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The Matchbook Betting Exchange 525
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Swift Bizerk? ? 15 | Gordon Rotheram — 21% R38 W8 P19 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 56 | - | 57 (3) | 49 (5) | 43 (5) | 74 (1) | 42 (6) | 55 (5) | 58 (4) | 69 (1) | 51 (4) | 39 (6) | 19 | 31 | 45 | 23 | 54 | 45 | 1 | 2/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Tobergal Rosie? ? 43 | - | - | 46 | - | 48 (4) | 57 (4) | 62 (4) | 75 (1) | 43 (5) | 60 (3) | 53 (5) | 58 (3) | 49 (4) | 66 (1) | 23 | 19 | 18 | 14 | 57 | 27 | 4 | 3/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Nans Crossanb 3y 24 | - | - | 56 | - | 43 (6) | 66 (3) | 46 (5) | 48 (5) | 47 (6) | 43 (6) | 54 (4) | 43 (6) | 77 (2) | 70 (2) | 30 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 52 | 36 | 3 | 6/4F | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Unspeakable? ? 23 | - | - | 32 | - | 38 (5) | 50 (5) | 68 (1) | 65 (1) | 48 (4) | 41 (6) | 38 (6) | 40 (6) | 43 (5) | 52 (4) | 3 | 32 | 8 | 25 | 49 | 30 | 6 | 3/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Bay Cruiser? ? 34 | - | - | 49 | - | 50 (5) | 52 (4) | 47 (6) | 46 (5) | 61 (2) | 42 (6) | 41 (6) | 50 (5) | 75 (1) | 54 (3) | 24 | 24 | 25 | 15 | 51 | 23 | 5 | 3/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Percival Ladyb 3y 33 | - | - | 53 | - | 58 (2) | 47 (5) | 51 (3) | 46 (6) | 55 (4) | 58 (2) | 66 (1) | 53 (4) | 63 (1) | 39 (3) | 23 | 15 | 7 | 9 | 53 | 35 | 2 | 3/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Nans Crossan | 29.25 | 29.98 | 30.12 | 56 | +0.87 | 0 wins from 10 | |
| 5 | Bay Cruiser | 29.54 | 30.04 | 30.26 | 49 | +0.72 | 6.8% box | |
| 1 | Swift Bizerk | 29.57 | 30.00 | 29.76 | 56 | +0.19 | 3.8% box | |
| 2 | Tobergal Rosie | 29.59 | 29.99 | 30.41 | 46 | +0.82 | Grade dropper | |
| 4 | Unspeakable | 29.81 | 30.45 | 30.58 | 32 | +0.77 | Slowest here | |
| 6 | Percival Lady | 29.86 | 29.88 | 29.86 | 53 | 0.00 | Sprint convert |
The same A6 trap story that runs through this card: trap 3 wins 23.6% from 123 runs while trap 1 is a wretched 3.8% — the worst box-and-grade combination at the track — and trap 5 is barely better at 6.8%. That is a serious problem for Swift Bizerk, the top-rated dog, drawn on the rail. Beyond the draw this is a weak, wide-open A6: nobody in the field has won at the trip since mid-June. Tobergal Rosie drops back to A6 after four competitive A5 efforts, Nans Crossan brings the joint-best clock ranking and the favoured box, and Percival Lady showed sharp early pace when second here three weeks ago. Nans Crossan and Percival Lady should show the way early; the finish could be crowded.
The best form figures in a weak race — her average rating of 57 leads the field — and she drops back to A6 grade, where she won in 29.59 in late May, after four straight competitive runs in stronger A5 company. All graded form, no trials, ten course and distance starts. She stays on well, with strong-finishing comments in three of her last six runs, and trap 2 is the second-best box at this grade at 17.7%. Not a race to be dogmatic about, but she has the most solid credentials of the six.
Has the two things you want around here — the golden trap 3 draw, which wins 23.6% at this grade, and the joint-fastest clock ranking in the field with a 29.25 best no rival can match. The glaring problem: ten course and distance runs without a win, and he was beaten out of sight at this grade last time. All graded form. The draw and the speed make him the obvious danger; the win record explains why he is not the pick.
Joint-fastest in the field on the clock rankings and third at A5 grade last time, so he arrives in reasonable heart — but trap 1 wins 3.8% of A6 races here, four winners from 105 runs. His most recent win did come at this grade in June, from a different box, and all his form is graded. His trainer operates at a fair 24%. The statistic is brutal and he has to defy it.
Won back-to-back A7 races in June, both times running on strongly to lead late — the profile of a dog who needs a strong pace to chase. But he is comfortably the slowest in the field on the clock rankings, his two runs at this grade since were well beaten, and his times are over half a second off the principals. All graded form, five course and distance runs. The step up looks beyond him unless the leaders overdo it up front.
One win from ten course and distance attempts and he has not beaten more than two dogs home since early June. Slowly away in four of his last six, all graded form, and drawn in trap 5, which wins under 7% at this grade here. Hard to construct a winning case; minor honours at best if the race falls apart.
Showed sharp early pace when second at this grade three weeks ago in 29.86 — her best effort since switching from sprint trips, where most of her earlier form was earned. Only one previous run at this course and distance, so she is relatively unexposed over the 525 metres, and all her form is graded. Trap 6 is middling here at 13.4%. An improver's chance if she sees out the trip strongly again.
Key insight: Wide-open weak A6 — top-rated dog is in the 3.8% death box, the golden-box dog has never won in ten trips, and the pick wins on form default from the 17.7% second-best draw.
T1:3.8% T2:17.7% T3:23.6% T4:19.7% T5:6.8% T6:13.4%
719 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 525m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 525m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (525m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 300m | 325m | 525m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swift Bizerk | — | — | 0.571 |
| 2 | Tobergal Rosie | — | — | 0.571 |
| 3 | Nans Crossan | — | — | 0.571 |
| 4 | Unspeakable | — | — | 0.580 |
| 5 | Bay Cruiser | — | — | 0.572 |
| 6 | Percival Lady | 0.572 | 0.563 | 0.569 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.