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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Tommys Niftyb 1y 14 | J G Hurst — 18% R268 W48 P153 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | 43 | 47 (5) | 44 (6) | 55 (4) | 63 (2) | 54 (4) | 75 (1) | 43 (5) | 57 (3) | 50 (5) | 75 (1) | 39 | 43 | 17 | 40 | 56 | 49 | 2 | 9/2 | |
| 2 | ▶ Deecee Avab 2y 27 | W M Lyons — 19% R1042 W201 P556 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 53 | 63 (3) | 52 (5) | 43 (5) | 63 (2) | 64 (2) | 43 (5) | 39 (6) | 75 (1) | 62 (2) | 42 (6) | 34 | 35 | 22 | 27 | 56 | 46 | 4 | 9/2 | |
| 3 | ▶ Grumpy Kevind 2y 7 | N Langley — 16% R207 W33 P115 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 56 | 47 (5) | 80 (1) | 46 (5) | 77 (1) | 62 (2) | 42 (6) | 50 (5) | 62 (2) | 74 (1) | 74 (1) | 43 | 36 | 54 | 33 | 59 | 50 | 3 | 15/2 | |
| 4 | ▶ How Ya Fixedd 3y 5 | I Zivkovic — 13% R603 W81 P285 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 50 | 32 (6) | 66 (2) | 50 (5) | 42 (6) | 43 (5) | 63 (2) | 54 (4) | 48 (6) | 42 (6) | 59 (4) | 39 | 37 | 34 | 31 | 59 | 49 | 1 | 9/2 | |
| 5 | ▶ Lightfoot Rosab 2y 9 | W M Lyons — 19% R1042 W201 P556 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 56 | 79 (1) | 80 (1) | 49 (6) | 79 (1) | 45 (6) | 66 (3) | 66 (2) | 48 (6) | 42 (5) | 59 (4) | 31 | 50 | 30 | 29 | 60 | 49 | 5 | 5/4F | |
| 6 | ▶ Step The Beatb 3y 33 | W M Lyons — 19% R1042 W201 P556 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 55 | 46 | 37 (6) | 61 (4) | 65 (3) | 73 (2) | 80 (1) | 56 (5) | 71 (2) | 75 (1) | 24 (4) | 31 (3) | 55 | 37 | 30 | 30 | 46 | 45 | 6 | 5/1 | |
Dropping from A4 into A5—a downward class movement—with consistent, repeatable form at A4 (60→49→53→66→53 in last five, averaging 56, with a 66 peak two runs back at A4). I Zivkovic (20% WR, moderate) has placed the dog. T4 is neutral (17% baseline). Speed 49 is mid-field. All-Rounder pace (EP=52, CS=48, balanced for 462m) is ideal for this distance. Composite 49 is mid-field. Suitability across track (37), distance (31), and trap (39) is decent, showing balanced fit. The analytical edge is consistency: the dog has averaged 56 across five recent A4 runs with a clear 66 peak and no crash forms, indicating reliable 53-60 range performance. In an ultra-low-separation field (R1-R3 gap 0.1pp) where the field offers multiple 75-win forms but also question marks (Tommys Nifty with Closer profile and T1 constraint; Deecee Ava with distance suit 27; Grumpy Kevin with trial form ambiguity), How Ya Fixed represents the steady, proven consistency angle. The dog is dropping into an easier grade after consistent A4 performances. The risk is that A4 consistency (averaging 56) may not be sufficient against the higher-form recent winners (75 wins) if they reproduce current form. However, consistency and stability count in ultra-low-separation races where the field cannot separate cleanly. Medium confidence reflects the dog's solid but not elite form (56 A4 average, not 75 peaks) and the presence of multiple form-peak threats.
Field-best speed (61) with recent 75 A5 win and avgPerf 56 make this elite threat. Closer profile at T1 is constraint (needs space late). Danger rating warranted despite pace-profile mismatch with position.
Recent 75 A5 win with All-Rounder pace and consistency 85 make this credible threat. Distance suit 27 is concern and speed 49 inferior to Tommys Nifty's 61. Form inconsistency present. Danger status warranted but secondary to Tommys Nifty.
Dominant T3 draw (20.2%), field-best bend (60), field-best class suit (54), and solid avgPerf 59 create powerful structural alignment. However, form is unclear: recent 74 is trial form (reliability question) and prior form at A4 level. Danger if 74 is genuine A5 form, but form ambiguity limits threat ranking below Tommys Nifty and Deecee Ava.
Front Runner with strong speed 51 and 79 A4 peak form showing capability. However, distance suit 29 (below-average for 462m) is concern and the dog faces elite threats with recent A5-specific wins. Respectable form but not danger-rated.
One impressive 75 A5 win recent but very limited A5 form history (prior D3/trials). Avgperf 46 is below field. Cannot be confident in repeating 75 form with only one open A5 race reference. Not danger-rated.
Ultra-low-separation field (0.1pp R1-R3 gap) where composite scores are noise. T3 is dominant trap but one dog with recent 75-win form and two with 75-win form plus elite speed are serious threats. Recent winning performance and consistency metrics are primary analytical drivers.
T1: ~17%, T2: ~18%, T3: 20.2% (DOMINANT, 356 runs), T4: ~17%, T5: ~17%, T6: ~17%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 462m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Tommys Nifty | 44 | 59 | Closer |
2Deecee Ava | 50 | 47 | All-Rounder |
3Grumpy Kevin | 48 | 52 | All-Rounder |
4How Ya Fixed | 52 | 48 | All-Rounder |
5Lightfoot Rosa | 58 | 46 | Front Runner |
6Step The Beat | 50 | 74 | Closer |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.