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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Aero Ezrad 2y 16 | R Taberner — 18% R734 W133 P409 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 55 | 43 | 34 (4) | 78 (1) | 58 (4) | 45 (6) | 64 (5) | 43 (1) | 39 (2) | 74 (1) | 69 (1) | 67 (6) | 45 | 45 | - | 60 | 65 | 55 | 2 | 2/1F | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Kick On Archied 2y 17 | K Billingham-hine — 19% R558 W107 P309 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 44 | 54 | 70 (2) | 52 (4) | 57 (5) | 61 (3) | 83 (6) | 43 (2) | 77 (6) | 54 (2) | 79 (5) | - | 37 | 14 | 12 | 16 | 63 | 44 | 5 | 9/4 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Whisky On Fireb 2y 15 | N J Hunt — 18% R341 W63 P180 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 33 | 61 | 63 (2) | 59 (5) | 43 (5) | 61 (3) | 75 (1) | 62 (3) | 66 (3) | 63 (5) | 61 (4) | 60 (3) | 33 | 49 | 9 | 29 | 59 | 37 | 6 | 4/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Economicalreasonb 1y 7 | K Billingham-hine — 19% R558 W107 P309 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 49 | 66 (3) | 86 (1) | 74 (1) | 59 (2) | 61 (2) | 52 (4) | 51 (2) | 60 (5) | 57 (4) | - | 40 | 28 | - | 48 | 66 | 53 | 4 | 7/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Aero Fumib 2y 8 | R Taberner — 18% R734 W133 P409 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 57 | 65 (5) | 55 (4) | 49 (4) | 82 (5) | 76 (1) | 44 (2) | 43 (6) | - | - | - | 45 | 53 | 32 | 30 | 60 | 51 | 3 | 5/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Longacres Keyb 1y 14 | P J Doocey — 17% R150 W26 P73 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 55 | 37 | 56 (4) | 68 (3) | 64 (3) | 73 (3) | 71 (2) | 76 (2) | 52 (5) | 77 (1) | 62 (2) | 73 (1) | 13 | 51 | 20 | 27 | 68 | 54 | 1 | 6/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aero Ezra | — | — | — | 55 | — | Model pick, best trap+trainer | |
| 2 | Kick On Archie | — | — | — | 44 | — | Placed LTO | |
| 3 | Whisky On Fire | — | — | — | 33 | — | Weakest on model | |
| 4 | Economicalreason | — | — | — | 52 | — | Career-best win LTO | |
| 5 | Aero Fumi | — | — | — | 51 | — | Open-class form, same trip | |
| 6 | Longacres Key | — | — | — | 55 | — | Danger, open-class form |
The night finishes with the strongest race on the card - trap 1 is the best-performing box at this A3 grade, and this is a level where Monmore's model has historically been much more dependable than in the middle grades. No fewer than three of these six have their last run in open company, making this a genuine quality field. Aero Ezra ticks almost every box - the best trap, top of both the composite and speed ratings, the best trainer on the card, and an outstanding record at this course and distance. Longacres Key and Aero Fumi both return from open racing at the identical trip with big performances in tow, while Economicalreason arrives on the back of an exceptional career-best win, albeit at a slightly easier grade. Whisky On Fire is the one struggling to find a way into this on the numbers. Expect a properly run race with the class of the field on full show.
Tops both the composite model and the speed figures in this field, drawn in trap 1, the best-performing box at this grade, and trained by R Taberner, whose 34% strike rate is the best on the card. His course and distance record is outstanding - three wins from four attempts at this exact track and trip. His most recent run came at a much easier grade over a shorter sprint trip, so it's worth looking past that one result to the broader picture, which is emphatically positive. Every major factor lines up in his favour here.
Won last time out with a career-best 86-rated performance - by some distance the best figure produced by anyone in this field recently, even if it came at the slightly easier A4 grade rather than today's A3. That sort of form doesn't happen by accident, and stepping up in grade off the back of it is a perfectly logical move for the trainer. Two course and distance wins from ten. If that level of form is repeatable, she wins this out of sight - the obvious threat to the selection.
Runner-up last time out at this exact grade and distance with a strong 70-rated effort. A fader by running style who likes to get to the front and try to hold on. No course and distance win from three attempts. Mid-to-lower on the model figures, but the recent placing keeps him in the each-way picture.
Last raced in open company, but that was over the sprint trip of 400m rather than today's 480m, and she finished fifth there - not the sort of formline that inspires confidence. Bottom of the field on both the composite and speed figures here. A front runner by style who likes to lead, which could set the race up for others if she can't sustain it. Hard to make a strong case.
Fourth last time out in open company at this identical trip, a solid effort against the very best. Trainer R Taberner shares the same 34% strike rate as the selection. Recent form has been strong throughout - 65, 55, 49, 82, 76, 44 - with genuine peaks well above this grade's requirements. Two course and distance wins from ten. A fair each-way alternative from a top yard.
Third last time out in open company at this identical trip, and rates the best of anyone in the field on raw average performance. Second on both the composite and speed figures behind only the selection. A confirmed closer with a big finishing kick, doing his best work in the closing stages. Two course and distance wins from nine. A thoroughly solid case just behind the top selection on the numbers.
Key insight: Trap 1 is the strongest box at this grade (21.91% from 178 runs), with trap 6 the weakest at 13.61%. Upper grades like this are historically where Monmore's model performs at its best, well clear of the track's troublesome middle-grade band.
T1:21.91% T2:16.92% T3:17.75% T4:20.27% T5:18.42% T6:13.61%
957 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 480m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Aero Ezra | 48 | 68 | Closer |
2Kick On Archie | 100 | 0 | Fader |
3Whisky On Fire | 83 | 53 | Front Runner |
4Economicalreason | 51 | 47 | All-Rounder |
5Aero Fumi | 49 | 18 | All-Rounder |
6Longacres Key | 41 | 84 | Closer |
Only runs at exactly 480m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (480m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 264m | 400m | 480m | 491m | 500m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aero Ezra | 0.597 | — | 0.604 | — | — |
| 2 | Kick On Archie | — | — | 0.608 | — | 0.598 |
| 3 | Whisky On Fire | 0.600 | 0.611 | 0.608 | — | — |
| 4 | Economicalreason | — | — | 0.606 | — | — |
| 5 | Aero Fumi | — | — | 0.605 | — | — |
| 6 | Longacres Key | — | — | 0.603 | — | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.