Loading racecard
Loading racecard
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Chamberlain Jetb 4y 16 | I Zivkovic — 13% R602 W81 P284 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | - | 19 (5) | 23 (4) | 21 (3) | 15 (5) | 23 (3) | 16 (5) | 21 (4) | 63 (3) | 25 (3) | 24 (3) | 29 | 29 | 26 | 36 | 33 | 32 | 4 | 7/4F | |
| 2 | ▶ Glensheeb 4y 16 | J S Atkins — 14% R288 W39 P152 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 41 | 34 | 22 (4) | 23 (4) | 30 (1) | 27 (2) | 25 (2) | 14 (5) | 27 (2) | 26 (2) | 27 (2) | 29 (1) | 44 | 37 | 37 | 37 | 24 | 31 | 3 | 8/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Swift Perryd 1y 14 | J Robinson — 19% R295 W56 P168 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | - | 23 (3) | 23 (4) | 25 (6) | 36 (6) | 20 (5) | 29 (6) | 27 (2) | 25 (3) | 22 (4) | 32 (1) | 47 | 56 | - | 56 | 19 | 34 | 1 | 11/4 | |
| 4 | ▶ Noirs Coachd 5y 25 | J G Hurst — 18% R267 W48 P152 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 45 | 66 | 22 (3) | 17 (6) | 15 (6) | 23 (2) | 22 (3) | 29 (1) | 23 (4) | 29 (1) | 29 (1) | 24 (3) | 35 | 33 | 26 | 31 | 27 | 30 | 5 | 5/1 | |
| 5 | ▶ Crystal Buckd 2y 16 | I Zivkovic — 13% R602 W81 P284 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | - | 19 (5) | 26 (2) | 27 (2) | 26 (3) | 30 (1) | 34 (4) | 30 (6) | 15 (6) | 17 (6) | 22 (4) | 25 | 40 | 37 | 40 | 22 | 27 | 2 | 4/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Darver Is Homeb 4y 17 | M N May — 16% R271 W43 P106 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | - | 17 (5) | 19 (5) | 19 (5) | 20 (5) | 20 (4) | 16 (6) | 22 (3) | 23 (3) | 22 (3) | 18 (5) | 47 | 41 | 45 | 41 | 23 | 32 | 6 | 5/1 | |
Elite suitability alignment (56 track, 56 distance, 47 trap, 0 class) marks this as the standout individual fit to Kinsley 268m D5 conditions, an exceptional 112-point total versus field-average suitability in the 100-120 range. Composite 34 is highest in field despite the performance metric being only 19, indicating the suitability scores (56/56/47) are the analytical weight. T3 at 15.0% is the dead trap (153 runs, 10% below expectancy), a severe structural headwind that would normally disqualify a pick unless suitability or form compensation were extraordinary. Swift Perry's exceptional suitability IS that compensation—the dog has proven form at these exact conditions (56 track, 56 distance, 47 trap) repeatedly. J Robinson (14% WR, below average) has the weakest trainer placement in the field, adding concern. Form is weak overall (20→18→20→19→20 in last five) showing 19-20 repeatable range with no standout performances, indicating this is a dog that functions at a modest level despite exceptional suitability. Speed 51 is solid. The pickup writeup noted this dog as the suitability leader, and this picks up that signal: exceptional individual fit to conditions can overcome a dead trap draw when the suitability is this elite (56/56). In a low-separation field (2.6pp R1-R3 gap) where composite scores predict 19.1% for rank 1 versus 16.5% for rank 3 (a 2.6pp gap that is noise), suitability becomes the primary analytical signal. Swift Perry's 56/56 is the suitability story of the race. The T3 dead trap is a real concern and recent form (19-20) is modest, but the structural fit is exceptional. Tentative confidence reflects the dead-trap liability and weak form, but the pick stands on suitability dominance in a low-separation field.
Back-to-back D5 wins (29→29) proves genuine capability at exact conditions. Fader pace profile is concern (risks fading late if challenged) but form superiority evident. Danger based purely on recent proven form at these conditions despite pace-profile mismatch.
Best speed in field (53) and 63 HP performance shows capability, but recent 21 at D5 indicates form dip and T1 disadvantage limits threat. Upside play if form improves but not strong case presently.
Dominant T2 draw is offset by pure Closer pace profile that doesn't suit early-lead trap. Form volatility (29→15→12→22→12) shows inconsistency. Last win at D5 (29) was on a day when early pacers tired; not a structural strength.
Dropping form (24→22→17 recent trend) combined with weak T5 draw (15.7%) makes this a non-contender. Suitability is decent (track 40) but form decline is primary concern. Will be close but lacks evidence to threaten pick.
Above-average suitability (41-47) and prior 30 win proves capability, but recent form decline (23-18 trend) indicates dog is off current form. Upside potential if form recovers but recent trajectory is downward.
Same conditions as Race 1. Low separation (2.6pp R1-R3 gap) means composite scores are noise—trap bias and suitability dominate. T2 wins at 52% above expectancy. Dogs in dead traps (T3, T5) face significant structural headwind requiring elite form or suitability to overcome. Swift Perry's 56/56 track/distance suitability is elite alignment but T3 draw is the primary liability.
T1: 17.3%, T2: 25.4% (DOMINANT, 181 runs), T3: 15.0% (WEAK, 153 runs), T4: 19.4%, T5: 15.7% (WEAK, 185 runs), T6: 18.9%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 268m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.