| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ First Chosenb 2y 17 | C Gardiner — 19% R341 W66 P178 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 41 | 70 (1) | 29 (4) | 28 (4) | 43 (6) | 48 (4) | 52 (4) | 63 (2) | 57 (3) | 71 (1) | 62 (2) | 34 | 24 | 28 | 37 | 57 | 44 | 4 | 5/2 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Melbury Tyrd 2y 7 | J J Heath — 21% R347 W72 P213 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 39 | 63 (2) | 72 (1) | 68 (1) | 43 (5) | 62 (1) | 46 (3) | 41 (6) | 43 (5) | 61 (1) | 52 (3) | 65 | 42 | 18 | 49 | 58 | 54 | 3 | 9/2 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Droopys Larab 1y 16 | D A Dark — 29% R41 W12 P28 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 55 | 62 | 72 (1) | 55 (4) | 44 (5) | 66 (2) | 53 (3) | 33 (4) | 31 (3) | 36 (2) | 34 (2) | 56 (5) | 19 | 19 | 11 | 29 | 59 | 46 | 1 | 11/8F | - | |
| 4 | ▶ New Techb 2y 8 | D D Knight — 18% R234 W43 P136 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 61 | 57 (4) | 59 (2) | 57 (4) | 71 (1) | 61 (2) | 63 (1) | 52 (3) | - | - | - | 30 | 39 | 17 | 37 | 60 | 49 | 2 | 7/2 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Peroni Sarahb 2y 6 | B S Green — 21% R422 W89 P249 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 44 | 50 | 53 (4) | 34 (6) | 58 (2) | 60 (3) | 70 (4) | 71 (1) | 55 (3) | 62 (2) | 47 (5) | 65 (1) | 29 | 31 | 12 | 30 | 56 | 43 | 5 | 7/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | First Chosen | 30.02 | 30.30 | 30.25 | 50 | +0.23 | Won at A5 LTO | |
| 2 | Melbury Tyr | 30.05 | 30.35 | 30.05 | 51 | 0.00 | Worst trap 16.9% | |
| 3 | Droopys Lara | 30.03 | 30.18 | 30.03 | 55 | 0.00 | Best trainer rate | |
| 4 | New Tech | 30.00 | 30.21 | 30.22 | 52 | +0.22 | Best average form | |
| 6 | Peroni Sarah | 30.16 | 30.36 | 30.40 | 44 | +0.24 | Best trap, slowest times |
Trap six has edged out trap one as the best draw at this course, distance and grade recently, with trap two the one to avoid at under 17% from 319 runs. The composite model is only a modest guide at this specific level, with raw speed a touch more reliable. New Tech is the one already fully proven at this exact grade, with the best average performance figure in the field and remarkably tight, consistent form. First Chosen and Droopys Lara both arrive off wins, but those came a level down at A5 — good signs, though unproven yet at this grade. Melbury Tyr has an excellent personal record from his own box despite trap two's poor overall record, and was a close second last time out. Peroni Sarah gets the best general draw but carries the slowest recorded time in this field.
Carries the best average performance figure in this field, and unlike a couple of his rivals he's already fully proven at this exact grade rather than stepping up off an easier win. Form has been remarkably tight through the high 50s to low 70s across his last six starts, and he goes fast early which suits a track where the first bend matters. Trap four is a moderate draw rather than the strongest, but the combination of proven grade form and consistency gives him the edge in an open-looking race.
His own personal record from trap two is comfortably the strongest in the field, despite that box being statistically the weakest at this course, distance and grade overall — a genuine case of individual form overriding the general trend. Was runner-up last time out at this same grade and his recent form has been solid and consistent through the 40s to low 70s. Finishes strongly from off the pace. The general trap bias is the only real knock against him.
Won last time out, though that success came at A5 grade, a level below this — a positive sign but as yet unproven at today's tougher level. Form before that had been modest, in the high 20s to high 40s, so the improvement needs confirming rather than assuming. Trap one is a reasonable draw at this course and distance. Interesting on the back of the win but the step up in grade is a genuine question.
Carries the fastest recorded time in the field and is sent out by the best-performing trainer here at 28%, having also won last time out — though that win, like First Chosen's, came at the easier A5 grade rather than today's level. Goes fast early but tends to lose ground in the closing stages, a pattern that could be exposed if the pace is strong throughout. A fair each-way thought given the speed and trainer on her side.
Drawn in trap six, the best general box at this course, distance and grade at 23%, which is a point in her favour. But she carries the slowest recorded time of anyone in this field, and her recent form has dipped — a modest 34 two runs back sandwiched between better efforts. She showed much more figure in the 70s a few races back, so the ability is there, but she needs to rediscover it.
Key insight: Composite Rank 1 is only a modest guide at this course, distance and grade (21.39%), while the fastest recorded time in the field wins 24.5% — speed carries slightly more weight here than the model alone.
T1:22.6% T2:16.9% T3:22.1% T4:18.2% T5:15.3% T6:23.0%
1,495 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 500m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1First Chosen | 50 | 50 | All-Rounder |
2Melbury Tyr | 40 | 85 | Closer |
3Droopys Lara | 64 | 0 | Fader |
4New Tech | 61 | 9 | Fader |
6Peroni Sarah | 0 | 100 | Closer |
Only runs at exactly 500m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (500m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 285m | 491m | 500m | 695m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | First Chosen | 0.591 | 0.616 | 0.606 | — |
| 2 | Melbury Tyr | — | — | 0.607 | — |
| 3 | Droopys Lara | 0.592 | — | 0.604 | — |
| 4 | New Tech | — | — | 0.604 | — |
| 6 | Peroni Sarah | — | — | 0.607 | 0.617 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.