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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Cockneys Elsab 2y 7 | S J L Lapidge — 18% R319 W57 P182 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | - | 36 (1) | 36 (1) | 30 (3) | 29 (2) | 32 (2) | 36 (1) | 36 (1) | 24 (5) | 25 (4) | 27 (3) | 13 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 29 | 27 | 3 | 5/4F | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Romantic Sunb 3y 7 | S A Birks — 15% R213 W33 P121 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | - | 32 (1) | 31 (1) | 22 (5) | 34 (1) | 25 (3) | 34 (1) | 25 (3) | 26 (4) | 23 (5) | 36 (1) | 50 | 40 | 47 | 45 | 29 | 35 | 2 | 5/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Links Gloriab 3y 14 | R J Overton — 17% R325 W54 P195 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | - | 32 (2) | 34 (2) | 19 (5) | 31 (2) | 33 (2) | 26 (3) | 26 (4) | 23 (5) | 28 (3) | 35 (1) | 53 | 44 | 46 | 44 | 28 | 35 | 1 | 2/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Ballymac Gailb 4y 34 | S Watson — 31% R408 W126 P285 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | - | 14 (5) | 27 (2) | 24 (3) | 29 (2) | 23 (5) | 32 (1) | 25 (3) | 14 (4) | 25 (2) | 22 (4) | 37 | 31 | 24 | 33 | 25 | 28 | 4 | 7/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Flosses Pradab 2y 15 | D Calvert — 17% R550 W91 P312 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | - | 30 (4) | 34 (2) | 31 (2) | 39 (1) | 28 (4) | 29 (4) | 27 (3) | 26 (5) | 37 (5) | - | 29 | 37 | 8 | 37 | 24 | 28 | 5 | 3/1 | - | |
Tied on composite at 35 with Links Gloria but takes the predicted winner slot. Performance of 29 is modest — typical for D3 level. Form of 1,3,1,3,3 includes two wins from five with perf trend 34→25→34→25→16. The concern is the recent decline — 25 and then 16 in the last two runs is poor. Speed 50 is joint-best in the field. Drawn T2 at 23.8% from 256 runs — a DOMINANT trap at D3 275m, which is the main structural case. Trap suit 50 confirms solid individual form from this box. Track suit 40 and distance suit 45 are adequate. Trainer Birks at 20%. The dominant T2 draw with decent suitability is the foundation of the pick, but the declining form trajectory needs to reverse.
DANGER: Best overall suitability with TrpS 53, TS 44, DS 44. Joint-best speed (50). But T3 draw is only marginally above expected and form is modest (one win from five).
Dominant T1 (27.2%) but very low trap suit (13) means this specific dog doesn't capitalise. Field-best speed (53) is a plus but flat form (25-30 range) and low suitability limit prospects.
Watson at 30% and decent T4 draw (21.2%) are positives, but lower perf (25), speed (48), and inconsistent form limit the ceiling. Watson's placement could mean something.
Four 5ths from five is a concerning pattern despite the 2nd last time. Low ratings (P24, Spd46) and low suitability make involvement unlikely.
Very tight field — composites range from 27-35. Structural signals (trap bias) carry extra weight. T1 and T2 are dominant. Romantic Sun in T2 has the better individual fit than Cockneys Elsa in T1 (trap suit 50 vs 13).
T1:27.2%(173) T2:23.8%(256) T3:18.3%(279) T4:21.2%(255) T5:17.5%(200) T6:21.7%(235)
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 275m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 275m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.