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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Westway Buzzb 4y 25 | E G Samuels — 15% R598 W90 P319 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 38 | 89 (1) | 73 (3) | 58 (5) | 74 (3) | 51 (6) | 92 (1) | 89 (1) | 83 (1) | 59 (2) | - | 38 | 26 | 25 | 43 | 75 | 44 | 4 | 8/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Wait For Thisb 1y 16 | S Knights — 20% R144 W29 P78 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 45 | 48 | 50 (5) | 89 (1) | 70 (2) | 85 (1) | 78 (2) | 83 (1) | 66 (2) | - | - | - | 1 | 59 | 6 | 55 | 73 | 41 | 5 | 9/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Kilcash Happyd 2y 17 | K J Cobbold — 26% R203 W53 P132 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 55 | 50 | 76 (2) | 93 (1) | 79 (2) | 88 (1) | 59 (5) | 51 (5) | 73 (1) | 17 (2) | 60 (3) | - | 40 | 41 | 44 | 51 | 72 | 49 | 2 | 5/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Thunder Danced 2y 19 | C R Morris — 27% R302 W82 P201 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 56 | 63 | 56 (4) | 82 (2) | 93 (1) | 82 (2) | 88 (1) | 76 (3) | 91 (1) | 95 (1) | 95 (1) | 83 (2) | 53 | 73 | 62 | 65 | 81 | 59 | 1 | 4/7F | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Kilara Reaperd 3y 16 | I J Barnard — 21% R257 W54 P150 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 51 | 63 (5) | 63 (4) | 94 (1) | 48 (5) | 66 (5) | 75 (2) | 94 (1) | 72 (3) | 70 (3) | 89 (1) | 32 | 40 | 30 | 31 | 71 | 45 | 3 | 7/2 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Westway Buzz | 28.04 | 28.31 | 28.09 | 53 | +0.05 | Won last time | |
| 2 | Wait For This | 27.97 | 28.36 | 28.67 | 45 | +0.70 | Slowest rating | |
| 3 | Kilcash Happy | 28.00 | 28.26 | 28.06 | 55 | +0.06 | Best trap in grade | |
| 4 | Thunder Dance | 27.72 | 28.03 | 28.63 | 56 | +0.91 | Model pick | |
| 5 | Kilara Reaper | 27.80 | 28.25 | 28.45 | 53 | +0.65 | Worst trap in grade |
Yarmouth's 462 metres remains one of the fairest tests in the country -- well-cambered, no trap or pace bias baked into the layout, and only around one in five races here are won by dogs leading throughout, so the long run-in usually decides things. In this A1 grade specifically, trap three has been the strongest draw at over 22%, with trap five the weakest at under 17%, though the spread is modest by UK standards. The ratings hold up well at this level -- the top-rated dog wins better than one in four here, and the fastest dog on the clock wins at almost exactly the same rate, so composite and speed pulling the same direction is a real signal. Thunder Dance, a genuine front runner with the best recent form and by far the strongest course-and-distance record in the field, should dictate matters from the front, with the rest needing her to falter to get competitive.
In excellent recent form, winning three of her last six starts with two more runner-up finishes mixed in -- this is a genuinely progressive dog racing well above the level she was at earlier in the year. Fastest recorded time and highest speed rating in this field, and her course-and-distance record at this exact track and trip is outstanding -- five wins from her last ten runs here, a strike rate way clear of anything else in this race. A natural front runner with the best first-bend rating in the field, she should be doing the donkey work rather than relying on others, and trainer C R Morris has a strong record in these conditions, winning better than one in four. Top of the ratings by a wide margin, with the fastest clock time, the best course-and-distance record and a trainer in form all pointing the same way -- as strong a case as this grade produces.
Solid recent form without matching the selection's strike rate -- placed second last time out and has won twice in her last six starts, generally racing competitively without quite finishing on top of the big field-fillers. Draws in trap three, the best-performing box in this grade at 462 metres, and her course-and-distance record shows three wins from ten runs at this trip, a reasonable return. Trainer K J Cobbold has a decent record in these conditions at just over one in four. An all-round runner without a glaring weakness in her profile, she's the type who could easily pick up the pieces if the pace up front doesn't hold. The most credible danger to the selection on the data -- the best draw in the field and consistent recent placing form.
Won last time out and stepping up in grade off the back of it -- her form has been solid rather than spectacular, with a mix of wins and modest finishes across her last six starts at this track. A committed closer who finishes strongly from off the pace, which suits Yarmouth's long home straight, though her early speed is modest and she needs things to happen in front of her. Course-and-distance form is reasonable without standing out, and trainer E G Samuels' record in these conditions is unremarkable. Respected on the data but has it to do against a field with faster clocks and stronger recent form.
Form has been mixed lately, finishing fourth and fifth in her last two starts after a mid-pack run of results, though a first-placed effort a few runs back shows the underlying ability is there when things click. Drawn in trap five, the weakest-performing box in this grade at 462 metres, which is an added obstacle on a card where the draw does matter at the margins. Slowest recorded time of the leading pack and her course-and-distance record, while extensive, has produced only modest returns. Others have stronger claims tonight on both the data and the draw.
Beaten favourite type on paper with a couple of recent wins in her locker, but her last outing was well below her best, finishing fifth. All-round running style without a standout trait, and while her course-and-distance record has produced wins in the past, her clock times are the slowest of this field by some distance. Trainer S Knights has a modest record in these conditions from a small sample of runs. Hard to make a strong case for her against a field with faster recent form and quicker recorded times.
Key insight: The top-rated dog wins better than one in four races at this level, and when the composite gap to the second-rated dog is 10 points or more -- as it is tonight -- that figure climbs further, historically towards three in ten at this course and distance.
Trap 3 best at 22.4%, trap 5 weakest at 16.5% -- a modest spread across 1,818 runs
1,818 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 462m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Westway Buzz | 41 | 64 | Closer |
2Wait For This | 46 | 51 | All-Rounder |
3Kilcash Happy | 50 | 50 | All-Rounder |
4Thunder Dance | 59 | 46 | Front Runner |
5Kilara Reaper | 54 | 41 | All-Rounder |
Only runs at exactly 462m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.