Michael Pallas Stag Do Stakes
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Roaming Jetd 4yREP 16 | G Strike — 20% R424 W85 P225 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 42 | 64 (1) | 43 (3) | 40 (5) | 46 (3) | 43 (4) | 40 (5) | 55 (2) | 54 (2) | 56 (3) | 38 (6) | 24 | 17 | 40 | 23 | 49 | 38 | 6 | 8/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Monroe Milod 2yREP 10 | P Miller — 20% R610 W124 P337 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 61 | 51 | 54 (2) | 60 (2) | 61 (2) | 66 (1) | 49 (3) | 40 (5) | 49 (5) | 55 (1) | 39 (2) | - | 44 | 39 | 31 | 44 | 55 | 55 | 1 | 5/4F | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Mustang Poppyb 1yREP 7 | D Blackbird — 16% R1106 W178 P611 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 36 | 51 (4) | 59 (3) | 54 (5) | 74 (1) | 41 (5) | 57 (2) | 44 (5) | 47 (4) | 38 (5) | 45 (4) | 23 | 25 | 18 | 22 | 53 | 39 | 3 | 16/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Baby Centurionb 3yREP 7 | G Strike — 20% R424 W85 P225 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 54 | 47 (3) | 55 (2) | 66 (1) | 52 (3) | 49 (3) | 46 (4) | 53 (4) | 38 (5) | 38 (6) | 55 (3) | 32 | 32 | 10 | 22 | 51 | 43 | 2 | 9/4 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Strike It Hannahb 1yREP 8 | P Miller — 20% R610 W124 P337 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 49 | 48 (4) | 50 (2) | 39 (5) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 18 | 14 | 6 | 14 | 46 | 33 | 4 | 7/2 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Marinas Quebecd 3yREP 19 | G Strike — 20% R424 W85 P225 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | 58 | 50 (4) | 40 (6) | 36 (6) | 47 (4) | 68 (1) | 48 (4) | 50 (4) | 67 (1) | 56 (4) | 39 (6) | 22 | 23 | 31 | 16 | 49 | 35 | 5 | 7/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Monroe Milo | 27.82 | 28.32 | 28.06 | 57 | +0.24 | Top speed, 8/10 placed | |
| 4 | Baby Centurion | 27.87 | 28.37 | 28.41 | 51 | +0.54 | Prominent type | |
| 6 | Marinas Quebec | 28.14 | 28.40 | 28.43 | 45 | +0.29 | Leads, can fade | |
| 3 | Mustang Poppy | 28.16 | 28.37 | 28.18 | 51 | +0.02 | Worst trap at A6 | |
| 1 | Roaming Jet | 28.18 | 28.44 | 28.18 | 49 | 0.00 | Won LTO, steps up | |
| 5 | Strike It Hannah | 28.31 | 28.68 | 28.21 | 41 | -0.10 | Only 3 career runs |
The long gallop to Sunderland's awkward first bend defines the 450-metre trip, and at A6 grade the inside pays: trap 1 leads the way at 22.6% from 190 runs while trap 3 is the graveyard at 14.7%. This is a grade where raw speed is the most trustworthy guide — the fastest dog in the field wins more often here than any ratings-based measure. That dog is Monroe Milo, who also brings the best ratings and the best course record in the race. Marinas Quebec and Baby Centurion supply the early pace from the outside and middle; Mustang Poppy and Roaming Jet are the late runners hoping the leaders tire up the long home straight, which at this grade they frequently do.
The standout on every meaningful measure: fastest in the field on the clock, best overall ratings, and a fine course record of two wins and six placings from ten starts over this course and distance — in the frame eight times from ten. Second here last week, and trainer P Miller operates at a 34% strike rate, the strongest kennel signal on the card. He settles just off the early pace and finishes strongly. The only quibbles: late runners have to work harder than most at this track, and Sunderland's 450 metres has a habit of tripping up even the most solid profiles — hence measured rather than maximum confidence.
Won here last week in A7 grade with a rated-64 run — clear of anything he had shown in months — and steps up on the back of it. Drawn in trap 1, the best box at this grade, winning better than one in five. He is outpaced early and relies on a late run, but that winning effort came exactly the same way, so the pattern can work for him. The one to fear if last week lit a fire.
Second-fastest of these on raw speed and a strong finisher who hit a rated-74 effort four runs back. The problem is geography: she is drawn in trap 3, the worst box at this grade winning under 15%, and the weakest first-bend figure in the race means she is likely to be buried early from the middle. A string of recent handicap outings has kept her sharp, but the draw is a serious handicap of its own.
Good early dash and the second-best first-bend figure in the field — he will be prominent from the boxes and third here last week shows he is in decent heart. Hit a rated-66 peak three runs back. He can weaken in the closing stages, and one win from ten course and distance starts says he is more placer than winner, but he will give them something to chase into the straight.
Just three career runs and still finding her feet — one placing from three starts at this course and distance and the slowest speed figure in the race. Three runs is far too few to call her average established, so there may be more to come, but she has not raced since 24 June and everything about this is a learning exercise against more seasoned rivals.
Drops from A5 company and brings the best first-bend figure in the race — he will be flying early from the wide draw, which is a respectable box at this grade. Two wins from ten course and distance starts and a rated-68 peak five runs back. The pattern is familiar, though: sharp early, weakens late. If he gets an uncontested lead he is dangerous; taken on, he will come back to them up the straight.
Key insight: 1,391 runs at A6 over 450m. Trap 1 best at 22.6%, trap 3 worst at 14.7%. Ratings-based measures barely separate the ranks at this grade — the fastest dog in the field, winning 22.6%, is the most reliable single signal.
T1:22.6% T2:19.4% T3:14.7% T4:17.6% T5:16.5% T6:19.7%
1,391 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 450m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Roaming Jet | 38 | 65 | Closer |
2Monroe Milo | 51 | 55 | Closer |
3Mustang Poppy | 35 | 66 | Closer |
4Baby Centurion | 52 | 39 | All-Rounder |
5Strike It Hannah | 49 | 45 | All-Rounder |
6Marinas Quebec | 56 | 28 | Fader |
Only runs at exactly 450m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (450m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 450m | 480m | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roaming Jet | 0.632 | — |
| 2 | Monroe Milo | 0.629 | — |
| 3 | Mustang Poppy | 0.630 | 0.631 |
| 4 | Baby Centurion | 0.630 | — |
| 5 | Strike It Hannah | 0.637 | — |
| 6 | Marinas Quebec | 0.631 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.