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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Longacres Tommyd 2y 16 | P A Curtin — 16% R277 W45 P139 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | - | 58 (1) | 43 (3) | 53 (1) | 35 (2) | 41 (3) | 32 (5) | 32 (5) | 32 (1) | 29 (3) | 31 (3) | 36 | 30 | 2 | 11 | 31 | 41 | 2 | 12/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Blu Bertd 3y 46 | K Billingham-hine — 19% R558 W107 P309 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | - | - | 58 (5) | 88 (1) | 62 (4) | 72 (3) | 47 (6) | 72 (2) | 67 (3) | 92 (1) | 75 (3) | 72 (2) | 45 | 47 | - | - | 69 | 8 | 6 | 5/2 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ First Sightb 1y 5 | C D Marston — 17% R451 W75 P224 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | - | 31 (2) | 25 (5) | 76 (5) | 70 (4) | 36 (1) | 19 (6) | 69 (4) | 50 (6) | 59 (5) | 94 (1) | 31 | 23 | 20 | 23 | 27 | 40 | 1 | 9/4JF | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Winterfield Beard 3y 6 | C Jones — 16% R255 W41 P129 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | - | 37 (1) | 27 (3) | 36 (1) | 25 (4) | 35 (1) | 19 (6) | 18 (5) | 35 (1) | 45 (6) | 25 (5) | 34 | 28 | 40 | 34 | 28 | 41 | 5 | 7/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Swoop Swoopd 3y 111 | C D Marston — 17% R451 W75 P224 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 56 | - | 37 (1) | 31 (2) | 98 (1) | 26 (6) | 36 (1) | 24 (4) | 62 (5) | 28 (4) | 21 (5) | 85 (2) | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 29 | 45 | 3 | 9/4JF | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Jacktavern Cocob 1y 5 | C S Fereday — 16% R467 W75 P237 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 39 | - | 33 (2) | 23 (5) | 39 (5) | 42 (4) | 60 (1) | 46 (2) | 53 (1) | 26 (6) | 31 (5) | - | 32 | 27 | - | - | 23 | 30 | 4 | 9/2 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Longacres Tommy | — | — | — | 53 | — | Best trap, won LTO up in grade | |
| 2 | Blu Bert | All previous form at 480m - no evidence he stays this short a trip. | — | Never raced this trip | ||||
| 3 | First Sight | — | — | — | 50 | — | Modest form | |
| 4 | Winterfield Bear | — | — | — | 49 | — | Best trainer, good C&D | |
| 5 | Swoop Swoop | — | — | — | 56 | — | Model pick | |
| 6 | Jacktavern Coco | — | — | — | 39 | — | Weakest here | |
The minimum trip at Monmore is a different race entirely to the standard distance - trap 1 has been the dominant box at this D3 grade, winning almost a quarter of the time, while trap 2 has barely won one in eight. This one is complicated by Blu Bert, who steps down from a much higher grade and, crucially, has never raced this short a trip before - a genuine unknown that the model has marked down hard despite his gaudy raw performance figures from 480m company. Swoop Swoop looks the safer option, tops both the composite and speed ratings, and produced a near-career-best effort in these exact conditions only a couple of runs back. Longacres Tommy has the best draw in the race and arrives on the back of a good win, though his own proven form at this trip is thin. Winterfield Bear is the most consistent of the rest with a fair course and distance record.
Runner-up last time out at this exact grade and trip, and two runs back produced a near career-best effort in these identical conditions - proof she has real ability over this specific distance. Tops both the composite model and the speed figures in the field, and her suitability profile across trap, track, class and distance is the most balanced of anyone here. Trap 5 isn't the outstanding draw at this grade, but everything else about her case is built on genuine, relevant form rather than assumptions carried over from a different distance.
Won last time out at the tougher A8 grade over the standard 480m trip, a step up in class from this D3 sprint but also a significant cut in distance. Drawn in trap 1, comfortably the best box at this grade, which is a major plus over the minimum trip where the inside draw is so often decisive. His proven form at this specific shorter distance is thin, so there's a genuine question over whether the pace profile that worked at 480m carries over. On the trap alone he has to be respected.
Drops in dramatically from open-class racing at 480m, and the raw performance figures from that level are the best in this field by a distance. But he has never raced over this minimum trip before, and everything about his profile - his running style, his pace, his whole racing history - is built around a much longer distance. The model has marked him down hard as a result, and drawn in the worst trap at this grade only compounds the uncertainty. Could go well if the drop in trip suits, but this is close to a coin toss based on the evidence available.
Fifth last time out at this exact grade and distance, with volatile recent form - 25, 76, 70, 36, 19, 69 - that shows real ability on her day but little consistency. Trainer C D Marston's 24% strike rate is solid. One course and distance win from three attempts. Capable of a big run but hard to trust with real confidence given the swings.
Third last time out at this exact grade and distance, with the most consistent form in the field - 27, 36, 25, 35, 19, 18 - all clustered in a tight range. Trainer C Jones has the best strike rate in the race at 26%, and three wins from nine at this course and distance is a strong record. The trap isn't the strongest, but the reliability of the form and the trainer figures make her worth including.
Finished fifth last time out and sits bottom of the field on both the model and the speed figures. No course and distance win from a single attempt. Little in the profile to suggest a strong showing here.
Key insight: Trap 1 is the standout box at this grade (23.76% from 202 runs), with trap 2 a near dead draw at 12%. The top speed-rated dog wins 21.73% here, edging out the composite leader at 20.86%.
T1:23.76% T2:12.0% T3:20.16% T4:15.06% T5:16.31% T6:16.77%
1,516 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 264m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 264m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (264m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 210m | 245m | 260m | 264m | 275m | 305m | 480m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Longacres Tommy | — | — | — | 0.605 | — | — | 0.620 |
| 2 | Blu Bert | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.599 |
| 3 | First Sight | — | 0.623 | 0.640 | 0.605 | 0.633 | — | — |
| 4 | Winterfield Bear | 0.626 | — | — | 0.608 | — | — | — |
| 5 | Swoop Swoop | — | — | — | 0.605 | 0.626 | 0.608 | — |
| 6 | Jacktavern Coco | — | — | — | 0.605 | — | — | 0.617 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.