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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Moanteen Oscard 1yREP 16 | E G Samuels — 15% R598 W90 P319 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 54 | 50 | 83 (1) | 46 (4) | 77 (1) | 51 (4) | 70 (1) | - | - | - | - | - | 44 | 33 | - | 45 | 66 | 47 | 2 | 11/4 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Hello Laineyb 2y 26 | M Lewis — 16% R248 W39 P120 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 38 | 50 | 60 (3) | 45 (6) | 36 (1) | 20 (5) | 27 (4) | 28 (4) | 74 (1) | 57 (4) | 50 (5) | 47 (6) | 1 | 14 | - | - | 56 | 26 | 5 | 11/4 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Carrigoon Wesd 3y 18 | K J Cobbold — 26% R203 W53 P132 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 45 | 61 | 81 (1) | 67 (3) | 58 (4) | 72 (2) | 66 (3) | 52 (1) | 46 (4) | 56 (5) | 55 (4) | - | 35 | 17 | 11 | 31 | 65 | 39 | 3 | 10/3 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Romantic Stormb 2y 27 | S Knights — 20% R144 W29 P78 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 56 | 46 | 68 (2) | 70 (3) | 49 (6) | 87 (1) | 69 (4) | 65 (4) | 76 (2) | 67 (5) | 92 (1) | 82 (4) | 44 | 33 | 31 | 31 | 70 | 44 | 1 | 15/8F | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Bodell Bucksd 4y 25 | M P Brown — 18% R397 W73 P211 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 40 | 62 (4) | 56 (6) | 60 (5) | 86 (1) | 48 (6) | 75 (3) | 52 (5) | 85 (1) | 58 (3) | 52 (4) | 22 | 23 | 34 | 21 | 63 | 40 | 4 | 7/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Bodell Bucks | 27.95 | 28.47 | 28.58 | 54 | +0.63 | Fastest raw time | |
| 4 | Romantic Storm | 28.06 | 28.33 | 28.35 | 58 | +0.29 | Model pick | |
| 3 | Carrigoon Wes | 28.32 | 28.59 | 28.45 | 47 | +0.13 | Steps up in class | |
| 1 | Swift You | 28.20 | 28.49 | 28.63 | 49 | +0.43 | 1 win last 6 | |
| 2 | Hello Lainey | 28.54 | 28.73 | 28.54 | 40 | 0.00 | Win came at 277m |
This is the top grade on the card over Yarmouth's fair, well-cambered 462 metres, a track that produces the fewest all-the-way winners in the country - just one in five - because the long home straight so often reels in the leaders. Trap position barely matters here, so this is a race about who has the pace late rather than who gets there first. Romantic Storm and Bodell Bucks are the two out-and-out closers in the field and both look sharpest on the clock, meaning the finish is likely to be shaped in the closing stages rather than settled at the bend. Carrigoon Wes, up in grade after winning last time, will need to be involved early to have any chance of holding on.
Placed second last time out and has been competitive without quite landing a win in her last six starts. She tops both the ratings and the speed figures in this field - the strongest possible combination, since those two measures are the two best predictors in the whole database. She finishes strongly from off the pace, exactly the profile that suits Yarmouth's long home straight, and she has proven ability well above this level, having raced in open company at her peak. Her trainer's record at this track and grade is modest rather than outstanding, but the ratings and the clock both point the same way. The one they all have to beat.
Fourth last time out but has won once from her last six and shown enough to stay interesting. She holds the fastest recorded time of anyone in this field, though her average trails that best effort, suggesting the very fastest run is the exception rather than the rule. She finishes strongly from off the pace too, another closer type suited to this track's long straight. The stand-out factor is her trainer, who wins better than one in three at this track and grade - comfortably the best trainer record in the race. If Romantic Storm doesn't have the race run to suit, this is the type to pounce late.
Won nicely last time out but that was at the grade below, and she now steps up to face tougher opposition here. She tends to show good early pace before losing ground late, which is a risky profile at a track where the long straight regularly catches the leaders. Drawn in the best box in the race, which is a genuine plus, and she has a fair record at this track and trip - two wins from ten runs. The class rise combined with a fading finish make her vulnerable against the two closers at the head of this market.
Fourth last time out and has managed only the one win from her last six starts, though she was runner-up two starts back. A balanced runner rather than a pure closer, she sits mid-pack on both the ratings and the speed figures in this field. Her course and distance record is a reasonable one, three wins from nine runs at this exact track and trip. Nothing stands out as a strong positive or a fatal flaw - she looks the type more likely to pick up places than force her way into the winner's enclosure against this field.
Third last time out and her only recent win came at the much shorter 277-metre trip rather than at today's distance, so there's a genuine question over whether she stays this test as well as the others. She shows fast early pace but tends to fade late, a combination that works poorly on a track where the finishing kick decides so many races. Her course and distance record at this exact trip is thin, with no wins from two runs. The bottom of the ratings and the speed figures in this field, and the running style works against her too.
Key insight: The fastest dog in the field wins more often than the top-rated dog at this track and grade - nearly 27% for the quickest on the clock against 24% for the top-rated dog - so speed is the leading indicator here.
Trap 3 best at 25%, trap 6 weakest at 14% - a modest spread at this fair track
1,787 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 462m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Moanteen Oscar | 49 | 50 | All-Rounder |
2Hello Lainey | 57 | 34 | Fader |
3Carrigoon Wes | 65 | 28 | Fader |
4Romantic Storm | 0 | 100 | Closer |
5Bodell Bucks | 50 | 63 | Closer |
Only runs at exactly 462m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (462m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 277m | 462m | 525m | 659m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Moanteen Oscar | — | 0.618 | — | — |
| 2 | Hello Lainey | 0.610 | 0.622 | 0.568 | — |
| 3 | Carrigoon Wes | — | 0.619 | — | — |
| 4 | Romantic Storm | — | 0.613 | — | 0.636 |
| 5 | Bodell Bucks | — | 0.616 | — | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.