Loading...
The Lucky Last 525
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Brynoffa Hopb 2y 4 | Leo Dunphy — 17% R23 W4 P11 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 60 | - | 60 (3) | 56 (4) | 59 (3) | 52 (4) | 67 (2) | 56 (5) | 50 (4) | 63 (3) | 75 (1) | 59 (3) | 12 | 19 | 23 | 14 | 59 | 50 | 1 | N/P | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Aoife Thecooper? ? 14 | - | - | 51 | - | 52 (4) | 72 (1) | 36 (6) | 51 (4) | 48 (5) | 58 (3) | 55 (5) | 69 (1) | 50 (3) | 58 (2) | 15 | 17 | 20 | 20 | 54 | 41 | 3 | N/P | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Surpriseb 4y 14 | - | - | 66 | - | 56 (4) | 62 (3) | 53 (5) | 60 (4) | 52 (6) | 60 (4) | 70 (2) | 74 (1) | 62 (4) | 69 (2) | 50 | 28 | 44 | 17 | 60 | 56 | 2 | N/P | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Avalon Killian? ? 23 | - | - | 39 | - | 54 (4) | 44 (6) | 68 (1) | 41 (6) | 44 (4) | 59 (2) | 66 (1) | 44 (4) | 47 (3) | 54 (4) | 26 | 18 | 19 | 25 | 52 | 28 | 6 | N/P | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Crack On Tom? ? 13 | - | - | 38 | - | 40 (5) | 38 (6) | 39 (5) | 47 (5) | 59 (2) | 44 (6) | 44 (4) | 50 (5) | 68 (1) | 47 (5) | 13 | 14 | - | 13 | 45 | 31 | 5 | N/P | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Six Perfectionsb 4y 14 | - | - | 45 | - | 60 (2) | 60 (2) | 44 (6) | 40 (5) | 57 (3) | 66 (1) | 47 (3) | 46 (5) | 40 (5) | 49 (4) | 30 | 23 | 3 | 24 | 53 | 39 | 4 | N/P | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Surprise | 29.35 | 29.74 | 29.70 | 66 | +0.35 | Speed + golden box | |
| 1 | Brynoffa Hop | 29.48 | 29.78 | 29.90 | 60 | +0.42 | 3.8% box | |
| 2 | Aoife Thecooper | 29.67 | 29.97 | 30.00 | 51 | +0.33 | June C&D winner | |
| 5 | Crack On Tom | 29.67 | 30.19 | 30.61 | 38 | +0.94 | 6.8% box | |
| 4 | Avalon Killian | 29.71 | 30.31 | 30.33 | 39 | +0.62 | Fades late | |
| 6 | Six Perfections | 29.87 | 30.21 | 29.87 | 45 | 0.00 | Fresh, placing |
The card signs off with the A6 trap gospel one more time: trap 3 wins 23.6% from 123 runs, trap 1 wins 3.8%, trap 5 6.8%. Tonight the golden box holds the right dog — Surprise owns the fastest clock ranking in the field by six clear points, the fastest raw time at 29.35, and the top rating. He led at the first bend at this grade last time before being run down, and from the draw that wins nearly one in four of these, holding that lead becomes a far more realistic proposition. Brynoffa Hop, the second-fastest here, is buried in the 3.8% rail box. Aoife Thecooper, a course-and-distance winner in June, and the fresh Six Perfections are next best. Surprise should lead; the race is about whether anything can reel him in.
The structural standout of the finale. He is the fastest in this field on the clock rankings by six clear points, owns the fastest raw time at 29.35, holds the top rating — and he lands trap 3, the box that wins 23.6% of A6 races here. He led at the first bend at this grade last time before being caught, and that early dash from the favoured draw is exactly the recipe this track rewards. All graded form between A4 and A6, no trials. The caveat that keeps this from stronger confidence: one win from ten course and distance starts — he has made a habit of finding one too good. The setup has never been kinder for him to break that pattern.
Won at this grade and trip in mid-June, leading near the line, and ran a fair fourth after an early bump last time — her 72-rated run two starts back is among the best recent figures in the field. All graded form, two wins and three places from ten course and distance starts. Trap 2 is the second-best box at this grade at 17.7%. She finishes her races off strongly, which is precisely the profile to profit if the selection weakens late as he has before. Clear danger.
The second-fastest in the field on the clock rankings and joint-best form average, third at this grade last time — a live contender on ability alone. But he is drawn in trap 1, which wins 3.8% of A6 races here, four winners from 105 runs, the worst box-and-grade pairing at the track. One win from ten course and distance starts, all graded form, and a modest 12% trainer. The engine is real; the draw has been a career-killer for better dogs than him at this grade.
A confirmed early-pace type who has faded in three of his last four — leading or pressing before weakening every time. His win came at A7 grade in April in 29.74, and he has two wins and three places from ten course and distance starts, all graded. Trap 4 is the second-best box at this grade at 19.7%, so he will be involved early. The pattern is well established though: he sets it up for the finishers rather than lasting home himself.
Struggling badly — beaten in all six runs this summer with ratings in the 38-47 band, missed the break repeatedly, and his best recent effort was a second at A7 grade back in May. One win from ten course and distance starts, all graded form. Trap 5 wins under 7% at this grade, the second-worst draw. Nothing in the recent evidence gives him a realistic chance against these.
Fresh from a three-month freshening broken by one good run — second at A7 grade in 29.87 three weeks ago, finishing well after showing early pace. That followed another second in April, so he has hit the frame in both starts this year. One win and three places from ten course and distance starts, all graded. Trap 6 is middling here at 13.4% and this is a step up from A7. Improving and interesting each-way; needs a bit more to win.
Key insight: The finale hands the fastest dog (by 6 points) the 23.6% golden box while his quickest rival sits in the 3.8% graveyard — the cleanest structural setup of the night.
T1:3.8% T2:17.7% T3:23.6% T4:19.7% T5:6.8% T6:13.4%
719 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 525m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 525m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.