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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Stormy Neymard 2y 5 | E G Samuels — 15% R598 W90 P319 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | - | 39 (2) | 32 (3) | 45 (1) | 34 (3) | 46 (1) | 37 (2) | 36 (2) | 23 (5) | 46 (1) | 29 (5) | 22 | 41 | 48 | 48 | 37 | 38 | 5 | 10/3 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Miss Bossyb 4y 15 | E G Samuels — 15% R598 W90 P319 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | - | 31 (3) | 46 (1) | 41 (2) | 48 (5) | 57 (5) | 92 (1) | 44 (6) | 41 (6) | 48 (2) | - | 40 | 41 | 39 | 40 | 39 | 34 | 3 | 11/4 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Essex Gunnerd 2y 5 | M P Brown — 18% R397 W73 P211 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | - | 46 (1) | 80 (3) | 44 (1) | 28 (5) | 38 (2) | 42 (1) | 38 (2) | 68 (5) | 54 (2) | 68 (1) | 35 | 60 | 45 | 61 | 43 | 46 | 1 | 9/4F | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Dick Turpind 4y 25 | J G Mullins — 14% R120 W17 P71 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 45 | - | 89 (1) | 56 (4) | 77 (3) | 73 (3) | 52 (4) | 78 (2) | 38 (3) | 70 (4) | 82 (3) | 71 (4) | 32 | 34 | 32 | 18 | 38 | 25 | 4 | 9/2 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Bucking Bucksd 4y 15 | M P Brown — 18% R397 W73 P211 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | - | 39 (2) | 36 (3) | 36 (4) | 47 (1) | 20 (6) | 46 (1) | 46 (1) | 41 (1) | 17 (3) | 68 (4) | 37 | 38 | 43 | 45 | 37 | 38 | 2 | 3/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Bucking Bucks | 16.20 | 16.55 | 16.44 | 52 | +0.24 | Tied fastest, worst trap | |
| 3 | Essex Gunner | 16.31 | 16.52 | 16.35 | 52 | +0.04 | Model pick | |
| 4 | Dick Turpin | 16.54 | 16.54 | 16.54 | 45 | 0.00 | 462m → 277m | |
| 2 | Miss Bossy | 16.31 | 16.48 | 16.77 | 47 | +0.46 | 0 wins from 6 | |
| 1 | Stormy Neymar | 16.30 | 16.61 | 16.47 | 48 | +0.17 | Consistent placer |
Yarmouth's 462-metre circuit is famously fair with almost no trap bias, but the minimum trip of 277 metres plays out very differently - this is a race decided by early pace and the first bend rather than by finishing kick. Essex Gunner has the rare combination of the fastest recorded time in the field, the top rating, and the best box in the race, so she should be able to dictate matters from the get-go. Bucking Bucks matches her on the clock but comes from the least productive draw at this trip, so he'll need to overcome the box rather than be helped by it. Dick Turpin is the outlier, dropping in sharply from stronger 462-metre company and untested at this shorter trip.
Won last time out at this exact track and trip and has been in good form generally, with a placed run at the higher OR grade two starts back showing there's more depth to her than the grade suggests. She matches the fastest recorded time in this field and her most recent run was the quickest of anyone's last outing. She's drawn in the best box in the race by some distance - trap three produces well over one in three winners at this trip and grade, more than double the worst draw. Her trainer wins close to three in ten in these conditions, one of the stronger records here, and she boasts an outstanding course and distance record with three wins from six runs. Every factor points the same way.
Runner-up last time out and has been a model of consistency at this trip and grade, with four wins from her last ten runs at this exact course and distance. She matches Essex Gunner as the fastest recorded dog in the field on the clock, which is a serious claim in a sprint where pace decides so much. The concern is the draw - trap six has been comfortably the least productive box at this trip and grade, winning below one in ten. Same trainer as the pick, which adds a layer of stable intrigue to how this race is run. If she can overcome the outside draw, she has the raw pace to trouble the selection.
Won impressively last time out, but that was at A2 grade over the much longer 462-metre trip - a completely different test to today's minimum-distance sprint. Almost all of his recent form has come at 462 metres in stronger A1 and A2 company, with only a single run at this shorter trip in the last six months, so there's essentially no recent evidence either way on whether the speed translates. His average time reads modestly here, but that's built almost entirely from a different distance. If the drop in trip suits, the class edge from racing tougher company could tell; if it doesn't, he may simply be short of the gears needed over the minimum. A watching brief.
Consistent without being spectacular, placing second last time out and racing to a similar level throughout her recent starts at this exact trip. She's not among the two fastest in this field but isn't far off it either, and she owns a strong course and distance record with three wins from ten runs here. The rail draw is a fair, unremarkable box at this trip. She looks the type to pick up a place if the pace up front becomes messy, but lacks the standout factor needed to threaten the principals for the win.
Third last time out without a win in her last three starts at this trip, though she was competitive throughout. She owns the best average time of anyone in this field even without a standout single best effort, suggesting steady rather than spectacular pace. Drawn in the second-best box at this trip and grade, which is a genuine positive. Her course and distance record is workable but unremarkable, one win from four runs. A fair thing for minor honours without the standout factor to trouble the two pace-setters at the head of the market.
Key insight: Trap three is by far the best box at this trip and grade, winning better than one in three, and the top-rated dog in this field happens to be drawn there - a rare alignment of the two strongest signals.
Trap 3 dominant at 34%, trap 6 weakest at just 9%
231 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 277m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 277m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (277m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 275m | 277m | 280m | 462m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stormy Neymar | — | 0.600 | — | — |
| 2 | Miss Bossy | — | 0.595 | — | 0.618 |
| 3 | Essex Gunner | 0.627 | 0.596 | 0.582 | — |
| 4 | Dick Turpin | — | 0.597 | — | 0.610 |
| 6 | Bucking Bucks | — | 0.599 | — | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.