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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Class | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Rating | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Calgray Riskd 3y 4 | S A Birks — 16% R216 W35 P123 Trainer form — last 3 months | 52 | - | 26 (5) | 36 (2) | 35 (2) | 32 (2) | 30 (3) | 33 (2) | 35 (2) | 31 (4) | 29 (4) | 37 (1) | 47 | 45 | 36 | 43 | 31 | 36 | 3 | 7/2 | ||
| 2 | ▶ Vixons Bugattid 1yN/R 13 | S J L Lapidge — 18% R317 W56 P186 Trainer form — last 3 months | 30 | 35 | 35 (5) | 65 (3) | 55 (2) | 50 (4) | 60 (1) | 50 (3) | 45 (2) | 42 (2) | 63 (6) | - | 41 | 65 | - | - | 53 | 53 | - | - | ||
| 3 | ▶ Sandwood Daffyb 2y 9 | S Watson — 31% R421 W129 P297 Trainer form — last 3 months | 53 | - | 41 (1) | 42 (1) | 36 (2) | 24 (5) | 36 (2) | 30 (4) | 26 (4) | 40 (1) | 36 (2) | 33 (3) | 65 | 41 | 40 | 36 | 31 | 37 | 4 | 6/5F | ||
| 4 | ▶ Slaneyside Tarab 2y 6 | R J Overton — 18% R320 W56 P190 Trainer form — last 3 months | 55 | - | 28 (3) | 28 (4) | 25 (4) | 30 (3) | 29 (3) | 34 (3) | 35 (2) | 36 (1) | 34 (2) | 35 (1) | 51 | 49 | 56 | 57 | 34 | 40 | 1 | 13/8 | ||
| 5 | ▶ Miss Mini Lulub 4y 14 | C A Williams — 15% R362 W53 P182 Trainer form — last 3 months | 49 | 65 | 27 (4) | 33 (2) | 23 (5) | 23 (5) | 36 (1) | 35 (1) | 22 (5) | 23 (4) | 22 (5) | 29 (4) | 24 | 43 | 23 | 59 | 30 | 34 | 5 | 16/1 | ||
| 6 | ▶ Easy Weapond 1y 16 | D Calvert — 17% R541 W92 P310 Trainer form — last 3 months | 48 | - | 27 (3) | 31 (1) | 29 (2) | 31 (1) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 51 | 59 | - | 59 | 29 | 39 | 2 | 4/1 | ||
The projected winner, though in a LOW SEPARATION sprint the case is inherently tentative. Slaneyside Tara brings the highest composite in the field (40) with the best suitability profile — distance suit 57 and class suit 56 are far ahead of the field, confirming proven 275m sprint form at D3 level. Her form reads 34-34-36-34-35 — perhaps the most consistent form line on the entire card, never dropping below 34 and peaking at 36. That consistency is valuable at a grade where races are decided by tiny margins. Speed rating 55 is the field best. T4 at 21.32% from 258 runs is neutral — not dominant but not dead. Trainer Overton at 24% from 50 D3 runs is a positive signal. No pace data is available, so we cannot assess early speed, which is a risk at sprint distance. The case rests on: best composite + best distance/class suitability + most consistent form + field-best speed. In a LOW SEPARATION race, these cumulative edges matter more than any single dominant factor.
DANGER: DOMINANT T1 (26.86%) with Birks at 30.77% from 39 D3 runs — the strongest structural + trainer combination. Consistent form (low 30s) and proven CD pedigree. In a LOW SEPARATION sprint, this trap/trainer combination is arguably the best bet.
450m Closer trying a 275m sprint — fundamental distance mismatch. Distance suit 0, speed 30, bend 29. The strong T2 position (23.94%) is wasted on a dog who has never raced at this distance.
Watson training (35.48% at D3) is the standout positive, but the weakest trap position (T3, 18.44%) and middling form (24-36 range) prevent a higher assessment. Trap suit 65 offers individual hope but the structural headwind is real.
Explosive early pace (EP 100, bend 71) but form swings from 13 to 37 — too unreliable. T5 structurally weak (17.33%). When she fires she can compete but the floor of 13-17 is disqualifying.
Decent suitability (track 59, distance 59) and T6 position (21.52%) but form of 27-31 is below D3 level. Calvert at 11.11% from 63 D3 runs is a major red flag. Two D4 wins suggest a ceiling below D3.
LOW SEPARATION: R1 24.01% vs R3 21.97% — just 2pp gap. Ratings offer almost no predictive value at D3 275m. T1 DOMINANT at 26.86% from 175 runs. T2 also strong at 23.94%. Trap draw is the primary signal. S A Birks at 30.77% from 39 runs and S Watson at 35.48% from 31 runs are the top trainers.
T1:26.86% T2:23.94% T3:18.44% T4:21.32% T5:17.33% T6:21.52%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 275m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.