Loading...
The Future Of Racing: PGR TV Stakes
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Jillulie Blueb 4y 16 | K Wilton — 25% R203 W51 P116 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 38 | 39 | 41 (4) | 60 (1) | 47 (3) | 46 (5) | 33 (6) | 43 (5) | 35 (6) | 34 (6) | 40 (5) | 34 (6) | 25 | 24 | 25 | 16 | 44 | 35 | 5 | 3/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Lurriga Lassieb 2y 6 | P J Wilson — 12% R91 W11 P31 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 52 | 36 (5) | 51 (2) | 53 (3) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 3 | 14 | 12 | 14 | 46 | 41 | 2 | 11/8F | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Crafty Can Dob 2y 7 | K Wilton — 25% R203 W51 P116 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | 58 | 46 (3) | 40 (5) | 43 (5) | 54 (2) | 26 (6) | 50 (2) | 48 (3) | 60 (1) | 51 (3) | 57 (4) | 22 | 26 | 16 | 20 | 46 | 40 | 3 | 8/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Basic Instinctd 5y 15 | J Llewellin — 15% R372 W56 P209 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 31 | 71 (1) | 48 (3) | 47 (6) | 51 (4) | 53 (2) | 37 (6) | 31 (5) | 41 (5) | 39 (6) | 40 (5) | 12 | 19 | 10 | 27 | 50 | 44 | 4 | 3/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Dairyland Roxyb 1y 2 | P J Wilson — 12% R91 W11 P31 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 61 | 45 (4) | 51 (2) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 15 | 6 | 14 | 48 | 40 | 1 | 4/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jillulie Blue | 31.42 | 31.81 | 32.12 | 38 | +0.70 | Slower than best | |
| 2 | Lurriga Lassie | 31.31 | 31.46 | 31.68 | 53 | +0.37 | Model pick | |
| 3 | Crafty Can Do | 31.16 | 31.60 | 32.10 | 46 | +0.94 | Fader profile | |
| 5 | Basic Instinct | 31.20 | 31.62 | 31.55 | 53 | +0.35 | Won last (HP) | |
| 6 | Dairyland Roxy | 31.54 | 31.56 | 31.58 | 49 | +0.04 | Only 2 runs |
Nottingham's 500m trip is normally a trap 1 track, with the inside box dominating history and outside dogs getting buried at the tricky first bend. But this A7 contest bucks that trend - the data at this exact grade shows trap 2 has been the money box lately, winning better than one in four, while trap 1 has actually been the weakest performer at under one in six. Lurriga Lassie gets that plum trap 2 draw and matches the fastest recorded time in the field, giving her a genuine speed-and-draw combination that this grade rewards. Basic Instinct looks the most talented dog on raw form and matches her for pace, but comes from trap 5 which has been only moderate at this level. Crafty Can Do and Jillulie Blue both carry the boost of trainer K Wilton, among the stronger operators in this conditions data, and both should be involved from their inside draws. Dairyland Roxy is fast away but with only two starts to her name, she's still an unknown quantity.
Drawn in trap 2, comfortably the best-performing box at this grade recently, winning better than one in four compared to barely one in six from trap 1. Matches the fastest recorded time in the field and finishes off her races strongly from off the pace, which suits a track where the inside three boxes tend to dominate. Only three starts to her name, stepping down a grade from A6 last time, so there's more to find out about her, but the draw and the pace numbers both point her way. The trainer's record here is modest, which is the one small mark against her.
The most talented dog on paper here - a career-best effort last time out, winning from the front despite that being a handicap race, and she matches the market leader for raw speed. Finishes powerfully once in gear. The knock is the draw: trap 5 has only been a moderate performer at this grade, and Nottingham's bend can punish dogs who lose ground early. If she gets a fair run through the pack she's fully capable of winning it.
Vastly the most experienced runner here, with a long unbroken run of starts over course and distance and a trainer who's among the sharper operators in this data. The surprise is that trap 1, usually the plum draw at Nottingham, has actually been the weakest box at this specific grade recently, and she's also the slowest on the clock in this field. Each-way claims rather than a straightforward one.
Fast into her stride and usually justifies plenty of market support, with a trainer among the better operators in this data set. Tends to lead but can weaken in the closing stages, which is a slight concern from a trap that hasn't been among the stronger performers at this grade lately. Third last time out and capable of finishing in the frame again.
Only two starts under her belt so there's limited evidence to go on, but she shows plenty of early speed and races from a trap that's held its own at this grade. Faded from a promising position last time out. Needs more experience before she can be fully trusted, but the raw pace is there if she settles.
Key insight: At A7 grade the top-rated dog only wins 18.4% of the time, below the venue's overall strength, and the trap pattern flips from the norm - trap 2 is the standout at 25.6% while trap 1 drops to just 16.7%.
T1:16.7% T2:25.6% T3:18.0% T4:12.4% T5:19.2% T6:21.9%
724 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 500m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Jillulie Blue | 43 | 50 | All-Rounder |
2Lurriga Lassie | 50 | 55 | Closer |
3Crafty Can Do | 65 | 10 | Fader |
5Basic Instinct | 32 | 92 | Closer |
6Dairyland Roxy | 66 | 12 | Fader |
Only runs at exactly 500m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.