Jimmy Flaherty Memorial A2/A3 525 Round 1 Heat 6
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Island Bobbyd 3y 34 | - | - | 41 | - | 74 (4) | 61 (5) | 56 (4) | 82 (5) | 96 (2) | 56 (1) | 79 (6) | 93 (2) | 91 (1) | - | 13 | 43 | 44 | 46 | 73 | 42 | 4 | 3/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Ticking Boxesd 1y 24 | - | - | 54 | - | 84 (1) | 59 (3) | 45 (5) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 27 | 65 | 37 | 5 | 2/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Banter Bonnieb 2y 25 | - | - | 35 | - | 78 (2) | 45 (6) | 15 (6) | 27 (5) | 46 (6) | 55 (4) | 61 (3) | 80 (1) | 61 (4) | 70 (3) | 1 | 18 | - | 21 | 61 | 32 | 6 | 11/2 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Magical Graysond 1y 32 | Patrick Guilfoyle — 46% R52 W24 P36 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | - | 71 (2) | 78 (3) | 59 (5) | 70 (2) | 86 (1) | 59 (5) | 66 (1) | - | - | - | 28 | 25 | - | 24 | 70 | 45 | 2 | 6/4 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Portumna Sydd 2y 25 | John Sloyan — 10% R10 W1 P7 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 60 | - | 59 (5) | 83 (3) | 78 (2) | 79 (2) | 74 (2) | 65 (3) | 89 (1) | 79 (2) | 75 (2) | 73 (2) | 26 | 46 | - | 45 | 74 | 56 | 1 | 5/2 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Breaghmore Tillyb 2y 14 | - | - | 50 | - | 68 (5) | 85 (3) | 76 (3) | 82 (1) | 75 (2) | 60 (5) | 74 (3) | 48 (5) | 58 (2) | 58 (5) | 34 | 35 | - | 25 | 72 | 49 | 3 | 3/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Portumna Syd | 28.89 | 29.11 | 29.24 | 60 | +0.35 | Fastest in field | |
| 1 | Island Bobby | 28.94 | 29.31 | 28.96 | 41 | +0.02 | Model pick | |
| 2 | Ticking Boxes | 28.95 | 29.35 | 29.35 | 54 | +0.40 | 3 career runs | |
| 4 | Magical Grayson | 28.97 | 29.14 | 28.97 | 52 | 0.00 | Hot kennel | |
| 6 | Breaghmore Tilly | 29.01 | 29.36 | 28.84 | 50 | -0.17 | 0 wins in 8 here | |
| 3 | Banter Bonnie | 29.47 | 29.49 | — | 35 | — |
The nightcap, and the track template matters one last time: trap 1 wins better than one in three at this grade at Galway's 525 metres, trap 5 barely one in twenty, and the fastest dog takes more than one in four. Island Bobby owns the best winning record at this course and distance in the field — three from six — and drops in class off a summer at A0 and A1 level, now with the red jacket to help. Against him, Portumna Syd is clearly the fastest and highest-rated but has drawn the graveyard box and keeps finding one too good, with one win from nine course starts. Magical Grayson brings the red-hot Guilfoyle kennel and fresh A1 form into a poor draw. The shape favours Bobby controlling the rail while Syd runs on into another placing — but Grayson is the one who could spoil the script.
Three wins from six starts at this course and distance — the best strike rate in the field — and he lands trap 1, the box that wins better than one in three at this grade. He has spent the summer campaigning at A0 and A1 level, so this is a genuine drop in class, and his 28.96 course best is among the quickest here. The speed figures rank him modestly on recent runs, but winning know-how at these exact conditions plus the track's biggest structural edge is a potent combination.
The clear fastest in the field on speed figures and the highest-rated on average — and he has placed in seven of nine course and distance starts, a remarkable consistency record. But he has won just once here, and trap 5 has been near-impossible at this grade, winning barely one race in twenty. Everything about the profile — one win, seven placings, dead box — points to another honourable near-miss.
Won at A5 grade at Thurles last time, rated 84, but that is a three-race career and this is a jump of three grades in one go on a track he has never raced. The second-best speed figures in the field say the engine is real; the evidence that it fires against this calibre simply is not there yet.
Second at A3 grade at Limerick last time was a marked improvement, but the rest of her recent record is bleak — ratings of 15 and 27 in the spring and a string of well-beaten runs across three tracks. Both her Galway starts ended out of the first two, and her speed figures sit near the bottom of the field.
From the red-hot Patrick Guilfoyle kennel, winning at nearly one in two, and he ran second at A1 grade over 550 metres here just last week — strong credentials dropping to A2 tonight. The catch is the draw: trap 4 has been one of the weakest boxes at this grade, winning barely one race in nine. If he breaks level he is arguably the class act of the race, and he is the most obvious spoiler to the selection.
Consistent at A1 and A2 level with ratings in the 70s and 80s, and a 28.84 Shelbourne clocking that shows what she can do elsewhere. But her Galway record is the worry — eight course and distance starts without a win and only one second. She keeps finding one or two too good here, and the wide box does not help her cause at this trip.
Key insight: Trap 1 is the dominant box at Galway 525m A2, winning 34.3% from 35 runs, while trap 5 wins just 5.7% and trap 4 only 11.1%. The grade sample is thin (~35 runs per trap) so treat as a lean, but the all-grade picture from 3,103 runs confirms the shape: trap 1 best (21.4%), trap 5 worst (11.6%), and the fastest dog in the field wins 27.5% across all grades.
T1:34.3% T2:19.4% T3:17.1% T4:11.1% T5:5.7% T6:14.7%
211 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 525m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 525m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (525m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 350m | 525m | 550m | 575m | 750m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Island Bobby | — | 0.556 | 0.561 | — | — |
| 2 | Ticking Boxes | — | 0.562 | — | — | — |
| 3 | Banter Bonnie | — | 0.557 | 0.558 | 0.562 | 0.577 |
| 4 | Magical Grayson | 0.559 | 0.554 | 0.557 | — | — |
| 5 | Portumna Syd | — | 0.555 | 0.564 | — | — |
| 6 | Breaghmore Tilly | — | 0.559 | — | — | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.