Loading...
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Manx Saskiab 4y 15 | S J L Lapidge — 18% R311 W55 P179 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | - | 24 (4) | 29 (3) | 28 (3) | 28 (3) | 25 (4) | 22 (5) | 29 (4) | 27 (4) | 27 (4) | 33 (3) | 28 | 23 | - | 5 | 27 | 26 | 3 | 11/4 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Kirabilly Pearlb 2y 16 | L B Pruhs — 13% R149 W20 P79 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 38 | - | 22 (5) | 23 (3) | 20 (5) | 22 (4) | 27 (4) | 23 (4) | 27 (2) | 26 (4) | 19 (5) | - | 11 | 13 | - | 9 | 23 | 18 | 6 | 25/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Jackies Wishd 1y 2 | S J L Lapidge — 18% R311 W55 P179 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | - | 31 (1) | 31 (1) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 5 | 45 | - | 50 | 31 | 33 | 5 | 11/4 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Creative Wayd 2y 44 | L B Pruhs — 13% R149 W20 P79 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | - | 80 (3) | 43 (4) | 70 (1) | 49 (3) | 54 (4) | 69 (1) | 50 (4) | 42 (5) | 32 (1) | 28 (2) | 34 | - | 5 | - | 30 | 5 | 2 | 4/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Skytrainb 4y 16 | P J Manley — 24% R55 W13 P40 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | - | 21 (5) | 37 (1) | 29 (3) | 26 (4) | 27 (3) | 32 (2) | 31 (2) | 26 (3) | 31 (1) | 31 (1) | 30 | 37 | 23 | 36 | 29 | 31 | 1 | 5/2 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Makeit Chiffonb 3y 5 | S J L Lapidge — 18% R311 W55 P179 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | - | 28 (3) | 26 (3) | 29 (4) | 25 (5) | 25 (5) | 29 (3) | 26 (5) | 40 (1) | 29 (4) | 52 (2) | 30 | 20 | 3 | 7 | 29 | 26 | 4 | 9/4F | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manx Saskia | 17.33 | 17.60 | 17.57 | 51 | +0.24 | 0 wins from 10 | |
| 2 | Kirabilly Pearl | 17.57 | 17.82 | 17.99 | 38 | +0.42 | Slowest in field | |
| 3 | Jackies Wish | 17.48 | 17.56 | 17.48 | 51 | 0.00 | Only 2 career runs | |
| 4 | Creative Way | 17.50 | 17.52 | 17.53 | 51 | +0.03 | Closer, dropping grade | |
| 5 | Skytrain | 17.26 | 17.47 | 17.73 | 52 | +0.47 | Model pick | |
| 6 | Makeit Chiffon | 17.43 | 17.59 | 17.50 | 51 | +0.07 | Fast away, fades |
Doncaster's minimum trip rewards early pace and a clean run into the first bend, and at this D3 grade trap 1 has been the standout box, winning over a quarter of races, while trap 5 has actually been the weakest at just 17.5%. Skytrain overcomes that poor trap statistic on pure ability - she's the fastest in this field on the clock and has won three times from ten starts at this exact course and distance, comfortably the best proven record in the race. Jackies Wish rates highly on the day's ratings but that's built from only two career starts, both wins, so there's very little to actually judge her on yet. Manx Saskia matches the pace of most of this field but has never converted it into a placing here in ten attempts. Creative Way is a confirmed closer dropping in sharply from much stronger company, an unusual runner for a sprint like this.
The fastest dog in this field on the clock, and at this grade the fastest dog wins nearly three in ten races - the strongest single signal at this trip. Three wins and five places from ten starts at this exact course and distance is the best proven record in the race by a distance. Fifth last time out but that's one run in a long and mostly solid history here - the draw in trap five is the only thing working against her, historically the weakest box at this grade, but the speed and course-and-distance edge are strong enough to look past it.
Won last time out and tops the day's ratings, but that's built from just two career starts, both wins - genuinely promising but far too small a sample to call her the proven article yet. Matches the second-fastest time in the field and is drawn in a reasonable box. If she's for real, she could easily be the one, but there's a real risk the ratings are running ahead of the evidence given how little racing she's actually done.
Drawn in trap one, the best box at this grade by some distance, and matches the pace of most of this field on the clock. The problem is the record - ten runs at this exact course and distance without a single win or place. Fourth last time out. The trap keeps her in play but the conversion rate is a real concern.
The slowest dog in this field by a clear margin and has managed just one place from ten course-and-distance starts. Fifth last time out. Nothing in the recent form or the raw pace to suggest she can trouble this group.
A confirmed closer dropping in sharply from OR-grade company several months ago, an unusual profile for a sprint like this one where there's rarely enough time for a finishing burst to matter. Third last time out at the higher level. The engine looks decent on paper but the running style is a poor match for the minimum trip.
Explosive away from the traps but tends to lose ground in the closing stages, a pattern that can still work at this short trip if she gets far enough clear early. One win and one place from nine course-and-distance starts. Third last time out. Would need the very fast beginning to hold up all the way to the line.
Key insight: The fastest dog in the field wins 29.4% of races at this grade - well clear of the top-rated dog on the ratings at 24.5%. Trap 1 is a clear structural plus, trap 5 the weakest box.
T1:25.8% T2:22.9% T3:20.6% T4:21.5% T5:17.5% T6:19.1%
1,786 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 275m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 275m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (275m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 220m | 275m | 388m | 450m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manx Saskia | — | 0.640 | — | — |
| 2 | Kirabilly Pearl | — | 0.648 | — | — |
| 3 | Jackies Wish | — | 0.638 | — | — |
| 4 | Creative Way | 0.637 | 0.636 | 0.638 | — |
| 5 | Skytrain | — | 0.635 | — | — |
| 6 | Makeit Chiffon | — | 0.640 | — | 0.620 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.