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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Ferryforth Codyd 3y 24 | D Calvert — 18% R594 W109 P341 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 55 | 48 | 73 (2) | 59 (5) | 64 (2) | 80 (2) | 90 (1) | 67 (3) | 73 (2) | 87 (1) | 79 (2) | 67 (4) | 40 | 47 | 24 | 57 | 72 | 54 | 2 | 4/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Ballymac Ivannab 3y 17 | S J L Lapidge — 18% R311 W55 P179 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 44 | 54 | 44 (3) | 56 (3) | 65 (2) | 100 (1) | 81 (3) | 75 (2) | 69 (3) | 85 (1) | 84 (1) | 71 (3) | 47 | 40 | - | 28 | 69 | 49 | 4 | 14/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Ivy Hill Stellab 2y 11 | D Calvert — 18% R594 W109 P341 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 54 | 88 (1) | 88 (1) | 61 (4) | 55 (4) | 84 (1) | 50 (5) | 85 (1) | 53 (5) | 85 (1) | 72 (2) | 59 | 76 | 51 | 59 | 74 | 62 | 3 | 3/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Dannys Flyerd 3y 35 | D Calvert — 18% R594 W109 P341 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 39 | 41 | 30 (4) | 53 (5) | 30 (4) | 67 (3) | 85 (1) | 35 (3) | 25 (4) | 33 (5) | 40 (1) | 34 (2) | 37 | 37 | - | 20 | 67 | 39 | 6 | 20/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ On The Walld 2y 8 | J W Gaskin — 31% R276 W85 P205 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 66 | 59 | 60 (5) | 62 (4) | 86 (1) | 88 (1) | 76 (2) | 73 (2) | 87 (1) | 62 (1) | 42 (5) | 72 (2) | 44 | 74 | 65 | 62 | 71 | 67 | 1 | 4/7F | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Foxwood Carterd 3y 14 | R J Overton — 18% R352 W63 P220 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 49 | 32 (6) | 57 (4) | 62 (1) | 41 (4) | 74 (2) | 72 (4) | 85 (1) | 79 (3) | 56 (5) | 85 (1) | 40 | 37 | 31 | 36 | 59 | 47 | 5 | 6/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | On The Wall | 29.36 | 29.72 | 29.65 | 66 | +0.29 | Top-rated | |
| 1 | Ferryforth Cody | 29.56 | 29.86 | 29.93 | 55 | +0.37 | ||
| 3 | Ivy Hill Stella | 29.73 | 29.96 | 29.80 | 53 | +0.07 | Model pick | |
| 6 | Foxwood Carter | 29.52 | 29.83 | 30.55 | 47 | +1.03 | ||
| 2 | Ballymac Ivanna | 29.69 | 29.97 | 30.39 | 44 | +0.70 | ||
| 4 | Dannys Flyer | 29.73 | 30.03 | 30.63 | 39 | +0.90 | 275m/483m switcher |
This is the quality race of the card, a genuine A1 stayers' test at Doncaster's staying trip where trap six has produced the most winners in this grade so far at over 29% and trap four the fewest at under 10%. On The Wall races from out wide and likes to force a fast pace early before weakening late, while Ivy Hill Stella has been doing her racing from the middle and simply leading the whole way in her recent wins — a dangerous combination when she's in this kind of form. Ferryforth Cody sits just off the pace from the rail, ready to pick up the pieces if the front two duel too hard early. With genuine class runners dropping in from Open Race company throughout this field, this looks the most competitive heat of the night.
In the form of her life right now — she won at Open Race level, the very top of British racing, last time out, and the run before that was also a win, at this exact grade, leading throughout both times. That's three wins from her last six starts and her recent trajectory is emphatically pointing up, not down. She isn't the fastest dog in this field on the raw clock, but her course-and-distance record is outstanding, five wins from ten runs at this trip and track. Her trainer has a decent record at these conditions and drawn in trap three, a solid if unspectacular box. Two wins on the bounce at the toughest level this field has faced makes her the one in the form to beat.
Has dropped a long way down from Open Race company and the ratings still rate her the fastest dog in this field by some distance, holding the best recorded time, the best average and the fastest last run of anyone here. The recent efforts have cooled off though — fifth and fourth in her last two starts, a step down from the two wins further back in the sequence. Races wide with plenty of early speed but tends to lose ground late, which is a real concern at this staying trip if the pace gets serious. Her trainer has a superb record at these conditions, albeit from a tiny sample. The fastest dog in the race on the clock and the main danger to the selection, but the recent dip in form is a genuine worry.
An interesting mover between distances — recent starts have alternated between this staying trip and the minimum sprint, an unusual pattern that makes him hard to pin down. There is a win at this exact grade further back in the form, showing he has ability at this level on his day, but the last couple of runs at 483 metres have been modest. Slowest dog in this field on the raw clock right now. Trap four is statistically the weakest box in this grade by some distance, under 10% winners, a real obstacle on top of the current form dip. A confusing profile that's hard to have confidence in tonight.
A second last time out at this exact grade continues a solid run of form, with a win at Open Race level further back in the sequence too — this is a battle-hardened performer with plenty of quality on his card. Second-fastest in this field on the clock and races from the rail, showing good early pace before tending to fade late. His course-and-distance record is respectable at two wins from eight. His trainer shares conditions form with the pick's yard. A fair third string with genuine class credentials, capable of running into the frame again.
Mixed recent form — a sixth last time out after being checked early, though there's a win at the grade below in the sequence and a couple of competitive efforts at this level too. Drawn in trap six, the best-performing box in this grade at over 29% winners, which is a genuine structural plus. Races wide and shows good gate speed but tends to weaken in the closing stages. His trainer's record at these conditions is moderate. The draw is doing him a favour tonight even if the recent form doesn't inspire total confidence.
A third last time out continues a run of minor placings, though there's a notable win at 661 metres further back that shows she stays every yard of ground when in the mood. Not among the quicker dogs in this field on the raw clock. Her course-and-distance record is fair at two wins from six. Her trainer hasn't had a winner at these conditions from a very small sample. Some deep staying ability on show but not quite fast enough to trouble the pace-setters in this line-up.
Key insight: Two dogs in this field have won at Open Race level in their last two starts between them — this is a considerably stronger renewal than the grade suggests, and current form matters more here than the raw ratings.
Trap 1: 22.6%, Trap 2: 27.7%, Trap 3: 23.7%, Trap 4: 9.7%, Trap 5: 25.4%, Trap 6: 29.3%
376 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 483m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Ferryforth Cody | 0 | 33 | Fader |
2Ballymac Ivanna | 0 | 100 | Closer |
3Ivy Hill Stella | 53 | 67 | Closer |
4Dannys Flyer | 47 | 82 | Closer |
5On The Wall | 100 | 0 | Fader |
6Foxwood Carter | 100 | 0 | Fader |
Only runs at exactly 483m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (483m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 275m | 450m | 480m | 483m | 661m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ferryforth Cody | — | 0.620 | — | 0.618 | 0.651 |
| 2 | Ballymac Ivanna | — | 0.628 | — | 0.621 | 0.644 |
| 3 | Ivy Hill Stella | — | — | — | 0.620 | — |
| 4 | Dannys Flyer | 0.630 | — | — | 0.622 | — |
| 5 | On The Wall | — | 0.622 | 0.609 | 0.615 | — |
| 6 | Foxwood Carter | — | 0.624 | — | 0.618 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.