Homing Dogs With Home Run Hounds Stakes
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Kelva Brieb 4yREP 14 | J Daly — 20% R184 W37 P98 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 62 | - | 26 (3) | 26 (4) | 27 (4) | 31 (2) | 25 (4) | 21 (6) | 27 (5) | 26 (4) | 33 (2) | 30 (2) | 17 | 29 | 19 | 17 | 27 | 27 | 1 | 10/3 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Invincia Jewelb 4yREP 13 | J Daly — 20% R184 W37 P98 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | - | 22 (4) | 26 (3) | 21 (3) | 20 (4) | 29 (2) | 26 (2) | 26 (3) | 20 (4) | 51 (4) | 52 (5) | 21 | 22 | 13 | 11 | 26 | 25 | 4 | 20/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Artic Blueb 4yREP 46 | S W Deakin — 15% R507 W78 P241 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | - | 16 (6) | 51 (3) | 62 (2) | 59 (1) | 57 (2) | 29 (1) | 60 (3) | 34 (5) | 20 (5) | 42 (4) | 21 | 19 | - | 17 | 40 | 19 | 3 | 16/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Sonic Reindeerd 2yREP 7 | L Cook — 22% R122 W27 P74 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | - | 21 (5) | 25 (2) | 31 (2) | 31 (1) | 22 (3) | 18 (6) | 19 (6) | 24 (3) | 25 (2) | 19 (5) | 41 | 28 | 17 | 31 | 24 | 27 | 5 | 2/1JF | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Jaymir Tarab 4yREP 24 | J Daly — 20% R184 W37 P98 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 44 | - | 25 (4) | 68 (2) | 60 (1) | 43 (2) | 57 (5) | 58 (3) | 59 (4) | 60 (2) | - | - | 35 | 39 | - | - | 46 | 41 | 6 | 11/4 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Round The Bendb 2y 5 | J Llewellin — 15% R372 W56 P209 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 58 | - | 29 (2) | 30 (2) | 25 (4) | 24 (4) | 24 (5) | 31 (1) | 28 (2) | 27 (2) | 25 (2) | 31 (1) | 32 | 36 | 33 | 38 | 27 | 30 | 2 | 2/1JF | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Bull Run Bird | 29.79 | 30.36 | 30.23 | 58 | +0.44 | Speed leader | |
| 1 | Honour Vacation | 29.89 | 30.59 | 30.35 | 49 | +0.46 | Sharpest away | |
| 4 | Ballymac Coko | 29.97 | 30.48 | 30.66 | 45 | +0.69 | Fast trial 30.09 | |
| 5 | Leelad | 30.42 | 30.53 | 30.17 | 45 | -0.25 | 305m last out | |
| 2 | Scary Sanctions | 30.58 | 30.58 | 30.38 | 40 | -0.20 | 2 career races |
Nottingham's 500 metres has a long run to the first bend but the turn itself is tight and systematically punishes wide runners — the inside three boxes account for the bulk of winners here. At A2 grade specifically, trap 2 has been the best box, winning almost 22% from 285 runs, while trap 4 is the graveyard at just over 14%. Trap 6 is empty tonight, so the five runners get a cleaner run than usual. Honour Vacation is the sharpest away in the field and should power to the bend from the rail, with the lightly-raced Scary Sanctions also quick enough to go with him from trap 2. Bull Run Bird will be behind that pair early — he tends to be outpaced from the boxes and relies on a strong late run, which is workable from an inside draw at this trip. If the two leaders take each other on through the first two bends, the race sets up for something coming late.
The fastest dog in the field on the clock — his 29.79 best here is the quickest in the race, he has the top speed rating, and he ran third in this grade just four days ago, so the form is the freshest on show. All ten of his recent races have come at this course and distance, with two wins and five placings, so he knows every inch of the trip. The concern is that he's slow into stride and does his best work late — but from trap 3, saving ground on the inside, that running style wins here far more often than it does from the wide boxes. If the two early-pace dogs on his inside take each other on, he's the one picking up the pieces.
Just two career races — second in open company last time out and a winner over this course and distance before that — so one run doesn't make her a proven quantity, but the ability is obvious. Her recent trials here have been electric, including a 30.14 win that ranks among the fastest of the week, and she's drawn in trap 2, statistically the best box at this grade and trip. Very hard to weigh up on such limited racing, but if she breaks level she could be anything. The clear danger.
The sharpest away in the field and handles the first bend as well as anything here — he'll almost certainly lead them into the turn from the rail. Placed in seven of his ten course and distance runs, including second last time out, so he's knocking on the door. The worry is that he shows brilliant early pace but can weaken in the closing stages, and at 500 metres there's plenty of time to be caught. Established at this grade with form figures rarely dipping below the low 70s.
Dropping in from A1, the top grade, where his recent runs have been modest — but his peaks at that level (95 and 92 within his last six) are far beyond anything else in this field, and he owns four wins from nine at this course and distance. He also won a scorching 30.09 trial here at the end of June, the fastest recent workout by any dog in this race. The catch: trap 4 is the worst box at this grade, winning just 14.4%, and his last four open runs have all been below his best. Latent class, awkward draw.
Arrives in career-best form — rated 85 when second in open company over the 305-metre sprint last time, and an A3 winner the run before. The question is the trip: tonight is back up to 500 metres, where his record here is one win from four and his best time of 30.42 is the slowest in the field. He tends to be outpaced early and stays on late, which from trap 5 means giving the inside dogs first run at the bend. In form, but plenty to prove at this distance against this company.
Key insight: Trap 2 is the standout box at A2 over 500m (21.8% from 285 runs) with trap 4 the one to avoid (14.4%). The fastest dog on ratings wins 20.4% and the top-rated dog 21.8% — a fairly open grade where no single number dominates.
T1:16.6% T2:21.8% T3:20.2% T4:14.4% T5:19.8% T6:15.0%
1,489 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 305m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Only runs at exactly 305m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (305m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 305m | 500m | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kelva Brie | 0.608 | — |
| 2 | Invincia Jewel | 0.616 | 0.632 |
| 3 | Artic Blue | 0.617 | 0.635 |
| 4 | Sonic Reindeer | 0.617 | — |
| 5 | Jaymir Tara | 0.619 | 0.622 |
| 6 | Round The Bend | 0.613 | — |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.