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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Class | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Rating | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Calgray Flyerd 3y 6 | S A Birks — 16% R216 W35 P123 Trainer form — last 3 months | 48 | 52 | 45 (4) | 45 (3) | 41 (4) | 48 (3) | 58 (1) | 48 (3) | 39 (4) | 63 (1) | 15 (3) | 47 (2) | 29 | 28 | 16 | 27 | 44 | 38 | 5 | 6/1 | ||
| 2 | ▶ Fagans Petuniab 4y 27 | M Haythorne — 19% R83 W16 P40 Trainer form — last 3 months | 52 | 52 | 60 (1) | 50 (2) | 45 (3) | 48 (2) | 45 (3) | 58 (1) | 42 (3) | 57 (1) | 51 (2) | 43 (3) | 34 | 35 | 37 | 34 | 47 | 43 | 2 | 5/1 | ||
| 3 | ▶ Hut Fitterd 2y 4 | D Calvert — 17% R541 W92 P310 Trainer form — last 3 months | 56 | 29 | 36 (5) | 31 (5) | 40 (4) | 40 (4) | 30 (5) | 60 (1) | 50 (3) | 30 (5) | 55 (2) | 75 (1) | 41 | 14 | - | 37 | 45 | 40 | 3 | 11/10F | ||
| 4 | ▶ Gizmo Balhoob 3yN/R 16 | A L Steels — 18% R50 W9 P29 Trainer form — last 3 months | 47 | 58 | 35 (4) | 38 (4) | 40 (4) | 49 (3) | 58 (1) | 31 (2) | 36 (5) | 50 (2) | 58 (1) | 44 (2) | 38 | 31 | 28 | 29 | 42 | 39 | - | - | ||
| 5 | ▶ Moss Tang Sallyb 4y 17 | K Everitt — 17% R82 W14 P48 Trainer form — last 3 months | 47 | 47 | 48 (3) | 32 (5) | 36 (5) | 49 (3) | 48 (2) | 41 (5) | 58 (1) | 37 (3) | 35 (4) | 57 (1) | 36 | 31 | 21 | 31 | 43 | 39 | 4 | 7/1 | ||
| 6 | ▶ Redbrick Nuked 2y 27 | J W Gaskin — 23% R325 W74 P227 Trainer form — last 3 months | 55 | 46 | 65 (2) | 60 (3) | 40 (4) | 46 (2) | 47 (3) | 58 (1) | 58 (1) | 43 (5) | 49 (3) | 42 (4) | 69 | 63 | 47 | 63 | 51 | 56 | 1 | 11/8 | ||
The Pred1 model has this dog as the projected winner, and the data supports a solid case. Redbrick Nuke brings the highest composite score in the field (54) with the highest individual suitability across trap (67), track (61), and distance (61) — this dog has proven course-and-distance form that nobody else can match. He is a Closer (EP 44, CS 100) which suits Doncaster fair track character perfectly, and his form reads a consistent 49-42-56-48-48 — not spectacular but reliable, with the 56 showing upside when things click. Trainer J W Gaskin is the standout at these conditions with a 40.74% strike rate from 27 runs at Doncaster 450 B4. T6 wins 22.22% from 198 runs — above expected rate. The concern is that his average perf of 49 is closely matched by Hut Fitter (50) and Fagans Petunia (48), so the margin is thin. But when you combine the suitability dominance, the trainer edge, and the fair track allowing his closing style to thrive, the overall package is the strongest in the field.
Former A4 dog with a 75 perf last time, drawn in the DOMINANT T3 (28.77%). Structural position is excellent. The risk is track unfamiliarity (track suit 15) but the class gap is significant enough to make him a genuine threat.
Consistent placer without the finishing speed to threaten. Lowest perf (43) and speed (47) in the field, running from T1 for the umpteenth time with the same result expected — close but not close enough.
Best raw speed in the field but drawn in the weakest trap with a low-strike trainer. Capable of mid-50s performances but too inconsistent to rely on. Place contender on best form.
Will set the early pace with EP 63 and bend 57 but a confirmed Fader (CS 0) who will weaken through the final bends. The 29 perf last out signals declining form. Pace-maker only.
Declining form trajectory since a B5 win, drawn in the DEAD T5 (16.42%), and trained by Everitt who is 0 from 10 at these conditions. Hard to see a path to victory.
LOW SEPARATION: R1 24.9% vs R3 20.5% — just 4.4pp gap. T3 is structurally dominant at 28.77% from 212 runs, nearly double T5 16.42%. Trainers: J W Gaskin 40.74% from 27 runs, S Watson 46.15% from 13 runs — both elite at these conditions.
T1:20.59% T2:17.5% T3:28.77% T4:21.47% T5:16.42% T6:22.22%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 450m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Calgray Flyer | 52 | 31 | All-Rounder |
2Fagans Petunia | 51 | 46 | All-Rounder |
3Hut Fitter | 0 | 100 | Closer |
4Gizmo Balhoo | 63 | 0 | Fader |
5Moss Tang Sally | 49 | 54 | All-Rounder |
6Redbrick Nuke | 45 | 100 | Closer |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.