| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Tommys Dollyb 2y 7 | S Watson — 28% R432 W122 P294 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 58 | - | 31 (2) | 28 (4) | 30 (3) | 28 (3) | 28 (4) | 20 (6) | 20 (6) | 25 (5) | 41 (1) | 41 (1) | 41 | 37 | 45 | 32 | 29 | 32 | 1 | 10/11F | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Lissan Brod 5y 16 | C A Williams — 14% R354 W49 P174 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 44 | - | 24 (5) | 21 (6) | 22 (5) | 18 (5) | 27 (5) | 48 (5) | 27 (4) | 26 (6) | - | - | 12 | 20 | 34 | 16 | 23 | 23 | 4 | 12/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Mahomesd 3y 7 | D Calvert — 18% R594 W109 P341 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | - | 30 (3) | 27 (4) | 24 (4) | 24 (4) | 30 (3) | 28 (4) | 27 (4) | 34 (3) | 26 (5) | 29 (3) | 2 | 27 | - | 5 | 28 | 25 | 2 | 5/2 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Panaromad 3y 5 | C A Williams — 14% R354 W49 P174 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | - | 23 (5) | 30 (3) | 27 (5) | 30 (2) | 27 (3) | 29 (3) | 32 (1) | 17 (5) | 43 (2) | 45 (3) | 24 | 27 | 9 | 23 | 29 | 29 | 3 | 4/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Jazza Belleb 4y 16 | D Calvert — 18% R594 W109 P341 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | - | 28 (3) | 28 (2) | 28 (2) | 30 (3) | 23 (5) | 17 (5) | 24 (4) | 31 (3) | 24 (3) | 27 (2) | 23 | 21 | 16 | 16 | 26 | 26 | 5 | 9/2 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tommys Dolly | 17.13 | 17.51 | 17.50 | 58 | +0.37 | Model pick | |
| 6 | Jazza Belle | 17.44 | 17.63 | 17.53 | 50 | +0.09 | 0 wins from 10 at C&D | |
| 4 | Panaroma | 17.34 | 17.60 | 17.76 | 49 | +0.42 | ||
| 3 | Mahomes | 17.50 | 17.64 | 17.54 | 49 | +0.04 | 0 wins from 10 at C&D | |
| 2 | Lissan Bro | 17.62 | 17.76 | 17.62 | 44 | 0.00 | 0 wins from 7 at C&D |
The last race of the night is run over the minimum trip, where trap one has been the standout draw in this grade at just over 25% winners against trap five's 18% — a meaningful edge. Tommys Dolly races from that exact box and, while he's been slowly away in a couple of recent starts, he's shown enough gate speed on his best efforts to make the most of the draw if he breaks alertly. Panaroma is fast to the bend from the middle before fading, and Jazza Belle races out wide with a habit of arriving with a well-timed run. If Tommys Dolly gets away cleanly from the rail, the fastest dog in the field in the best box is a hard combination to beat at this trip.
Hasn't won in his last six starts, but he's rarely been far away — three placed finishes in that run and nothing worse than mid-table even in his flattest efforts. He's the fastest dog in this field on the clock by a clear margin, holding the best recorded time, the best average and the fastest last run, and he's drawn in trap one, the strongest box in this grade at just over 25% winners. His trainer has an excellent record at these conditions, close to 27%. The lack of a recent win is the only knock against an otherwise outstanding profile — the clock, the draw and the trainer all point the same way.
Very honest without winning either — three placed finishes from her last four starts, quick away and racing up with the pace from out wide. Second-fastest in this field on the clock, not far behind the selection, and her last run practically matches her personal best. The concern is a blank course-and-distance record from ten runs at this trip, and her trainer's record at these conditions is on the weaker side. Fast enough and consistent enough to be the second string, even without a big structural case behind her.
A fifth last time out after being checked continues a mixed run, though there was a strong second a few starts back where he ran on well from the middle. A fast-early type who tends to lose ground in the closing stages, which can be a factor at this minimum trip if the sprint finish is truly fast. Fourth on the clock in this field. His course-and-distance record is modest at one win from eight. His trainer has a fair record at these conditions. Capable of forcing a fast pace but the fading tendency and modest course form limit the claims.
Consistently mid-table without ever really threatening — no better than third in his last six starts, generally finishing around fourth. Third on the clock in this field, close to the pace-setters, and drawn in trap three, a fair box at this trip. His course-and-distance record shows no wins from ten runs at this trip, a genuine concern given how many attempts he's had. His trainer's record at these conditions is on the weaker side. Honest but yet to find the finishing touch here.
Struggling for form — nothing better than fifth in his last five starts, and a couple of runs at the much longer 483-metre trip in there too, muddying the picture further. Slowest dog in this field on the clock right now, some way off a competitive figure at this level. His course-and-distance record is blank from seven runs. His trainer has a fair record at these conditions, the one point in his favour. Very little to recommend him against this opposition on the current evidence.
Key insight: Trap one is the standout draw in this grade at just over 25% winners, and it's exactly where the fastest dog in the field — heavily favoured by the underlying model — happens to be drawn.
Trap 1: 25.3%, Trap 2: 23.0%, Trap 3: 20.8%, Trap 4: 21.2%, Trap 6: 19.1%
1,817 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 275m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 275m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (275m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 275m | 450m | 483m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tommys Dolly | 0.637 | — | — |
| 2 | Lissan Bro | 0.646 | — | 0.647 |
| 3 | Mahomes | 0.641 | — | — |
| 4 | Panaroma | 0.640 | 0.651 | — |
| 6 | Jazza Belle | 0.641 | — | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.