Owns the fastest raw time in the race — 29.00 — and the top clock ranking, with an 84-rated run two starts back and a 29.43 win at this grade in June. All graded form at A3 and A4, and his trainer wins at a fair 23%. But the box is the problem: trap 1 wins 6.8% of A4 races here, ten winners from 148 runs, the worst draw at the grade. The talent is obvious and he will have supporters; the statistic is brutal and non-negotiable.

Two wins in his last five — at A5 and A6 grade — and an 80-rated effort within his last two, so he arrives in decent order. All graded form bar one staying-trip experiment, two wins from nine course and distance starts. But he lacked early pace when fourth at this grade last time, his clock ranking is the second-slowest in the field, and trap 2 wins only 11.6% here. Better boxes and faster rivals abound.

A model of consistency — five of his last six runs rated 70 or better, including a 29.31 win at this grade in June, and his trainer Joe Devlin operates at a near-elite 29%. Three wins from eight course and distance starts, all graded form. Trap 5 is reasonable at this grade at 15.9%. He is right in the mix on figures and connections; the only reason he is not the selection is that Cindy's recent form is a notch sharper and his last run was his weakest for months.

Won at A6 grade last week in 29.49, leading from the third bend, and has placed in three of his last five. All graded form, one win from ten course and distance starts. The step from A6 to A4 is two grades though, his clock ranking sits mid-pack, and trap 6 wins under 10% at this grade here. Progressive, but this is a much deeper race than the one he just won.