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Omega Stormwater Stakes
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Swift Oliviab 4yREP 25 | M T Munslow — 22% R131 W29 P81 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 52 | 60 (3) | 73 (1) | 69 (2) | 54 (4) | 63 (2) | 61 (3) | 54 (2) | 65 (3) | 27 (3) | - | 31 | 30 | 31 | 37 | 63 | 48 | 5 | 6/1 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Elite Maxd 2yREP 45 | J Llewellin — 15% R372 W56 P209 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 34 | 39 | 76 (1) | 28 (4) | 46 (3) | 27 (4) | 71 (1) | 33 (2) | 23 (5) | 31 (2) | 39 (4) | 66 (3) | 41 | 32 | 24 | 40 | 61 | 17 | 6 | 7/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Ayup Chewieb 2yREP 17 | B Denby — 23% R256 W58 P140 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 42 | 49 | 54 (3) | 31 (6) | 51 (4) | 58 (3) | 52 (4) | 45 (3) | 75 (4) | 56 (1) | 60 (2) | - | 41 | 29 | - | 18 | 51 | 40 | 4 | 4/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Pipkinb 3yREP 13 | J Llewellin — 15% R372 W56 P209 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 54 | 53 | 62 (3) | 50 (5) | 45 (4) | 68 (2) | 33 (2) | 47 (5) | 44 (5) | 46 (5) | 70 (2) | 64 (2) | 20 | 26 | 10 | 18 | 55 | 43 | 1 | 9/4 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Worra Babed 2yREP 6 | J Gray — 21% R203 W42 P128 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 54 | 44 | 64 (3) | 77 (1) | 76 (1) | 68 (2) | 56 (5) | 63 (6) | 58 (6) | 45 (2) | - | - | 31 | 42 | 34 | 35 | 66 | 53 | 3 | 15/8F | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Lavender Blueb 3y 27 | S W Deakin — 15% R507 W78 P241 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 56 | 51 | 72 (1) | 56 (4) | 72 (2) | 61 (3) | 59 (3) | 51 (6) | 54 (5) | 59 (5) | 49 (5) | 74 (3) | 25 | 21 | 15 | 25 | 62 | 47 | 2 | 6/1 | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Honour Neez | 30.54 | 31.13 | 30.89 | 55 | +0.35 | Speed leader | |
| 3 | Sas Opa | 31.05 | 31.18 | 30.81 | 50 | -0.24 | Won last time | |
| 1 | Swift Ursula | 30.62 | 31.20 | 31.04 | 50 | +0.42 | Best trap | |
| 4 | Honour Fifi | 31.06 | 31.53 | 30.95 | 40 | -0.11 | Won last time | |
| 2 | Timesarechanging | First open race — trials only, so no comparable race times. | — | Debutant | ||||
Nottingham's 500 metres punishes wide runners at a tight first bend, and at A5 the rail is the place to be — trap 1 wins 21.8% from 340 runs while trap 6 (empty tonight) is the dead box. This is also a grade where raw pace matters more than ratings here: the fastest dog in the field wins 25% at this course, distance and grade, clearly ahead of the top-rated dog at 20%. Honour Neez has the best early pace and first-bend figures in the race and should be the one taking them along from trap 5, though she can weaken late. Swift Ursula breaks well enough from the rail to sit handy, while Sas Opa and Honour Fifi — winners of their last races — are the ones staying on as the leader comes back to the pack. The debutant Timesarechanging in trap 2 is the wild card nobody can weigh up.
The fastest dog in the race on every measure that matters at this grade — quickest best time (30.54), quickest average, top speed rating, and the sharpest early pace and first-bend figures in the field. At Nottingham A5 over 500 metres the fastest dog wins one in four, well clear of anything else the numbers offer. Her last two runs look poor on paper, but the latest was over the 305-metre sprint — the wrong trip entirely — and three runs back she posted a 71 over this course and distance, the best recent figure in this field. She should lead them a long way; the question is whether she lasts home, as she can weaken late.
Improving with every start — his three career races read 48, 57, 68, capped by a win at A6 grade over this course and distance a fortnight ago in 30.81, the fastest last-time-out figure in this field. He's slow into stride and does his damage late, which is exactly the profile to profit if the leader empties in the closing stages. Three races is a thin sample and this is a step up in grade, but the trajectory is unmistakable. Main danger.
Drawn in the best box at this grade and trip — the rail wins nearly 22% here — and she's as consistent as they come, placing in six of her ten course and distance runs. The trouble is converting: just two wins in that spell, and her last run was a third at this level after a good second the time before. She breaks well enough to sit handy off the leader and will be in the mix at the business end, but she usually finds one or two too strong at the finish.
Makes his racecourse debut with nothing but trials to judge him on — and they're a mixed bag: a fast solo over the sprint trip in June, then two steadier 500-metre workouts including a crowded second on 8 July. Debutants are impossible to assess with confidence; they often run green in a pack, drifting about and finding trouble no trial can predict. The market is the best guide — if he's strong in the betting, connections fancy him. Watch rather than bet territory.
Won well at A6 grade last week — rated 66, her second-best figure of the year — and her kennel actually goes well at this exact grade and trip despite a quiet season overall. But her form is wildly up and down: that 66 sits alongside runs of 30, 39 and 45 in her last six, and she's stepping up a grade off the back of the win. Three wins from ten course and distance runs shows she can get it done here when things fall right. Dangerous if she repeats the last run, easy to oppose if she doesn't.
Key insight: Speed is king at this combo: the fastest dog wins 25.0% (576 runs) while the top-rated dog manages only 20.4% — one of the clearer speed-first grades on the card. Trap 1 best at 21.8%, trap 6 worst at 13.6%.
T1:21.8% T2:19.5% T3:18.9% T4:20.6% T5:20.1% T6:13.6%
1,708 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 500m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Swift Olivia | 53 | 49 | All-Rounder |
2Elite Max | 42 | 51 | All-Rounder |
3Ayup Chewie | 49 | 34 | All-Rounder |
4Pipkin | 78 | 0 | Fader |
5Worra Babe | 43 | 64 | Closer |
6Lavender Blue | 51 | 55 | Closer |
Only runs at exactly 500m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (500m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 305m | 480m | 500m | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swift Olivia | 0.609 | — | 0.617 |
| 2 | Elite Max | 0.606 | — | 0.625 |
| 3 | Ayup Chewie | — | — | 0.623 |
| 4 | Pipkin | 0.597 | 0.619 | 0.618 |
| 5 | Worra Babe | — | — | 0.617 |
| 6 | Lavender Blue | — | — | 0.615 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.