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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Dereks Champd 3y 37 | R P Rees — 23% R135 W31 P76 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 41 | - | 71 (5) | 36 (3) | 46 (1) | 64 (4) | 99 (1) | 65 (5) | 82 (2) | 78 (2) | 89 (2) | 39 (3) | 44 | 25 | 20 | 25 | 40 | 17 | 5 | 6/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Ballydoyle Tobyd 2y 36 | D A Dark — 29% R41 W12 P28 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | - | 92 (1) | 73 (3) | 90 (1) | 87 (1) | 72 (2) | 81 (2) | 39 (2) | 47 (1) | 47 (2) | - | 38 | 43 | 54 | 53 | 44 | 18 | 3 | 11/4 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Ambiguousb 2y 29 | S A Cahill — 21% R378 W81 P231 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | - | - | 86 (3) | 75 (2) | 54 (5) | 69 (2) | 59 (3) | 66 (3) | 74 (1) | 72 (1) | 68 (1) | 36 (5) | 26 | 49 | - | - | 69 | 41 | 6 | 10/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Emers Dexd 2y 1 | P M Donovan — 17% R132 W23 P81 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 55 | - | 47 (1) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 47 | 43 | 1 | 11/4 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Guzzlerd 4y 26 | B S Green — 21% R422 W89 P249 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | - | 82 (2) | 100 (1) | 44 (1) | 100 (1) | 86 (3) | 87 (3) | 100 (1) | 100 (1) | 46 (1) | 46 (1) | 38 | 46 | 55 | 67 | 45 | 44 | 4 | 6/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Slaneyside Swaded 2y 14 | P M Donovan — 17% R132 W23 P81 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | - | 42 (2) | 68 (3) | 91 (2) | 92 (2) | 47 (1) | 38 (3) | 73 (4) | 46 (1) | 45 (1) | 46 (1) | 69 | 56 | 60 | 52 | 44 | 45 | 2 | 7/4F | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dereks Champ | 16.51 | 16.63 | 16.85 | 41 | +0.34 | Slower recently | |
| 2 | Ballydoyle Toby | 16.36 | 16.42 | 16.55 | 52 | +0.19 | Weakest trap 10.8% | |
| 3 | Ambiguous | No recorded race times on file for this dog, but she carries the strongest average performance rating in the field. | — | No times on file | ||||
| 4 | Emers Dex | 16.39 | 16.39 | 16.39 | 55 | 0.00 | Only 1 run on file | |
| 5 | Guzzler | 16.42 | 16.55 | 16.74 | 46 | +0.32 | Two 100-rated peaks | |
| 6 | Slaneyside Swade | 16.31 | 16.50 | 16.44 | 53 | +0.13 | Best trap + near-top speed | |
Hove's 285-metre sprint is one of the most reliable trips in the country for this kind of pre-race analysis — trap six has won just over 30% of D-grade races at the trip, with trap five close behind at 29%, while trap two is a near write-off at under 11%. Speed matters more here than almost anywhere else too, with the fastest recorded time in the field winning 30% of the time. Slaneyside Swade combines the best draw with close to the fastest times on offer and was a close runner-up last time out — a genuine stack of factors in a race where they tend to pay off. Guzzler, from the second-best box, has flashed real brilliance in patches with two peak efforts rated 100 this year, while Ballydoyle Toby drops into D-grade off much stronger form but faces the worst draw in the field.
Drawn in trap six, the strongest box at this course, distance and grade, winning just over 30% of the time from 86 runs. Carries the fastest recorded time in the field and the second-highest speed rating overall, and was runner-up last time out having also touched 91 and 92-rated efforts earlier in his recent form. A versatile type who's shown he can win from this draw. The combination of the best trap and near-top speed makes him the clear pick.
Drawn in trap five, the second-best box at this course, distance and grade at 29%, and capable of flashes of real brilliance — two of his last six runs are rated a maximal 100. Form is volatile around those peaks, but a strong second-place finish last time out suggests he's in good order right now. Strong suitability figures for both class and distance back up the eye-catching best efforts. The one most likely to cause an upset if he brings his A-game.
Carries the strongest average performance rating in this field by some distance, and her recent form is remarkably consistent — nothing lower than 54 in her last six starts, with a solid third-place effort last time out. There are no recorded race times on file for her, which makes her harder to compare on pace alone, but the sheer consistency of her form is hard to ignore. Trap three is a reasonable draw at 25% here. Could easily outrun her odds if she's overlooked.
Drops down into D-grade off the back of some really strong form at a much higher level, including a win rated 92 at A1 over the longer trip in his last outing there. That class edge is real, but trap two has been by far the weakest draw at this course, distance and grade, managing under 11% from 93 runs. A dog who looks better than this grade on paper but has a serious structural obstacle to overcome.
Only one run showing on file, a win last time out, so there's very little history to judge him on despite carrying the fastest recorded time and top speed rating in the field. One good run doesn't make an established performer, and trap four has been one of the weaker draws at this course and distance. Promising on the limited evidence but unproven.
Been off the track since late April and the form since has been modest, with a last-six sequence including a well-beaten last-place effort. He finishes his races off strongly from off the pace, which is a useful trait, but the slowest recorded time in this field and a below-average draw make him hard to fancy. Needs a big step forward from recent efforts.
Key insight: Trap 6 is the strongest draw at this course, distance and grade at just over 30%, with trap 5 close behind — together the two best boxes in the race. The fastest recorded time in the field wins 30.14% of these races, a stronger signal than the composite model.
T1:17.2% T2:10.8% T3:25.0% T4:13.6% T5:29.1% T6:30.2%
525 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 285m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 285m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (285m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 277m | 285m | 400m | 500m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dereks Champ | — | 0.586 | 0.608 | — |
| 2 | Ballydoyle Toby | — | 0.579 | — | 0.593 |
| 3 | Ambiguous | — | 0.579 | — | 0.603 |
| 4 | Emers Dex | — | 0.575 | — | — |
| 5 | Guzzler | — | 0.578 | — | — |
| 6 | Slaneyside Swade | 0.586 | 0.581 | — | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.