| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Furry Neckb 4y 15 | A N J Morgan — 15% R1224 W188 P639 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 56 | - | 29 (1) | 21 (5) | 28 (2) | 23 (3) | 31 (1) | 30 (1) | 23 (3) | 21 (3) | 23 (3) | 28 (1) | 40 | 41 | 28 | 46 | 26 | 31 | 2 | 2/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Quare Surpriseb 5y 18 | D S Davy — 21% R435 W93 P271 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 54 | - | 25 (3) | 21 (6) | 25 (3) | 59 (2) | 57 (3) | 59 (4) | 67 (3) | 56 (5) | 22 (1) | 75 (1) | 32 | 35 | - | - | 23 | 22 | 1 | 4/9F | - | |
| 3 | ▶ One Sizzlerd 4y 26 | J A Danahar — 18% R332 W61 P189 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 56 | - | 17 (5) | 28 (1) | 19 (3) | 23 (3) | 20 (4) | 22 (2) | 33 (5) | 21 (3) | 24 (2) | 13 (6) | 18 | 12 | 14 | 28 | 22 | 22 | 3 | 10/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Flomur Fionab 3y 5 | A N J Morgan — 15% R1224 W188 P639 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | - | 27 (1) | 23 (2) | 19 (4) | 27 (1) | 23 (2) | 26 (2) | 22 (2) | 16 (6) | 26 (2) | 24 (2) | 31 | 21 | 27 | 53 | 24 | 27 | 5 | 10/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Flomur Smokieb 3y 8 | A N J Morgan — 15% R1224 W188 P639 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 36 | - | 26 (1) | 21 (2) | 26 (1) | 18 (3) | 14 (5) | 23 (2) | 26 (1) | 16 (5) | 15 (5) | 15 (4) | 1 | 17 | 5 | 31 | 20 | 19 | 6 | 25/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Dry Morningd 4y 25 | A N J Morgan — 15% R1224 W188 P639 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | - | 20 (5) | 18 (5) | 23 (4) | 27 (2) | 29 (1) | 24 (2) | 19 (3) | 17 (4) | 15 (6) | 16 (5) | 21 | 16 | 10 | 21 | 21 | 19 | 4 | 6/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Dry Morning | 16.39 | 17.04 | 16.97 | 51 | +0.58 | Best trap | |
| 1 | Furry Neck | 16.51 | 16.79 | 16.89 | 56 | +0.38 | Won last time, 4 wins from 10 C&D | |
| 3 | One Sizzler | 16.53 | 17.03 | 16.53 | 56 | 0.00 | Won last time | |
| 4 | Flomur Fiona | 16.67 | 17.01 | 16.84 | 49 | +0.17 | Won last time, worst trap | |
| 2 | Quare Surprise | 16.76 | 16.76 | 16.76 | 54 | 0.00 | Dropping from A4 | |
| 5 | Flomur Smokie | 16.95 | 17.26 | 17.12 | 36 | +0.17 | Slowest in field |
A fourth D-grade sprint over the minimum trip, and the same rule applies every time at Valley — there's no time to make up ground once the leaders clear the first bend. At D5 grade, trap 6 has been the standout box at 24.2%, with trap 4 the weakest at 14.0%. The fastest recorded time in the field wins 30% of these races. Furry Neck won last time out from a modest draw and owns the strongest course and distance record in the field, and gets a workable box tonight. Quare Surprise, dropping down sharply from A4 grade, has the early speed to be involved but her recent grade-A form doesn't yet show up in her times over this trip.
Won last time out and owns the strongest course and distance record in this field, with four wins from ten starts at this exact track and trip. His recorded times are among the sharpest in the race and his recent form has been tight and professional throughout. Trap 1 hasn't been the standout box at this grade, but with the best overall profile in the race — pace, proven course knowledge, and a recent win — he's the clear pick.
Drops down sharply from A4 grade racing, a notably higher level than tonight's field, though the only run recorded at this course and distance so far didn't go her way. She carries good early speed and a fair box in trap 2, which has been a solid-performing draw at this grade. If the class edge from her recent grade tells, she's fast enough to trouble the front two.
Won last time out and shares the fastest recorded time in this field, so there's plenty to like on the clock. Trap 3 hasn't been a strong box at this grade though, and he tends to weaken in the closing stages after a bright start, which is a risk if this race turns into a battle rather than a canter. A fair top-three claim rather than an banker.
Also won last time out and has been racing consistently well at this grade, with eight places from ten course and distance starts showing she's rarely far away. Trap 4 has been the weakest box at this grade though, which is a real obstacle to overcome from a wide field. Each-way claims given the poor draw.
The slowest recorded dog in this field by a clear margin, and while she has a couple of course and distance wins on her record, her recent times don't suggest she can trouble the pace-setters here. A reasonable box in trap 5 isn't enough to offset the gap on the clock. Hard to fancy for anything more than minor honours.
Gets the best draw on the card — trap 6 has produced almost a quarter of the winners at this grade. His recorded times are respectable without matching the very fastest in the field, and he's coming off a below-par run last time. The draw alone keeps him firmly in these calculations against a field with faster individual form.
Key insight: Trap 6 is the standout box at D5 grade, winning 24.2% from 269 runs. The fastest recorded time in the field wins 30.4%, the strongest signal at this grade.
T1:15.5% T2:21.4% T3:15.7% T4:14.0% T5:22.6% T6:24.2%
1,924 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 260m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 260m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (260m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 260m | 460m | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Furry Neck | 0.646 | — |
| 2 | Quare Surprise | 0.643 | 0.631 |
| 3 | One Sizzler | 0.654 | 0.659 |
| 4 | Flomur Fiona | 0.654 | — |
| 5 | Flomur Smokie | 0.663 | — |
| 6 | Dry Morning | 0.655 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.