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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Grayroy Duked 3y 6 | K J Crocker — 18% R121 W22 P67 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | - | 24 (3) | 23 (4) | 21 (3) | 19 (4) | 26 (2) | 24 (3) | 23 (3) | 27 (1) | 25 (2) | 20 (5) | 22 | 22 | 22 | 16 | 23 | 24 | 2 | 11/4 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Likely Ladyb 2y 14 | A Welch — 13% R309 W40 P144 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | - | 25 (2) | 18 (5) | 23 (3) | 16 (5) | 17 (5) | 21 (4) | 28 (1) | 17 (6) | 54 (2) | 25 (3) | 28 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 21 | 15 | 5 | 4/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Salacres Showmand 1y 1 | P H Harnden — 15% R361 W54 P206 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | - | 19 (5) | 21 (4) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 5 | - | - | - | 20 | 18 | 3 | 5/2F | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Salacres Smilerb 1y 36 | P H Harnden — 15% R361 W54 P206 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 41 | - | 21 (2) | 49 (2) | 35 (5) | 21 (4) | 14 (6) | - | - | - | - | - | 4 | 17 | 10 | 13 | 19 | 7 | 6 | 11/4 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Makeit Juiceb 3y 25 | V A Lea — 14% R148 W21 P58 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | - | 35 (4) | 24 (5) | 45 (3) | 37 (2) | 22 (3) | 16 (6) | 28 (1) | 20 (5) | 19 (4) | 25 (2) | 23 | 19 | 25 | 22 | 29 | 22 | 4 | 9/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Coolemore Southd 5y 45 | J M Liles — 16% R394 W65 P190 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | - | 44 (4) | 39 (5) | 39 (4) | 60 (1) | 37 (3) | 57 (1) | 44 (3) | 37 (5) | 24 (3) | 47 (3) | 25 | 25 | - | 7 | 24 | 22 | 1 | 5/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grayroy Duke | 16.73 | 16.85 | 16.77 | 52 | +0.04 | Most C&D experience | |
| 2 | Likely Lady | 16.60 | 17.00 | 16.60 | 53 | 0.00 | Joint-fastest | |
| 3 | Salacres Showman | 16.77 | 16.90 | 17.02 | 46 | +0.25 | Best trap here | |
| 4 | Salacres Smiler | 16.95 | 17.07 | 16.97 | 41 | +0.02 | Weakest speed in field | |
| 5 | Makeit Juice | 16.60 | 16.87 | 16.86 | 52 | +0.26 | Weakest trap here | |
| 6 | Coolemore South | 16.77 | 16.77 | 16.77 | 53 | 0.00 | Joint-fastest, big class drop |
This D5 sprint is the weakest grade on the card, and at Towcester's 270m trip speed is a particularly powerful guide at this level - the fastest dog in the field wins nearly a third of the time here, well clear of the top-rated dog on the overall model at 21.5%. Trap 3 has been the pick of the boxes (20.95%) with trap 5 the weakest (14.85%). Likely Lady and Coolemore South share the fastest recorded time in this field, but it's Coolemore South who arrives with a clear quality edge over the rest, dropping right down in grade after racing at a much higher level recently. The remainder of this field looks fairly workmanlike on the clock and on recent form.
Drops sharply in grade after recently racing at a much higher level over a longer trip, and a career-best effort three runs back is well clear of anything the rest of this field has managed lately. Shares the fastest recorded time in the race too. The move down to sprint distance is untested and there's minimal course-and-distance experience to lean on, which is the main question mark, but on raw quality this looks the type to take real advantage of a sizeable class drop.
Shares the fastest recorded time in this field and has plenty of course-and-distance experience, with a win and two places from eight runs here. Placed second last time out. A fair trap for this grade too. The clearest threat to the selection on the numbers.
Extremely settled at this level with the most course-and-distance experience in the field, though a modest one win and three places from ten runs shows he's more of a frequent minor-honours dog than a natural winner. Form has stayed steady in the low 20s across his last six starts. A fair yardstick for the grade but not fast enough to trouble the leading pair.
Drawn in the best-performing box at this grade but only two runs of visible form so far, both modest, and the slowest recorded time of her last outing. Too little evidence yet to make a strong case either way.
The slowest recorded time in this field and has struggled to find any consistency across her last five starts, though she does finish her races out strongly from off the pace when there's enough happening in front of her. Hard to fancy on the clock alone.
Steps up from the 460m trip and is fast into stride but tends to fade badly through the finish, which won't help in the weakest trap at this grade. Recent form has been modest without a real standout effort.
Key insight: Speed is the dominant signal at D5 grade - the fastest dog in the field wins 31.5% of the time, comfortably the strongest edge of any factor at this level - while trap 3 is the best box and trap 5 the weakest.
T1:17.59% T2:19.27% T3:20.95% T4:15.45% T5:14.85% T6:17.89%
628 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 270m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 270m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (270m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 253m | 270m | 450m | 460m | 500m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grayroy Duke | — | 0.624 | — | — | — |
| 2 | Likely Lady | 0.628 | 0.630 | 0.621 | — | — |
| 3 | Salacres Showman | — | 0.626 | — | — | — |
| 4 | Salacres Smiler | — | 0.632 | — | — | 0.615 |
| 5 | Makeit Juice | — | 0.625 | — | 0.621 | — |
| 6 | Coolemore South | — | 0.621 | — | — | 0.614 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.