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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Lizzy Jezabelleb 5yN/R 34 | P J Manley — 24% R55 W13 P40 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 39 | 49 | 43 (2) | 31 (1) | 44 (3) | 30 (3) | 58 (1) | 25 (5) | 55 (1) | 56 (1) | 38 (3) | 48 (2) | 33 | 41 | - | 47 | 41 | 34 | - | - | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Abigail Surpriseb 2y 17 | C A Williams — 14% R354 W49 P174 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 57 | 47 (3) | 35 (5) | 54 (2) | 69 (2) | 44 (2) | 40 (4) | 32 (5) | 59 (1) | 58 (1) | 53 (2) | 39 | 36 | - | 43 | 48 | 47 | 3 | 7/2 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Tommys Ruthb 1y 5 | D Calvert — 18% R594 W109 P341 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 50 | 48 (3) | 45 (3) | 31 (4) | 24 (5) | 66 (1) | 42 (3) | 58 (1) | 34 (4) | 57 (1) | 33 (3) | 28 | 34 | - | 25 | 43 | 47 | 4 | 5/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Miss Mini Lulub 4y 24 | C A Williams — 14% R354 W49 P174 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 53 | 43 (4) | 58 (1) | 40 (3) | 37 (1) | 25 (4) | 27 (4) | 33 (2) | 23 (5) | 23 (5) | 36 (1) | 39 | 34 | - | 23 | 38 | 42 | 5 | 4/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Galloway Gracieb 2y 34 | D Calvert — 18% R594 W109 P341 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 45 | 45 (5) | 68 (2) | 69 (2) | 49 (2) | 56 (2) | 61 (2) | 49 (4) | 46 (4) | 51 (4) | 45 (5) | 30 | 22 | - | 18 | 55 | 34 | 1 | 11/8F | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Transfer Girlb 2y 25 | C A Williams — 14% R354 W49 P174 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 58 | 0 | 62 (5) | 70 (3) | 57 (2) | 66 (4) | 57 (2) | 77 (3) | 66 (1) | 61 (2) | 33 (2) | - | 30 | 41 | - | 22 | 63 | 38 | 2 | 5/2 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lizzy Jezabelle | 28.47 | 28.76 | 28.69 | 39 | +0.22 | Up from B5 | |
| 2 | Abigail Surprise | 28.24 | 28.49 | 28.70 | 48 | +0.46 | Model pick | |
| 3 | Tommys Ruth | 28.14 | 28.72 | 28.14 | 53 | 0.00 | Worst trap in field | |
| 4 | Miss Mini Lulu | 28.36 | 28.51 | 28.57 | 48 | +0.21 | Thin C&D form | |
| 5 | Galloway Gracie | 28.41 | 28.41 | 28.41 | 51 | 0.00 | Drops from A2 | |
| 6 | Transfer Girl | No recent run at this course and distance - drops in from A2 grade over 483 metres. | — | No 450m form, drops from A2 | ||||
Doncaster's 450 metres is a fair galloping trip, and at this B3 grade trap 1 has been the strongest box at 23.4%, with trap 3 actually the weakest at under 18%. Abigail Surprise and Tommys Ruth share the top of the day's ratings, and the draw becomes the deciding factor between them - Abigail has the better box and has been remarkably consistent, placing in seven of her last ten starts here. Tommys Ruth is a touch faster on the clock but carries the worst draw at this grade. Transfer Girl and Galloway Gracie both drop in sharply from much tougher A2 company over a longer trip, and while their raw engines look the biggest on paper, neither has any recent form at this exact course and distance to lean on. Lizzy Jezabelle steps up from B5 grade and will find this a tougher test.
Shares the top of the day's ratings and has been remarkably consistent at this course and distance, placing in seven of her last ten starts here even though the outright wins have been fewer. Fifth last time out but that continues a pattern of being competitive rather than badly beaten. Drawn in a reasonable box at this grade, well clear of the worst trap that her closest market rival faces.
Shares the top of the day's ratings and is a touch faster on the clock than the selection, with three wins from ten course-and-distance starts - the best outright win rate in the field. Third last time out. The one thing working against her is the draw, trap three has been the weakest box at this grade by some distance, but the pace and win conversion make her the clear danger.
Steps up from B5 grade having been second last time out, a step up in class to assess here. Drawn in the best trap at this grade, which keeps her interesting despite the drop in rating. The clock hasn't been kind to her recent form and this looks a tougher assignment than her last few starts.
Fourth last time out and has just three course-and-distance starts, with a win and a place among them - promising but too small a sample to lean on heavily. A fair box and pace to match. Would need to build on the early signs to trouble the leading pair.
Drops in sharply from A2 company over a longer trip and rates the biggest raw engine in this field on recent form, but that average is built against much tougher opposition and may not translate directly. Only one run at this exact course and distance, over a month ago. If she takes to the drop in class she could be dangerous, but it's a genuine unknown.
The fastest dog in the field on recent times and drops in sharply from A2 company, a big step down in grade. But she has no recorded form at this exact course and distance and was racing over 483 metres last time out rather than this 450-metre trip. The raw pace makes her impossible to completely dismiss but there's too much unknown to trust her fully.
Key insight: Trap 1 is the strongest box at this grade, winning 23.4%, while trap 3 is the weakest at 17.8% - a big factor when splitting the two joint-top-rated dogs in this field.
T1:23.4% T2:20.8% T3:17.8% T4:21.1% T5:21.6% T6:22.2%
1,759 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 450m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Lizzy Jezabelle | 52 | 18 | All-Rounder |
2Abigail Surprise | 57 | 0 | Fader |
3Tommys Ruth | 48 | 53 | All-Rounder |
4Miss Mini Lulu | 52 | 47 | All-Rounder |
5Galloway Gracie | 0 | 100 | Closer |
6Transfer Girl | 0 | 100 | Closer |
Only runs at exactly 450m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (450m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 275m | 435m | 450m | 483m | 500m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Abigail Surprise | — | — | 0.633 | — | — |
| 3 | Tommys Ruth | — | — | 0.638 | — | — |
| 4 | Miss Mini Lulu | 0.637 | — | 0.633 | — | — |
| 5 | Galloway Gracie | — | 0.612 | 0.631 | 0.632 | 0.600 |
| 6 | Transfer Girl | — | — | — | 0.632 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.