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ARC Standard Trophy
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Toolmaker Quickd 3y 32 | E O Driver — 22% R301 W66 P181 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | 28 | 78 (3) | 68 (3) | 56 (6) | 70 (5) | 83 (2) | 61 (4) | 68 (4) | 67 (3) | 63 (4) | 61 (5) | 18 | 3 | 11 | - | 69 | 25 | 4 | 12/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Zappad 2y 25 | C Weatherall — 17% R98 W17 P53 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 57 | 61 | 90 (1) | 66 (4) | 57 (5) | 75 (2) | 93 (1) | 79 (2) | 43 (6) | 76 (3) | 82 (2) | 54 (5) | 51 | 14 | 40 | 61 | 73 | 54 | 3 | 5/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Romeo Abilityd 2y 17 | P Janssens — 25% R53 W13 P38 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 70 | 72 | 82 (5) | 90 (2) | 84 (1) | 94 (2) | 58 (1) | 79 (5) | 43 (3) | 64 (4) | 55 (5) | - | 62 | 54 | 28 | 48 | 77 | 64 | 1 | 3/10F | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Unlikely Barryd 3yN/R 14 | J L Smith — 19% R90 W17 P50 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 22 | 56 | 33 (5) | 56 (4) | 56 (5) | 69 (2) | 71 (2) | 69 (2) | 55 (3) | 74 (1) | 98 (1) | 54 (5) | 1 | - | 30 | 26 | 59 | 30 | - | - | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Magical Supremed 2y 27 | S R Parker — 30% R70 W21 P46 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 56 | 3 | 90 (1) | 78 (2) | 81 (2) | 87 (1) | 90 (1) | 92 (1) | 56 (2) | 93 (1) | 79 (3) | 58 (2) | 59 | - | 49 | - | 83 | 51 | 2 | 5/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toolmaker Quick | 29.35 | 29.47 | 29.58 | 46 | +0.23 | 9-month layoff | |
| 2 | Zappa | 28.80 | 29.42 | 29.43 | 57 | +0.63 | Won last (same conditions) | |
| 3 | Romeo Ability | 28.62 | 29.22 | 29.01 | 70 | +0.39 | Fastest in field | |
| 4 | Unlikely Barry | 29.53 | 29.89 | 30.69 | 22 | +1.16 | Below-par last time | |
| 6 | Magical Supreme | 29.26 | 29.26 | 29.26 | 56 | 0.00 | Steps up from OR3 |
Nottingham's 500m trip usually rewards the inside draws through its tight opening bend, and that broadly holds at this level too, though it's trap 4 rather than trap 1 that's edged narrowly clear at 23.5% from the conditions data. What stands out at OR grade specifically is that raw speed alone has been a poor guide - the fastest dog in the field has won barely one in ten races here, well below what's normal, so course knowledge and recent conditions form carry more weight than the clock. Zappa ticks that box perfectly, having won her last start in these exact conditions - same track, same trip, same grade. Romeo Ability is the fastest of this bunch by a distance and has been running to a high level throughout, giving her every right to figure. Magical Supreme has the best average figures on paper and arrives in excellent form, but she steps up from OR3, has no proven form at this course or distance, and trap 6 has drawn a blank from 35 runs at this grade - a serious question mark. Toolmaker Quick has been off the track since last October and, while capable on old form, this is very much stepping into the unknown.
Won her last start in exactly these conditions - same track, same trip, same grade - which is about as strong a piece of evidence as this sport offers. The second-fastest recorded time in the field, races flexibly and can sit up with the pace or come from behind, and her suitability figures for this course and distance are among the best in the race. Trap 2 has been a solid rather than spectacular box at this grade, but with course form this strong that's a minor concern. The obvious first line of attack.
The fastest dog in this field by a clear margin on the clock and has been racing to a consistently high level, with a peak effort well above anything the rest of this field has shown. Tends to lead but can lose ground late, and the draw - trap 3 - hasn't been among the stronger boxes at this grade. If she can carry her speed further than usual she's fully capable of beating the selection.
Hasn't raced since last October, a lengthy absence that makes this very much a leap into the unknown regardless of what she showed before the break. The slowest recorded time in the field and no recent form to lean on. Hard to have any confidence in a fitness level after this long away. One to watch rather than back.
The best trap in the conditions data at this grade, but the form doesn't back it up - a well below-par effort last time out and the slowest recorded time in this field. Capable of better but needs to find a lot of improvement to be involved with this grade of rival.
The best average figures in the race and in excellent recent form, stepping up from OR3 after a straightforward win last time. The concerns are all structural rather than about ability: no proven form at this course or trip, and trap 6 hasn't produced a single winner from 35 runs at this grade. Watch the market for guidance.
Key insight: Raw speed has been a surprisingly weak guide at this level - the fastest dog in the field wins only 10.4% of the time, while trap 6 has blanked completely from 35 runs, making course fit and trap position the deciding factors rather than the clock.
T1:21.1% T2:20.8% T3:15.4% T4:23.5% T5:5.0% T6:0.0%
288 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 500m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Toolmaker Quick | 0 | 100 | Closer |
2Zappa | 50 | 50 | All-Rounder |
3Romeo Ability | 63 | 0 | Fader |
4Unlikely Barry | 0 | 100 | Closer |
6Magical Supreme | 52 | 0 | All-Rounder |
Only runs at exactly 500m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (500m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 450m | 480m | 483m | 491m | 500m | 525m | 575m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toolmaker Quick | 0.617 | 0.608 | — | — | 0.589 | — | 0.631 |
| 2 | Zappa | — | 0.602 | — | — | 0.588 | — | — |
| 3 | Romeo Ability | — | — | — | 0.604 | 0.585 | — | — |
| 6 | Magical Supreme | 0.612 | — | 0.608 | — | 0.585 | 0.545 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.