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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Lizzy Jezabelleb 5y 37 | P J Manley — 24% R55 W13 P40 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 54 | 51 | 43 (2) | 31 (1) | 44 (3) | 30 (3) | 58 (1) | 25 (5) | 55 (1) | 56 (1) | 38 (3) | 48 (2) | 33 | 41 | - | 47 | 41 | 44 | 3 | 10/3 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Comer Pennyb 3y 5 | D Calvert — 18% R594 W109 P341 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | 52 | 31 (5) | 35 (4) | 41 (2) | 42 (3) | 45 (5) | 40 (5) | 46 (3) | 34 (5) | 29 (5) | 32 (5) | 20 | 28 | - | 8 | 38 | 40 | 4 | 3/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Ballinabola Minib 3y 16 | S A Birks — 17% R186 W31 P100 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 48 | 38 (4) | 37 (4) | 33 (4) | 59 (1) | 30 (5) | 38 (5) | 35 (5) | 27 (5) | 28 (5) | 20 (6) | 26 | 17 | - | 10 | 37 | 39 | 5 | 8/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Good Lossieb 1y 7 | D Calvert — 18% R594 W109 P341 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 54 | 41 | 51 (2) | 41 (3) | 45 (3) | 35 (4) | 33 (5) | - | - | - | - | - | 16 | 10 | - | 13 | 42 | 39 | 2 | 5/4F | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Easy Chloeb 2y 17 | D Calvert — 18% R594 W109 P341 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 51 | 44 (3) | 32 (5) | 58 (1) | 22 (4) | 22 (2) | - | - | - | - | - | 32 | 23 | - | 16 | 37 | 42 | 1 | 11/4 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Royal Flushd 3y 16 | S A Birks — 17% R186 W31 P100 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 43 | 48 | 35 (5) | 36 (5) | 33 (5) | 44 (3) | 56 (1) | 56 (1) | 44 (3) | 45 (3) | 44 (2) | 51 (2) | 22 | 21 | - | 23 | 42 | 35 | 6 | 14/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lizzy Jezabelle | 28.47 | 28.76 | 28.69 | 54 | +0.22 | Model pick | |
| 2 | Comer Penny | 28.55 | 28.88 | 29.09 | 46 | +0.54 | 0 wins from 10 | |
| 3 | Ballinabola Mini | 28.21 | 28.99 | 28.91 | 50 | +0.70 | Best trap in field | |
| 4 | Good Lossie | 28.43 | 28.79 | 28.75 | 54 | +0.32 | Thin C&D form | |
| 5 | Easy Chloe | 28.46 | 28.78 | 28.75 | 52 | +0.29 | Small C&D sample | |
| 6 | Royal Flush | 28.69 | 28.92 | 28.98 | 43 | +0.29 | 2nd-best trap |
Doncaster's 450 metres is a fair galloping trip where the first bend doesn't punish wide draws too harshly, and at this B5 grade trap 3 has been the standout box, winning over 28% of races, with trap 2 the weakest at just over 16%. Lizzy Jezabelle doesn't have that ideal draw but she tops the day's ratings, matches the fastest recent times in the field, and has an outstanding course-and-distance record - three wins and five places from seven starts here. Royal Flush has the second-best draw and a fair proven record of her own. Ballinabola Mini has the very best box in the race but hasn't yet turned that into much success on paper. The rest of this field trail on both pace and proven form at this exact combination.
Tops the day's ratings and matches the fastest recent times in this field, backed by an outstanding course-and-distance record - three wins and five places from just seven starts at this exact combination, comfortably the best conversion rate in the race. Second last time out. The draw isn't the strongest at this grade, but the weight of proven form here, matched with the raw pace, makes her the clear pick.
Drawn in the second-best box at this grade and has two wins and four places from ten course-and-distance starts, a solid record. Fifth last time out but that follows a run of competitive performances at this trip. Not the fastest in the field but knows how to place well here more often than most, and the trap advantage adds real support.
Fifth last time out and hasn't won from ten course-and-distance starts, with just one place to show for it. The slowest recent time of anyone bar the last-placed runner, and drawn in the weakest box at this grade. Very little here to suggest a big run is coming.
Drawn in the standout box at this grade, winning well over a quarter of races from trap three, and owns the fastest single time recorded of anyone in the field. But nine course-and-distance starts have produced just one win and one place, and fourth last time out continues a pattern of finishing without troubling the front two. The trap alone keeps her interesting.
Second last time out and matches the fastest recent times in this field, but has only five course-and-distance starts here with just one place to show for it. A below-average box at this grade. The pace is there but the proven record isn't quite as deep as the selection's.
Third last time out and a win and a place from four course-and-distance starts, though the sample is small. Reasonable pace, mid-table on the day's ratings. Nothing wrong with her profile but nothing that stands out either against a field with two clearly stronger claims.
Key insight: The top-rated dog wins 28.1% at this grade - one of the strongest composite signals across the card - while trap 3 is a huge structural edge at 28.6%.
T1:19.3% T2:16.2% T3:28.6% T4:18.4% T5:17.5% T6:22.1%
774 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 450m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Lizzy Jezabelle | 51 | 64 | Closer |
2Comer Penny | 51 | 36 | All-Rounder |
3Ballinabola Mini | 48 | 56 | Closer |
4Good Lossie | 40 | 100 | Closer |
5Easy Chloe | 50 | 40 | All-Rounder |
6Royal Flush | 50 | 44 | All-Rounder |
Only runs at exactly 450m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (450m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 275m | 450m | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lizzy Jezabelle | 0.641 | 0.639 |
| 2 | Comer Penny | — | 0.642 |
| 3 | Ballinabola Mini | 0.648 | 0.644 |
| 4 | Good Lossie | — | 0.640 |
| 5 | Easy Chloe | 0.660 | 0.640 |
| 6 | Royal Flush | — | 0.643 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.