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Sunday Roast Lunch at Sunderland Dogs Stakes
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Rating | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Endearing Smileb 1y 24 | G A Stark — 20% R282 W55 P150 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 59 | 49 | 42 (6) | 42 (5) | 36 (6) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 35 | 50 | - | 50 | - | 16 | 5 | 11/4 | |
| 2 | ▶ Lightfoot Cleod 3y 24 | G Strike — 18% R412 W74 P222 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 43 | 34 (6) | 68 (2) | 51 (5) | 66 (2) | 54 (5) | 64 (3) | 49 (6) | 61 (2) | 69 (3) | 63 (3) | 37 | 35 | - | 35 | 62 | 53 | 1 | 4/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Diddly Squatd 4y 111 | E Y Bell — 22% R530 W115 P300 Trainer form — last 3 months | 92 | 43 | 49 | 78 (1) | 73 (1) | 45 (5) | 54 (4) | 51 (5) | 73 (1) | 58 (2) | 46 (4) | 47 (5) | 44 (6) | 33 | 46 | 24 | 39 | 51 | 47 | 2 | 7/1 | |
| 4 | ▶ Marlfield Rapidod 2y 26 | P Miller — 17% R509 W88 P265 Trainer form — last 3 months | 97 | 52 | 49 | 67 (2) | 81 (1) | 78 (1) | 66 (2) | 70 (2) | 57 (4) | 77 (2) | 69 (3) | 68 (2) | 82 (1) | 43 | 28 | 15 | 28 | 55 | 47 | 3 | 10/11F | |
| 5 | ▶ Autumn Meadowd 3y 16 | J A Teal — 14% R214 W29 P112 Trainer form — last 3 months | 57 | 49 | 53 | 53 (2) | 52 (4) | 43 (5) | 52 (4) | 61 (3) | 59 (3) | 59 (2) | 58 (3) | 54 (3) | 57 (3) | 25 | 26 | 14 | 25 | 57 | 46 | 4 | 7/1 | |
PICK (pred:1). Lightfoot Cleo represents the clearest pick on the card due to perfect convergence of superior ratings and dominant trap position. She carries the best AvgP (62) in the field, representing clear class edge of 7-10 points over rivals at this A4 level. Her composite score of 53 is also the best, demonstrating consistency in the ratings. The structural advantage is equally compelling: she occupies T2 which is the DOMINANT trap at 23.6% from 309 runs, providing 4.5-7.5pp advantage relative to other traps (T3-T4 at 16-17%). In a low-separation race (2.8pp gap), this trap advantage becomes determinative. She is classified as a Closer (EP 47, CS 63) which is appropriate for 450m racing where she can come from behind. Her recent form (2,1,2,5,3) shows a recent 2 and earlier 1, indicating she is current and in winning form despite the trial form (15→25) which represents earlier preparation work. Trainer G Strike maintains a solid 24% win rate. Speed rating of 52 is adequate though not exceptional. The mean suitability of 27 is below average, which is the only weakness in an otherwise compelling profile. However, in a low-separation race where the dominant trap (T2 23.6%) provides such significant structural advantage, the convergence of best AvgP (62) plus best composite (53) plus dominant trap position is overwhelming. This is a pick that combines form edge with positional advantage.
Primary danger despite composite deficit (47 vs 53). Consecutive recent wins (1,1) and P67 flash indicate peak form timing. Fader profile with high EP (57) and good suitability (36) creates early pace control. Running from below-average T3 (16.9%) is disadvantage vs pick's dominant T2. But tactical profile (setting pace) plus current form (1,1 consecutive) creates threat if pick (Closer) cannot find gaps. Danger amplified by form cycle alignment.
Intriguing wildcard with excellent speed (59 — best in field) and best suitability (34). Strong trial form (1,1) and elite trainer (Stark 32%). However, zero graded form is critical limitation. Trial form is not predictive of graded racing at A4 level. Excellent metrics but unproven in actual graded competition. Too speculative vs proven pick and danger, despite attractive profile.
Third-tier runner with class gap (AvgP 55 vs 62), weakest trap (T4 16.1%), and poor suitability (28). Form inconsistent with short history (2,5,3,1). Adequate All-Rounder profile but no compensatory advantage. Significantly behind pick and danger in hierarchy.
Fourth-tier runner with class gap (AvgP 57 vs 62), below-average trap (17.9%), poor suitability (22), and low-tier trainer (Teal 10%). Inconsistent form pattern. No compensatory advantages. Significantly behind pick, danger, and third-tier runner. Bottom-half competitor.
LOW SEPARATION (2.8pp gap) but clear T2 dominant at 23.6% from 309 runs. Trap advantage worth 4.5-7.5pp relative to other traps. In low-separation race, structural trap advantage becomes more decisive. Convergence of best ratings plus dominant trap position is strongest narrative.
T2:23.6% T1:19.1% T5:17.9% T3:16.9% T4:16.1%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 450m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Endearing Smile | 46 | 63 | Closer |
2Lightfoot Cleo | 47 | 63 | Closer |
3Diddly Squat | 57 | 27 | Fader |
4Marlfield Rapido | 50 | 50 | All-Rounder |
5Autumn Meadow | 52 | 47 | All-Rounder |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.