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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Savana Sandyb 3y 16 | E Gowler — 23% R47 W11 P32 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 59 | 47 | 41 (4) | 38 (4) | 41 (2) | 47 (2) | 40 (3) | 45 (4) | 14 (5) | 13 (4) | 68 (1) | 74 (4) | 35 | 13 | - | 14 | 41 | 45 | 1 | 1/1F | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Abigail Surpriseb 2yN/R 16 | C A Williams — 14% R354 W49 P174 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 71 | 52 | 47 (3) | 35 (5) | 54 (2) | 69 (2) | 44 (2) | 40 (4) | 32 (5) | 59 (1) | 58 (1) | 53 (2) | 39 | 36 | - | 43 | 48 | 61 | - | - | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Ballymac Nellieb 3y 6 | C A Williams — 14% R354 W49 P174 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 53 | 37 (5) | 36 (4) | 35 (5) | 56 (1) | 34 (6) | 34 (5) | 32 (5) | 41 (4) | 33 (5) | 33 (4) | 16 | 21 | - | 16 | 38 | 40 | 5 | 8/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Amazing Emperord 3y 6 | C A Williams — 14% R354 W49 P174 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 51 | 42 (3) | 52 (2) | 36 (5) | 37 (3) | 42 (3) | 33 (5) | 40 (4) | 38 (4) | 33 (5) | 50 (2) | 17 | 18 | - | 9 | 41 | 37 | 2 | 9/2 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Monbeg Ginod 4y 14 | C A Williams — 14% R354 W49 P174 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 49 | 36 (4) | 23 (3) | 37 (3) | 37 (4) | 43 (3) | 41 (3) | 45 (2) | 48 (2) | 42 (2) | 49 (2) | 25 | 24 | - | 19 | 38 | 41 | 4 | 6/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Glitter Moonb 4y 15 | D Calvert — 18% R594 W109 P341 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 37 | 41 (2) | 57 (1) | 34 (5) | 46 (2) | 48 (2) | 34 (4) | 41 (4) | 36 (5) | 37 (4) | 32 (5) | 29 | 25 | - | 34 | 42 | 44 | 3 | 15/8 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Savana Sandy | 28.41 | 28.78 | 28.98 | 59 | +0.57 | Best trap in field | |
| 2 | Abigail Surprise | 28.24 | 28.49 | 28.70 | 71 | +0.46 | Model pick | |
| 3 | Ballymac Nellie | 28.69 | 29.01 | 29.21 | 47 | +0.52 | Thin C&D wins | |
| 4 | Amazing Emperor | 28.70 | 29.02 | 29.09 | 48 | +0.39 | 0 wins from 10 | |
| 5 | Monbeg Gino | 28.75 | 28.94 | 29.20 | 47 | +0.45 | 0 wins from 9 | |
| 6 | Glitter Moon | 28.60 | 29.00 | 29.03 | 50 | +0.43 | 2nd LTO |
Doncaster's 450 metres is a fair galloping trip, and at this B6 grade trap 1 has been the strongest box by some way at over 31%, though the top-rated dog on the day's ratings is the story of this race regardless of trap. Abigail Surprise is a class above this field on both the ratings and the clock - the fastest dog here by a wide margin and rated well clear of the rest. At this grade the top-rated dog wins over a third of the time and the fastest dog wins even more often, and she owns both of those signals outright. Savana Sandy has the best draw in the race and is the second-fastest, making her the clear danger if the selection has an off day. The rest of this field are considerably further back on both pace and rating.
A clear cut above this field on both the day's ratings and the clock - the fastest dog here by a wide margin and rated well ahead of the rest. At this grade, the top-rated dog wins over a third of the time and the fastest dog wins even more often, and she's the outright leader on both measures, a rare and powerful combination. Seven places from ten course-and-distance starts adds a proven track record on top of the raw numbers. Fifth last time out at a tougher grade than this one, which shouldn't be held against her here.
Drawn in trap one, by far the best box at this grade, winning almost a third of races here. Second-fastest dog in the field on recent times. Fourth last time out at the grade above and hasn't converted her eight course-and-distance starts into a win yet, though she has placed twice. The trap and pace keep her firmly in the picture as the clear danger to the selection.
Fifth last time out and has just one win and one place from ten course-and-distance starts, a modest conversion rate. Drawn in the weakest box at this grade. Nothing in the raw pace or recent form suggests she troubles the front two.
Third last time out but hasn't won from ten course-and-distance starts, with just two places. A reasonable box at this grade but the pace is off the leading pair. Nothing to suggest a big improvement is imminent.
Fourth last time out and the slowest of the field on recent times, without a win from nine course-and-distance starts despite four places. A fair box but the pace is well off the top two. Hard to make a case for her against this level of opposition at the top.
Second last time out and has a win and four places from ten course-and-distance starts, a fair record. Mid-pack on the day's ratings and the clock. Solid without anything that lifts her into contention with the top two on this evidence.
Key insight: The top-rated dog wins 35.6% of races at this grade and the fastest dog wins 37.3% - two of the strongest signals anywhere on today's card, and the selection tops both of them by a wide margin.
T1:31.4% T2:22.9% T3:20.5% T4:25.9% T5:23.8% T6:22.7%
469 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 450m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Savana Sandy | 0 | 100 | Closer |
2Abigail Surprise | 50 | 85 | Closer |
3Ballymac Nellie | 54 | 0 | All-Rounder |
4Amazing Emperor | 50 | 5 | All-Rounder |
5Monbeg Gino | 50 | 15 | All-Rounder |
6Glitter Moon | 41 | 100 | Closer |
Only runs at exactly 450m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (450m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 275m | 388m | 450m | 548m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Savana Sandy | — | 0.637 | 0.639 | 0.633 |
| 3 | Ballymac Nellie | — | — | 0.645 | — |
| 4 | Amazing Emperor | — | — | 0.645 | — |
| 5 | Monbeg Gino | 0.650 | — | 0.643 | — |
| 6 | Glitter Moon | — | — | 0.644 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.