The Arena Racing Company 450 Heat 3
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Currans Dodged 2yN/RREP 34 | E Y Bell — 20% R535 W109 P289 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 36 | 31 | 67 (4) | 52 (5) | 64 (5) | 92 (1) | 67 (3) | 79 (2) | 71 (3) | 69 (3) | 66 (5) | 69 (2) | 2 | 20 | 12 | 25 | 69 | 6 | - | - | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Milestone Mob 2yREP 35 | D Blackbird — 16% R1106 W178 P611 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 48 | 73 (2) | 56 (5) | 69 (4) | 90 (1) | 92 (1) | 33 (4) | 46 (1) | 25 (6) | 28 (5) | 34 (4) | 1 | 11 | 10 | 41 | 74 | 33 | 4 | 9/2 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Slinky Dog Dashd 1yREP 15 | T C Heilbron — 17% R234 W39 P114 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 45 | 94 (1) | 58 (3) | 68 (4) | 70 (3) | 40 (5) | 69 (2) | 69 (4) | 66 (4) | 75 (3) | 86 (1) | 30 | 59 | - | 35 | 70 | 42 | 5 | 8/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Shinjim Magicd 3yREP 19 | E Y Bell — 20% R535 W109 P289 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 56 | 52 | 95 (1) | 94 (1) | 62 (4) | 76 (3) | 72 (3) | 92 (2) | 73 (1) | 71 (2) | 69 (3) | - | 52 | 19 | 5 | 46 | 81 | 48 | 1 | 11/4 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Velvet Georged 1yREP 22 | E Soppitt — 33% R24 W8 P18 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 58 | 87 (2) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 18 | 33 | - | 18 | 87 | 26 | 2 | 6/4F | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Hollyhill Kingd 2yREP 16 | M K Bulmer — 20% R275 W55 P152 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 54 | 59 | 47 (5) | 59 (6) | 73 (2) | 90 (1) | 79 (2) | 95 (1) | 89 (1) | 99 (1) | 58 (6) | 51 (5) | 47 | 51 | 32 | 54 | 71 | 54 | 3 | 3/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kilara Majeste | 28.04 | 28.41 | 28.44 | 54 | +0.40 | Drops from A5 | |
| 2 | Charge It | 28.09 | 28.52 | 28.73 | 47 | +0.64 | Well beaten LTO | |
| 4 | Level Dubai | 28.19 | 28.46 | 28.38 | 52 | +0.19 | 2nd last time | |
| 5 | Droopys Fetch | 28.22 | 28.42 | 28.44 | 52 | +0.22 | 1 win from 9 C&D | |
| 6 | Greenhill Patch | 28.28 | 28.55 | 28.53 | 46 | +0.25 | Dead draw at A7 | |
| 3 | People Watching | No 450m form — times not comparable. | — | Debutant, all trials | ||||
Sunderland's 450 metres — a long run to a first bend that is awkward to manoeuvre — is at its most unpredictable in the lower grades, where the leading measures pick fewer than one winner in five, so treat everything here as a lean rather than gospel. At A7 grade trap 3 is the prime berth, winning 22.6% from 155 runs, with trap 2 close behind, while trap 6 is dire at 10.8% and trap 1 not much better at 13.3%. The complication is in that favoured trap 3: People Watching is a complete newcomer whose form is entirely solo trials — impossible to assess and capable of anything. Charge It and Greenhill Patch will fight out the early lead; Kilara Majeste and Droopys Fetch are the late runners who profit if the leaders come back to them, which at this grade they often do.
The fastest in the field on the clock and the best of these on overall ratings, dropping two grades from A5 company — she has been racing against better dogs than this all season and hit a rated-64 effort earlier in the summer. Freshened by a trial here on 13 July after a month off, and her kennel clearly feels this grade is winnable. The negatives are plain: she is yet to win in ten course and distance attempts, does her best work late on a track that gives late runners little help, and trap 1 wins barely one in eight at this grade. But in a race this weak, class and raw speed count for plenty — she is the reluctant call in a contest where nothing is trustworthy.
The form pick: second here in this grade last week and second-fastest in the field on the clock. Versatile, races handily rather than needing everything to drop right, and has been competitive since dropping from A6 grade. Ten course and distance runs without a win temper enthusiasm, and trap 4 is a below-average box at this grade winning around one in seven, but on current form he is the most solid, least speculative runner in the race.
Two wins from nine course and distance starts — one of only three previous winners at the trip in this field — and drawn in trap 2, one of the better boxes at this grade at 21.9%. Sharp early pace and a good first-bend figure mean he will be prominent from the boxes, but he tends to weaken late and was well beaten in this grade last week. If he pings the lids he could make it very awkward for the fancied pair.
A newcomer making her racecourse debut — every piece of her form is from solo trials, which tell you nothing about how she will handle traffic in a real race. Her latest trial here clocked 28.53 for the trip, respectable without being special. Trainer P Miller's 34% strike rate commands respect and she is drawn in the best box at this grade, but dogs who have never raced in a pack can run green, drift about and find trouble. Unproven in open racing and impossible to assess from trial form alone — a pure guess at any price.
Consistent without winning much — one win and four placings from nine course and distance runs, and his last four efforts have all been rated in the tight 47-50 band. He is outpaced early and relies on a strong finish, which is a tough way to make a living at this track. Fourth here last week; another honest mid-division effort looks the likeliest outcome unless the leaders overdo it badly.
The best first-bend figure in the race and plenty of early dash, but she is drawn in trap 6, which wins barely one in ten at this grade — the worst box on the card tonight. Her form since dropping from A6 grade has been moderate, with a rated-63 peak four runs back the only bright spot, and she tends to fade in the closing stages. The draw looks a killer for a dog whose whole game is the first two bends.
Key insight: 932 runs at A7 over 450m. Trap 3 best at 22.6%, trap 6 worst at 10.8%. The fastest dog in the field wins 23.6% at this grade — comfortably the most reliable single guide, and better than any ratings-based measure.
T1:13.3% T2:21.9% T3:22.6% T4:14.4% T5:18.3% T6:10.8%
932 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 450m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Currans Dodge | 32 | 68 | Closer |
2Milestone Mo | 51 | 50 | All-Rounder |
3Slinky Dog Dash | 39 | 55 | Closer |
4Shinjim Magic | 49 | 50 | All-Rounder |
5Velvet George | 65 | 31 | Fader |
6Hollyhill King | 63 | 33 | Fader |
Only runs at exactly 450m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (450m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 261m | 330m | 450m | 525m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Milestone Mo | 0.624 | — | 0.614 | — |
| 3 | Slinky Dog Dash | — | — | 0.620 | — |
| 4 | Shinjim Magic | — | — | 0.615 | — |
| 5 | Velvet George | — | — | 0.610 | — |
| 6 | Hollyhill King | 0.638 | 0.538 | 0.609 | 0.563 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.