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Friday Night Winning Deal @ Sunderland Dogs Stakes
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Westforth Swiftd 2y 6 | G A Stark — 19% R275 W53 P145 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 40 | 47 | 36 (6) | 55 (2) | 48 (3) | 40 (4) | 46 (2) | 43 (2) | 37 (3) | 41 (4) | 41 (2) | 32 (6) | 26 | 40 | - | 35 | 43 | 40 | 1 | 9/1 | |
| 2 | ▶ Monroe Milod 2y 15 | P Miller — 17% R501 W87 P263 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 56 | 37 | 40 (5) | 49 (5) | 55 (1) | 39 (2) | 45 (6) | 48 (3) | 40 (3) | 61 (5) | 32 (1) | - | 41 | 31 | 28 | 31 | 44 | 41 | 2 | 5/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Hadesthedancerd 2y 25 | E Y Bell — 22% R520 W113 P293 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 51 | 28 (5) | 51 (2) | 41 (2) | 47 (2) | 46 (2) | 34 (3) | 70 (1) | 28 (5) | 36 (5) | 44 (5) | 31 | 27 | 17 | 27 | 42 | 37 | 3 | 5/2 | |
| 4 | ▶ Lazy Loob 1y 5 | D Blackbird — 17% R1089 W183 P590 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 55 | 40 (4) | 50 (2) | 41 (4) | 44 (4) | 39 (6) | 45 (2) | 36 (5) | 58 (1) | 42 (4) | 37 (4) | 6 | 10 | - | 10 | 43 | 31 | 5 | 2/1F | |
| 5 | ▶ Starson Akid 2y 26 | D Blackbird — 17% R1089 W183 P590 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 38 | 58 | 50 (6) | 48 (1) | 22 (2) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 4 | 20 | 14 | 20 | 33 | 27 | 6 | 3/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Crafty Miscob 4y 15 | J A Teal — 14% R206 W28 P108 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 49 | 37 (5) | 33 (6) | 58 (1) | 46 (3) | 45 (3) | 46 (3) | 46 (3) | 43 (4) | 44 (3) | 51 (1) | 29 | 28 | 17 | 27 | 40 | 36 | 4 | 6/1 | |
PICK (pred:1). Westforth Swift carries the best ratings in a flat field with AvgP 47 and composite 43.0, representing the highest class indicator available. The performance trajectory shows improvement with recent peak at 61 following a 59, and the sequence (28→52→40→59→47→61) demonstrates upward momentum in the last three runs. She is trained by G A Stark, who maintains an exceptional 32% win rate — the highest trainer percentage in the race. The form line (5,1,4,3,3) shows a mixed recent sequence with a win (1) two runs ago. However, Westforth Swift is classified as a Closer (EP 44, CS 55) which creates dependency on pace-setters at 450m. More critically, she occupies trap T1 which represents the weakest trap in this race at only 14.5% — a significant structural disadvantage worth 6.3 percentage points relative to the best trap (T4 20.8%). The mean suitability of 27 is poor and suggests below-average grounding in track and distance conditions. In a low-separation field with no trap advantage, her best-ratings profile becomes the deciding factor. She should prevail if pace-setters create opportunities and if conditions align with her form cycle, which currently shows upward trending. Tentative pick confidence reflects the trap disadvantage offsetting her ratings edge.
Primary danger despite lower composite rating (40 vs 43). Best trap position (T3 19.5%, 5.0pp advantage over pick) combined with best speed (54) and best bend (58) create legitimate claim. Fader profile controls early pace. Recent P70 flash indicates form capability. In low-separation race where trap becomes determinative, Hadesthedancer's combination of structural advantage + pace attributes makes her serious threat. Form cycle alignment is key factor.
Third-ranked prediction but recent form collapse (20→10→12) is disqualifying. AvgP 39 lowest in competitive tier. Poor suitability and below-average trap create challenging environment. Unlikely to compete successfully despite recent win (run 4). Form trajectory is downward.
Strongest trap position (T4 20.8%) cannot overcome critically low suitability (8 — lowest in race) and recent form collapse (12→15). Class gap (composite 31) is significant. Despite trap advantage, fundamental deficiencies in conditions alignment make this a poor proposition.
Lowest-rated runner (AvgP 36, composite 29) with severe form collapse (48→22→14→12). Fader profile with weak speed cannot compete in 450m race. Poor suitability and below-average trap create untenable position. Bottom-tier competitor.
Mid-field composite (34) matches Monroe Milo but recent form decline (6,6) is concerning. Closer from below-average trap (16.9%) with low-tier trainer (10%) creates difficult equation. Poor suitability (22) compounds challenges. Not serious threat despite adequate speed metrics.
Extremely flat trap bias across all six traps with only 6.3pp range (T4 20.8% to T1 14.5%). Low separation (1.4pp) indicates genuine depth. No structural advantage means form consistency and pace profile alignment with distance become determinative.
T1:14.5% T2:15.8% T3:19.5% T4:20.8% T5:18.4% T6:16.9%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 450m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Westforth Swift | 49 | 49 | All-Rounder |
2Monroe Milo | 38 | 82 | Closer |
3Hadesthedancer | 51 | 49 | All-Rounder |
4Lazy Loo | 52 | 51 | All-Rounder |
5Starson Aki | 56 | 27 | Fader |
6Crafty Misco | 45 | 69 | Closer |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.