and he returns in the box that wins fewer A2 races than any other. Class is permanent and his is real; five months of rust from an 12% trap against race-fit A1-grade opposition is simply too much to give away.

Won at A5 last time with a career-best rated 80, clocking 29.08, and the handicapper has responded by throwing her three grades up the ladder in one go. She's a young dog on a steep curve — one win and a place from three course-and-distance starts — and trap 6 is a workable box at this grade at 17%. The 80 says she might belong; the fact that her previous five runs never beat a 66 says last time was the outlier rather than the new normal. A2 winners usually need to repeat those numbers weekly.