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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Scala Inab 2y 211 | T D Coote — 19% R573 W110 P290 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 45 | 100 | 58 (2) | 62 (2) | 63 (1) | 55 (2) | 48 (3) | 18 (6) | 21 (5) | 19 (6) | 31 (6) | - | 60 | 51 | - | 51 | 21 | 37 | 3 | 5/1 | |
| 2 | ▶ Killybegs Bellb 5y 48 | M N May — 16% R271 W43 P106 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | - | 11 (6) | 18 (6) | 29 (1) | 22 (5) | 24 (4) | 18 (5) | 21 (5) | 22 (5) | 28 (2) | 23 (4) | 34 | 30 | 24 | 28 | 23 | 27 | 5 | 2/1F | |
| 3 | ▶ Deecee Nikkib 2y 16 | W M Lyons — 19% R1040 W201 P556 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 57 | 22 | 59 (2) | 49 (4) | 75 (1) | 60 (4) | 55 (3) | 75 (1) | 70 (1) | 66 (2) | 27 (2) | 23 (4) | 63 | 41 | 11 | 40 | 49 | 50 | 1 | 7/2 | |
| 4 | ▶ Stan Bowd 4y 27 | M N May — 16% R271 W43 P106 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | - | 11 (6) | 14 (6) | 12 (6) | 20 (5) | 22 (4) | 17 (6) | 24 (2) | 19 (5) | 24 (4) | 26 (5) | 35 | 24 | 43 | 27 | 22 | 26 | 2 | 3/1 | |
| 5 | ▶ Blackbell Minib 3y 4 | I Zivkovic — 13% R602 W81 P284 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 50 | 24 (3) | 41 (2) | 39 (2) | 31 (4) | 27 (5) | 34 (2) | 47 (6) | 39 (2) | 37 (4) | - | 22 | 51 | 18 | 18 | 41 | 36 | 6 | 9/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Gazes Bobyd 4y 26 | W M Lyons — 19% R1040 W201 P556 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | - | 21 (4) | 24 (3) | 28 (1) | 26 (3) | 22 (3) | 27 (2) | 24 (4) | 26 (2) | 25 (4) | 22 (5) | 35 | 26 | 27 | 29 | 25 | 28 | 4 | 4/1 | |
Extraordinary class advantage: avgPerf (49 field best by 28 points over next best) combined with T3 MOST DOMINANT (24.6%, 252 runs—strongest trap on card) creates overwhelming structural convergence. Speed (57 field best) proves mechanical pace capability. However, the critical structural risk at 268m sprint: extreme closer profile (CS=100, pace consistency=100 confirms extreme closing reliance) is fundamentally wrong profile for a distance where there is no room to close. At Valley 260m analogue, closers simply cannot win—the distance is too short and opponent positions too established. Deecee Nikki's recent form (23→51→25 trial→44→46) shows trial win (25 T1trial is weak) and competitive A5 runs (44, 46) suggesting capability. Trainer W M Lyons (20% WR moderate) reliable. The prediction ranks Nikki as 1st despite the closer profile mismatch. This is justified ONLY if Nikki's class advantage (avgPerf 49 vs field avg 25, a 24-point gap) is large enough that even an extreme closer can win IF she gets to the front early from T3 dominant. Bend (22) is weak—not ideal for early corner drive at 268m but not disqualifying. Trap suitability (63 field best) is perfect, confirming T3 dominant is exactly the right draw for Nikki's profile. The logic: Nikki enters the race from T3 (24.6% dominant), has class (avgPerf 49) that makes other runners seem pedestrian, and if she can secure early position that her avgPerf advantage enables, her extreme closer nature means she will hold any lead through to the finish (closing speed at the end of the line doesn't matter if you're already at the front). The risk: if she doesn't lead early from a poor start, the extreme closer profile with weak bend (22) will prevent recovery—she will finish mid-field. This is a prediction that asks for extreme early execution from Nikki to leverage class and trap advantage. Form is unproven at D4 (44-46 recent is A5 level) and closer profile contradicts sprint requirements. Prediction is defensible but risky.
Perfect pace profile (EP=100, bend=100, fader) for 268m sprint from dominant T1 (20.1%), but extremely weak class (avgPerf=21, speed=45). Will likely lead but may not hold.
Chronic 5th place finisher (5th, 5th, 5th, 4th). Weak metrics (avgPerf=23), weak trainer (6% WR). No pace profile advantage at sprint. Outside places.
Consistent midfield (4th, 6th, 5th, 4th) without standout capability. Weak class (avgPerf=22), weak trainer (6% WR). No pace advantage at sprint. Outside places.
A7-462m/A8-462m runner dropped to D4-268m sprint with wrong distance form and dead T5 trap. Distance suit (18), weak speed (47). Will struggle.
Consistent D4-268m specialist with T6 dominant position but weak class (avgPerf=25, speed=50). Will likely place if form holds. Mid-field favorite.
At 268m sprint, early pace (EP), bend rating, and pace profile are ONLY factors that matter. Performance ratings are secondary. Deecee Nikki has avgPerf (49) class advantage and T3 dominant (24.6%) but extreme closer profile (CS=100) is wrong profile for sprint. Scala Ina has perfect pace setup (EP=100, bend=100, fader) and T1 dominant but weak class (avgPerf=21). Class vs pace profile showdown.
T1:20.1% DOMINANT (234 runs) T2:17.9% (291 runs) T3:24.6% MOST DOMINANT (252 runs) T4:16.9% (284 runs) T5:10.7% DEAD (242 runs) T6:20.6% DOMINANT (267 runs)
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 268m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.