Jimmy Flaherty Memorial A2/A3 525 Round 1 Heat 2
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Orbsen Fixitb 2y 6 | - | - | 50 | - | 82 (1) | 57 (4) | 55 (4) | 53 (5) | 45 (5) | 79 (1) | 42 (6) | 56 (5) | 47 (5) | 62 (2) | 39 | 12 | - | 27 | 60 | 47 | 3 | 7/2 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Mossie Mayhemd 1y 41 | - | - | - | - | 88 (1) | 66 (1) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 78 | 22 | 6 | 6/4 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Glengar Sofiab 2y 24 | Gerry Holian — 35% R23 W8 P16 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | - | 78 (6) | 70 (2) | 73 (3) | 70 (2) | 75 (3) | 86 (2) | 80 (1) | 61 (1) | 52 (2) | - | 19 | 35 | 6 | 34 | 73 | 37 | 1 | 5/4 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Summerfield Tearb 1y 22 | - | - | 44 | - | 49 (5) | 91 (1) | 50 (3) | 64 (2) | 66 (1) | 49 (4) | - | - | - | - | 3 | 15 | - | 24 | 62 | 40 | 4 | 7/2 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Balure Diamondd 1y 25 | - | - | 48 | - | 85 (1) | 80 (1) | 54 (4) | 73 (2) | 64 (3) | 56 (3) | 44 (4) | 53 (4) | 60 (3) | 56 (3) | 21 | 11 | - | 39 | 67 | 42 | 2 | 6/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Rosshill Diamondd 1y 14 | - | - | - | - | 93 (1) | 66 (1) | 50 (2) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 30 | 30 | - | - | 72 | 52 | 5 | 3/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Summerfield Tear | 29.01 | 29.44 | 29.21 | 44 | +0.20 | ||
| 3 | Glengar Sofia | 29.05 | 29.33 | 29.11 | 52 | +0.06 | Model pick | |
| 1 | Orbsen Fixit | 29.06 | 29.74 | 29.26 | 50 | +0.20 | Best box | |
| 5 | Balure Diamond | 29.20 | 29.61 | 29.40 | 48 | +0.20 | Won 2 of last 3 | |
| 2 | Mossie Mayhem | — | — | 28.97 | — | — | 2 career runs | |
| 6 | Rosshill Diamond | — | — | 29.12 | — | — | 3 career runs |
Trap 1 is the box to own at Galway's 525 metres — better than one win in three at this grade, with trap 5 a graveyard at barely one in twenty — and the fastest dog on the clock wins better than one in four at the trip. Tonight, though, the draw and the form point in different directions. Orbsen Fixit gets the golden box but brings mid-grade form; Glengar Sofia, the fastest and most proven at this level, breaks from the middle in trap 3. The two novices frame the race: Mossie Mayhem in trap 2 owns the fastest recent raw time in the field and Rosshill Diamond in trap 6 won here impressively last week, but both are short on experience. Expect Sofia to be doing her best work when the two-race dogs are learning on the job.
The fastest in the field on speed figures and the most proven at this level — she has already run second and third in A2 company here, part of a course record of eight runs with two wins and five top-two finishes. Her rating has not dropped below 70 in six starts, and trainer Gerry Holian is winning at a terrific strike rate approaching four in ten. Last time's sixth is at odds with everything around it and worth forgiving. She sets the standard.
Two races, two wins, including a 28.97 clocking over this trip at Tralee that is the fastest raw time anyone in this field has posted recently. That is serious ability, but a two-race career is a thin book, she has never raced at Galway, and this is A2 company straight away. Brilliant if it all translates — far from proven that it will.
Gets the golden draw in trap 1, the box that wins better than one in three at this grade, and won well at A5 grade last time in 29.26. The worry is the level — nearly all his form is mid-grade, and before that win he was well held in a string of A5 races. The draw gives him a squeak; the form says he needs a fair bit more.
Won at this trip here two starts back with a 91-rated career best, so on his day he is up to this. The rest of the book is patchy — fifth at A3 grade last time and ratings bouncing between the 40s and 60s — and trap 4 has been a poor box at the grade, winning barely one race in nine. Needs his very best.
Won two of his last three, climbing from A5 to A4 grade with improving ratings of 80 and 85, and his course record of seven runs and two wins is respectable. The trajectory is right but the draw is wrong — trap 5 has won barely one race in twenty at this grade — and this is another step up in class on top of it.
Won a sprint here impressively last week in a sharp 19.18 and has already won over this trip at Limerick in 29.12 — but that is a three-race career and none of it has come against A2 company. The talent is obvious and the wide draw keeps him out of trouble; the evidence that he stays the trip strongly at this level is thin.
Key insight: Trap 1 is the dominant box at Galway 525m A2, winning 34.3% from 35 runs, while trap 5 wins just 5.7% and trap 4 only 11.1%. The grade sample is thin (~35 runs per trap) so treat as a lean, but the all-grade picture from 3,103 runs confirms the shape: trap 1 best (21.4%), trap 5 worst (11.6%), and the fastest dog in the field wins 27.5% across all grades.
T1:34.3% T2:19.4% T3:17.1% T4:11.1% T5:5.7% T6:14.7%
211 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 525m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 525m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (525m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 325m | 350m | 525m | 575m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Orbsen Fixit | — | — | 0.566 | 0.561 |
| 2 | Mossie Mayhem | 0.542 | — | 0.556 | — |
| 3 | Glengar Sofia | — | 0.562 | 0.557 | — |
| 4 | Summerfield Tear | — | 0.558 | 0.561 | — |
| 5 | Balure Diamond | — | 0.559 | 0.564 | 0.562 |
| 6 | Rosshill Diamond | — | 0.545 | 0.558 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.