www.newcastle-greyhounds.co.uk Stakes
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Smiling Evamacb 2y 15 | J J Fenwick — 18% R498 W92 P271 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 29 | 53 | 23 (5) | 58 (2) | 34 (1) | 23 (4) | 41 (5) | 35 (2) | 26 (5) | 45 (5) | 70 (1) | 35 (4) | 24 | 23 | - | 26 | 37 | 28 | 5 | 13/8F | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Wraysbury Kingd 2y 27 | P Rutherford — 18% R331 W59 P166 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 25 | 44 | 40 (6) | 68 (1) | 35 (6) | 61 (2) | 39 (3) | 34 (6) | 70 (1) | 40 (2) | 38 (2) | 38 (3) | 1 | 37 | - | 38 | 48 | 27 | 6 | 12/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Vinny Chaseb 1y 17 | J T Edgar — 17% R536 W89 P288 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 33 | 37 | 64 (2) | 58 (2) | 55 (4) | 69 (1) | 54 (2) | 24 (5) | 13 (6) | 50 (3) | 34 (6) | - | 4 | 26 | - | 32 | 52 | 35 | 4 | 8/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Alnwick Hawsd 2y 14 | A Harrison — 22% R543 W118 P320 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 76 | 44 | 58 (4) | 55 (3) | 57 (3) | 68 (1) | 48 (5) | 58 (2) | 51 (4) | 56 (2) | 56 (3) | 53 (2) | 25 | 31 | - | 28 | 56 | 41 | 2 | 11/4 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Swift Kingd 2y 4 | S Ray — 14% R365 W50 P204 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 64 | 70 | 48 (5) | 63 (3) | 53 (5) | 57 (3) | 42 (6) | 76 (1) | 82 (2) | 56 (4) | 42 (6) | 66 (2) | - | 28 | - | 21 | 57 | 53 | 3 | 7/2 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ A Bit Of Maurb 1y 15 | S Ray — 14% R365 W50 P204 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 77 | 67 | 49 (5) | 55 (4) | 49 (5) | 65 (2) | 49 (5) | 69 (3) | 60 (4) | 59 (4) | 55 (5) | 70 (3) | 20 | 30 | - | 12 | 58 | 56 | 1 | 7/2 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Smiling Evamac | 30.20 | 30.59 | 30.47 | 29 | +0.27 | Different trip last time | |
| 2 | Wraysbury King | 30.22 | 30.54 | 30.76 | 25 | +0.54 | Slowest in field | |
| 3 | Vinny Chase | 30.12 | 30.67 | 30.12 | 33 | 0.00 | Placed last time out | |
| 4 | Alnwick Haws | 29.38 | 29.62 | 29.47 | 76 | +0.09 | 4+ month layoff | |
| 5 | Swift King | 29.35 | 29.81 | 29.96 | 64 | +0.61 | Poor trap fit | |
| 6 | A Bit Of Maur | 29.12 | 29.47 | 29.83 | 77 | +0.71 | Fastest in field |
Newcastle's handicap card over 480m is one of the hardest puzzles the model faces at this track - the top-rated dog wins under 19% here, well below what the same rating achieves in graded racing, because the staggered marks even the field out. Traps 1 and 2 have still been the ones to be drawn in, winning around a fifth of the time between them, while traps 4 and 5 have been almost unwinnable - barely one in eight. A Bit Of Maur breaks fastest of the six and has the best recent figures on the clock, so if he can use that speed to clear that awkward wide box early he'll take plenty of catching. Alnwick Haws matches him for pace but hasn't raced since March, which is too big a gap to trust blindly. Vinny Chase, who was second last time out under similar conditions, looks the most likely to be involved for a long way if the front two find trouble.
The fastest dog in the field on recent times and also the one with the best average performance rating - a rare case of the two strongest signals lining up on the same dog. Quick away and has the pace to lead from this outside box before it becomes a disadvantage. Form has been a little up and down but the peaks have been well clear of this level. Handicap racing at Newcastle is notoriously hard to call, so this isn't a banker, but on pure ability he's the one to beat.
Finished runner-up last time out under similar handicap conditions and his form has been admirably consistent - in the frame in most of his recent starts. Not the fastest dog in the field but he races evenly and rarely lets himself down, which counts for plenty in a race as open as this. If the leaders find traffic or fold late, he's the type to be there to take advantage.
Drawn in what's been the best box in these handicaps, winning over a fifth of the time, but her figures are well behind most of these on the clock and her last outing was actually over a much shorter trip so isn't a fair guide to how she'll go tonight. Form before that was moderate rather than strong. The trap gives her a puncher's chance but there's a lot of ground to make up on pure ability.
Good trap to be drawn in and he does finish his races strongly from off the pace, but the raw pace numbers are the slowest of anyone in this line-up and his last run was well below par. He'll need the race to fall apart in front of him rather than force the issue himself. Hard to have much confidence on what he's shown recently.
On the clock alone this is close to the fastest dog in the race, with a strong finishing kick to match, and the figures from earlier in the year were genuinely smart. The trouble is he hasn't raced since early March - more than four months out of the game - and that kind of gap makes it very difficult to trust the form blindly, whatever the times say. Drawn in the weakest box in these handicaps too, which doesn't help his cause. Watch the market for a steer on fitness.
Capable of a big finishing effort when things fall right for him, but his figures are patchy and inconsistent from run to run, and he's drawn in a trap that's historically been almost unwinnable in these handicaps. Last time out he was well beaten. Needs plenty to go his way to figure.
Key insight: Handicap racing at Newcastle 480m is a genuinely tough puzzle - the top-rated dog wins under 19%, the weakest composite signal of any grade at this track and distance, so no pick here should be rated above Tentative on the model alone.
T1:22.2% T2:20.7% T3:17.0% T4:12.0% T5:11.5% T6:20.0%
2,769 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 480m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Smiling Evamac | 66 | 0 | Fader |
2Wraysbury King | 50 | 55 | Closer |
3Vinny Chase | 50 | 2 | All-Rounder |
4Alnwick Haws | 50 | 96 | Closer |
5Swift King | 0 | 100 | Closer |
6A Bit Of Maur | 76 | 45 | Front Runner |
Only runs at exactly 480m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (480m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 290m | 480m | 640m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Smiling Evamac | 0.618 | 0.637 | — |
| 2 | Wraysbury King | — | 0.636 | — |
| 3 | Vinny Chase | — | 0.639 | — |
| 4 | Alnwick Haws | — | 0.618 | — |
| 5 | Swift King | — | 0.621 | 0.628 |
| 6 | A Bit Of Maur | — | 0.615 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.