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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Winterfield Ninab 2y 6 | C Jones — 16% R255 W41 P129 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 40 | 50 (3) | 64 (1) | 51 (2) | 54 (1) | 48 (1) | 40 (2) | 37 (4) | 35 (4) | 45 (2) | 32 (6) | 50 | 38 | 18 | 49 | 49 | 47 | 3 | 10/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Vixons Bentleyb 2y 5 | J B Thompson — 18% R528 W96 P302 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 65 | 45 (5) | 26 (3) | 49 (5) | 52 (4) | 68 (1) | 52 (2) | 61 (2) | 64 (1) | 58 (1) | 44 (2) | 34 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 55 | 48 | 5 | 5/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Longacres Doctord 1y 15 | P J Doocey — 17% R150 W26 P73 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 51 | 60 (1) | 49 (2) | 51 (2) | 50 (2) | 39 (5) | 29 (6) | 46 (3) | - | - | - | 32 | 24 | - | 42 | 49 | 51 | 1 | 4/6F | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Aero Bennyd 2y 5 | R Taberner — 18% R734 W133 P409 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 39 | 44 | 31 (3) | 29 (6) | 36 (4) | 57 (3) | 59 (2) | 44 (5) | 59 (4) | 64 (2) | 59 (4) | 57 (6) | 44 | 30 | 34 | 24 | 48 | 40 | 6 | 7/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Downmexicowayd 3y 5 | J M Walton — 16% R218 W34 P102 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 48 | 55 (2) | 36 (6) | 60 (2) | 37 (6) | 50 (4) | 69 (1) | 37 (6) | 49 (4) | 43 (4) | 61 (2) | 23 | 23 | 22 | 26 | 49 | 49 | 4 | 16/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Aero Maisieb 1y 15 | R Taberner — 18% R734 W133 P409 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 89 | 54 (2) | 63 (4) | 54 (4) | 51 (4) | 29 (4) | 67 (1) | 53 (4) | 63 (1) | 57 (2) | 50 (3) | 20 | 43 | 25 | 26 | 57 | 50 | 2 | 10/3 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Winterfield Nina | — | — | — | 47 | — | Mid-pack | |
| 2 | Vixons Bentley | — | — | — | 48 | — | Good bend rating | |
| 3 | Longacres Doctor | — | — | — | 53 | — | Danger, won LTO | |
| 4 | Aero Benny | — | — | — | 39 | — | Slowest in field | |
| 5 | Downmexicoway | — | — | — | 51 | — | Worst trap draw | |
| 6 | Aero Maisie | — | — | — | 52 | — | Model pick, drops in class |
Monmore's 480m trip looks fair on paper - trap 1 leads at 20.5% with trap 5 the weakest at 13.1% overall - but middle grades like this A6 are exactly where the model has struggled most at this venue, with the top-rated dog winning barely one in six historically. That means this is a race to trust genuine analysis over the raw rating. Aero Maisie catches the eye - she drops in sharply from open racing and boasts by far the best first-bend figure in the field, but she needs to use her early speed because she fades late. Longacres Doctor arrives on the back of a taking win last time and rates just as highly on the model, though he's stepping up in grade to do it again. Downmexicoway and Vixons Bentley both have the form to be involved without standing out, while Aero Benny and Winterfield Nina look to be up against it on the numbers.
Drops in sharply from open racing, where she was fourth last time out in a far stronger field - that experience against better opposition suggests there's more improvement to come at this level. Comfortably the best first-bend figure of anyone here, well clear of the rest of the field, and trainer R Taberner's 34% strike rate is the standout number on the card. A fader who needs to use that early pace, but with the class edge and the trainer form stacking up, she's a fair each-way alternative to the model's top two.
Won last time out at A8 grade with a career-best 60-rated performance, and now steps up to tackle this tougher A6 field off the back of it. Tops both the composite model and the speed figures in this race, and the recent trend - 60, 49, 51, 50 - shows a dog improving with every run. The step up in grade is the obvious question mark, but there's little in the profile to suggest he can't cope. The main threat to the selection.
Third last time out at this exact grade and distance, with form reading 50, 64, 51, 54, 48, 40 - steady without a standout peak. Trap 1 is a productive box here but the underlying numbers put her mid-table on both speed and the model. Three wins from ten at this course and distance is a reasonable record. Others have stronger claims on current form.
Third last time out at the minimum trip and the peak recent form of 68 a few runs back shows the ability is there. Rates well on the first-bend figures, second only to the selection in that department, and has a strong course and distance record with three wins from nine. A fader by running style so wants to be involved early. In the mix if the front two don't fire.
Third last time out over the minimum trip, a different test to this longer distance. Bottom of the field on both the model and the speed figures here, and no course and distance win from eight attempts. A confirmed closer who has yet to show it works over this specific trip and track. Hard to fancy strongly.
Runner-up last time out at this exact grade and distance, a solid recent effort. Versatile running style that can race close to the pace throughout. Drawn in trap 5, statistically the weakest box at this grade, which is the main knock. One course and distance win from ten is modest. Respectable form but the draw works against her.
Key insight: This is a middle grade at a track where the composite model is known to underperform - Monmore's A5-A8 band has produced a composite top-pick win rate around 16% in prior data, well below the model's headline numbers. Speed and structural factors (trainer form, bend rating, class movement) carry more weight than the raw rating at this level here.
T1:20.49% T2:21.2% T3:16.77% T4:19.67% T5:15.51% T6:20.83%
1,767 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 480m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Winterfield Nina | 44 | 56 | Closer |
2Vixons Bentley | 61 | 23 | Fader |
3Longacres Doctor | 49 | 49 | All-Rounder |
4Aero Benny | 0 | 100 | Closer |
5Downmexicoway | 51 | 51 | All-Rounder |
6Aero Maisie | 73 | 0 | Fader |
Only runs at exactly 480m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (480m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 264m | 480m | 630m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Winterfield Nina | — | 0.615 | — |
| 2 | Vixons Bentley | 0.608 | 0.610 | — |
| 3 | Longacres Doctor | — | 0.613 | — |
| 4 | Aero Benny | 0.600 | 0.612 | 0.619 |
| 5 | Downmexicoway | — | 0.612 | — |
| 6 | Aero Maisie | 0.606 | 0.610 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.