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Castleisland / Scart / Ballymac Stakes Final
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Timtamd 2y 16 | - | - | 49 | - | 57 (3) | 74 (1) | 56 (3) | 66 (2) | 67 (2) | 63 (4) | 48 (5) | 79 (1) | 69 (2) | 58 (3) | 2 | 36 | 26 | 35 | 63 | 47 | 2 | 10/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Bounard Joanieb 2y 7 | - | - | 49 | - | 82 (1) | 68 (3) | 42 (5) | 46 (4) | 40 (6) | 63 (5) | 48 (6) | 74 (2) | 48 (5) | 37 (6) | 25 | 15 | 19 | 19 | 58 | 45 | 3 | 5/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Moorstown Brunod 1y 13 | - | - | 36 | - | 68 (2) | 64 (2) | 51 (2) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 18 | 18 | 42 | 62 | 41 | 6 | 2/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Beginish Jackd 1y 3 | - | - | 51 | - | 67 (3) | 66 (3) | 53 (3) | 46 (5) | 48 (4) | 39 (5) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 56 | 42 | 5 | 10/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Ballymac Agathab 1y 33 | Liam Dowling — 30% R37 W11 P27 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | - | 86 (1) | 53 (5) | 61 (4) | 73 (2) | 74 (1) | 48 (4) | - | - | - | - | 21 | 50 | 21 | 29 | 67 | 46 | 1 | 1/2f | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Bobsleigh Baled 2y 6 | - | - | 57 | - | 70 (2) | 46 (6) | 51 (4) | 43 (3) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 18 | 18 | 16 | 54 | 47 | 4 | 10/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Bounard Joanie | 29.01 | 29.96 | 29.01 | 49 | 0.00 | Won semi | |
| 6 | Bobsleigh Bale | 29.11 | 29.42 | — | 57 | — | Fastest rating | |
| 4 | Beginish Jack | 29.17 | 29.63 | — | 51 | — | 0 from 6 C&D | |
| 1 | Timtam | 29.25 | 29.62 | 29.63 | 49 | +0.38 | 2W 5P C&D | |
| 5 | Ballymac Agatha | 29.37 | 29.42 | 28.45 | 47 | -0.92 | Won semi 86 | |
| 3 | Moorstown Bruno | 29.65 | 29.65 | — | 36 | — | 3 career runs |
Tralee's 525 at A5 grade is a graveyard for market leaders — the top-rated dog on overall figures wins just 13.6% here from 176 runs, and the third-ranked dog actually converts more often at 19.2%, so upsets are the norm rather than the exception. The fastest dog in the field is a far better guide at 23.7%. Trap 3 is the best box at 17.4% from 184 runs and trap 2 the worst at 11.1%. This Castleisland/Scart/Ballymac Stakes Final brings together two semi-final winners in Bounard Joanie and Ballymac Agatha, with Agatha's 86 the top rating of the round. Expect Bobsleigh Bale — the quickest of these on the clock — to be prominent early from the wide box, with Agatha's proven finishing strength the biggest weapon in the closing stages. With both fancied runners drawn in statistically cold boxes, this is a race to treat with some caution.
The form pick. Her 86 winning her semi-final was the best rating anyone produced in either heat, her 67 average is comfortably the strongest body of work in this field, and she hit 73-74 ratings consistently in A4 company before dropping in grade. All graded form, no trials. Trainer Liam Dowling operates at a 30% strike rate, the kind of number that separates close calls. The caveats are real — trap 5 wins only 12.2% at this grade and she isn't the quickest of these on raw times — but at a grade where the top of the market falls over constantly, the dog with the best proven form and the hottest trainer is the sensible side to be on.
The fastest of these on Tralee form ratings and second in his semi with a 70 — a career best after dropping from A4 grade. Lightly raced with four career runs, so there may be more to come. At a grade where the quickest dog wins nearly one in four, his early dash from the wide box makes him the most obvious danger, though trap 6 wins only 11.7% at this level and his three course and distance starts have produced just one place.
The most experienced course campaigner in the final — two wins and five places from nine runs over this course and distance, and third in his semi last week. His form has slipped a touch from the A4 company he was keeping earlier in the year, but a 74 two starts back shows the ability is intact. From a fair draw he's the each-way angle if the fancied pair fluff their lines.
Won her semi-final with an 82-rated run and owns the fastest single course time in this field at 29.01 — but that clocking is months old, and between it and last week's win her ratings dipped into the 40s while dropping down from A3 company. All graded form, no trials. Trap 2 has been the coldest box at this grade, winning barely one race in nine, which is a real structural knock against an inconsistent profile.
Just three career runs — a novice event, then two eye-catching efforts at this level including a 68-rated second in his semi. He lands the statistically best box at this grade and is clearly on an upward curve, but with one course and distance start and no established clock he asks you to take plenty on trust in a final. Improver with a squeak rather than a solid pick.
Third in his semi with a 67, backing up a 66 the run before — his two best career efforts, arriving at the right time after climbing from A8 grade. The knock is stark: six course and distance runs without a single win or place, and his mid-pack 29.17 best time doesn't suggest he's been unlucky. Trap 4 is a decent box here, but he needs a career best to win this.
Key insight: Upsets rule at A5 — the top-rated dog wins only 13.6% while the third-ranked wins 19.2% from ~190 runs each. The fastest dog in the field is the best single guide at 23.7%. T3/T4 are the boxes to be in.
T1:14.2% T2:11.1% T3:17.4% T4:16.9% T5:12.2% T6:11.7%
1,100 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 525m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 525m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (525m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 325m | 525m | 570m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Timtam | — | 0.564 | — |
| 2 | Bounard Joanie | — | 0.571 | 0.575 |
| 3 | Moorstown Bruno | — | 0.559 | — |
| 4 | Beginish Jack | — | 0.565 | — |
| 5 | Ballymac Agatha | 0.558 | 0.557 | — |
| 6 | Bobsleigh Bale | — | 0.562 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.