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The Goose is on the loose its ATXs 50th Birthday
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Marwood Ravenb 2yREP 16 | G Strike — 20% R424 W85 P225 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 43 | 52 | 46 (5) | 80 (1) | 60 (3) | 67 (3) | 65 (2) | 41 (6) | 67 (2) | 62 (4) | 67 (2) | 78 (1) | 45 | 57 | 20 | 43 | 62 | 45 | 4 | 4/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Thors Hoped 2yREP 17 | M K Bulmer — 20% R275 W55 P152 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 34 | 58 (4) | 61 (4) | 61 (4) | 44 (4) | 66 (3) | 18 (4) | 69 (4) | 57 (5) | 82 (1) | 63 (4) | 8 | 27 | 20 | 15 | 57 | 36 | 6 | 7/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Southwood Kittyb 3yREP 110 | P Miller — 20% R610 W124 P337 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 63 | 47 | 74 (3) | 74 (2) | 68 (3) | 54 (6) | 57 (6) | 75 (4) | 78 (2) | 65 (1) | 47 (2) | - | 16 | 30 | 29 | 24 | 67 | 48 | 1 | 2/1F | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Droopys Pamelab 4yREP 28 | C Mcnicholas — 14% R536 W77 P260 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 63 | 63 (3) | 54 (4) | 79 (1) | 54 (5) | 55 (3) | 68 (3) | 54 (4) | 62 (4) | 64 (4) | 58 (3) | 28 | 20 | - | 15 | 61 | 40 | 3 | 9/2 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Blackeyed Keyesd 3yREP 15 | G Strike — 20% R424 W85 P225 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 45 | 57 (4) | 70 (2) | 69 (2) | 49 (5) | 60 (4) | 75 (2) | 57 (5) | 60 (3) | 83 (1) | 71 (2) | 35 | 32 | 34 | 27 | 64 | 41 | 5 | 3/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Kerryroad Millieb 2yREP 110 | D Blackbird — 16% R1106 W178 P611 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 54 | 63 | 76 (2) | 66 (3) | 79 (1) | 45 (6) | 52 (4) | 54 (5) | 44 (5) | 57 (2) | 78 (1) | 35 (6) | 8 | 24 | 20 | 34 | 62 | 44 | 2 | 9/2 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Uimhir A Tri | No 450m form — times not comparable. | — | Never run 450m | ||||
| 3 | Fabulous Spell | No 450m form — times not comparable. | — | No Sunderland form | ||||
| 2 | Frenchyarrow | 27.01 | 27.31 | 26.91 | 58 | -0.10 | 3 wins from 6 C&D | |
| 1 | Unanimous Leo | 27.18 | 27.24 | 27.30 | 53 | +0.12 | 2nd here LTO | |
| 4 | Romeo Dutch | 27.31 | 27.59 | 27.65 | 39 | +0.34 | 3 wins from 5 C&D | |
| 5 | Five Ofa Kind | 27.36 | 27.88 | 27.36 | 37 | 0.00 | Thin recent form | |
Open-class racing over Sunderland's 450 metres, where the long charge to a difficult first bend shapes everything. In open thirds at this trip, trap 3 has been the standout box, winning 29.3% from 58 runs, while trap 6 is a graveyard at just 7.3% and trap 5 little better at 14.5%. Unanimous Leo and Five Ofa Kind are the confirmed front runners and should cut out a strong early gallop — both, though, can weaken in the closing stages. That sets the race up beautifully for the strong finishers Frenchyarrow and Fabulous Spell, who will be running on hardest when it matters. Uimhir A Tri has eye-catching raw speed but is saddled with the dreaded wide draw and has never raced this distance. Romeo Dutch, the course specialist, lurks in midfield.
Clocked 26.91 over this course and distance last month — the fastest recent time by any of these — and owns three wins from six course and distance starts, a 50% strike rate at the venue. He drops back from a top-flight open where he was outclassed, and this is a far more winnable assignment. Outpaced early, he does his best work late, and with two confirmed front runners guaranteeing a strong gallop up front, the race should collapse right into his lap. Second-fastest in the field on the clock seals a rock-solid case.
The classiest dog in the race on ratings — she has hit peaks of 100 and 92 in recent months against top open-class opposition — and she owns the best first-bend figure here by a wide margin. She is drawn in trap 3, the strongest box in open company at this trip, winning nearly three in ten. The reservation is real, though: she has never raced at Sunderland or over 450 metres, so this is unknown territory however good the engine.
Ran a cracker here last week when second in this very grade with a rated-72 effort, and hit a 91 the run before that — he belongs at this level. He is all early pace and likes to make every yard of the running, but he can stop late, and with another confirmed front runner in the race he may not get things all his own way up front. One win from two course and distance starts shows the track suits.
The course specialist of the field — three wins from five starts over this course and distance, a 60% strike rate that towers over everyone else's record here. His overall speed figures are the concern: he is among the slowest in the field on the clock and was well beaten in this grade a fortnight ago. Versatile, handles the track beautifully, and if the principals take lumps out of each other he is the one who profits.
Another who wants to lead, but his recent form is thin — well held in opens lately after a rated-94 effort back in the spring — and trap 5 has been a poor box in open company here, winning under 15%. Two wins from four course and distance runs show he handles the place; he just looks held on these ratings and may compromise Unanimous Leo's lead without getting it himself.
The fastest raw speed figure in the race and a rated-100 performance in his recent past, but everything else is against him: he has never run this distance, his recent outings have been sprints and Irish opens, and trap 6 in open company at this trip has produced barely one winner in fourteen. He has not raced since late June either. Speed alone will not rescue that draw and that profile.
Key insight: 342 runs in open thirds over 450m. Trap 3 dominates at 29.3%; trap 6 wins barely one in fourteen at 7.3%. Only a few hundred runners have gone through this grade here, so treat the trap pattern as a strong lean rather than gospel.
T1:23.2% T2:21.4% T3:29.3% T4:20.0% T5:14.5% T6:7.3%
342 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 450m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Marwood Raven | 50 | 48 | All-Rounder |
2Thors Hope | 38 | 80 | Closer |
3Southwood Kitty | 46 | 69 | Closer |
4Droopys Pamela | 63 | 24 | Fader |
5Blackeyed Keyes | 50 | 52 | All-Rounder |
6Kerryroad Millie | 61 | 24 | Fader |
Only runs at exactly 450m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.