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Watch PGR @ greyhounds.attheraces.com Stakes
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Jager Brend 3y 6 | K Wilton — 25% R203 W51 P116 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 44 | 36 | 51 (5) | 74 (1) | 54 (3) | 57 (2) | 47 (6) | 35 (6) | 38 (6) | 58 (3) | 52 (5) | 60 (4) | 32 | 33 | 31 | 27 | 54 | 43 | 4 | 15/8 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Tetra Revenged 3yREP 38 | B Denby — 23% R256 W58 P140 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 32 | 52 | 30 (6) | 61 (4) | 16 (3) | 58 (3) | 62 (3) | 58 (2) | 45 (4) | 48 (4) | 50 (5) | 78 (1) | 3 | 17 | 23 | 10 | 47 | 10 | 5 | 5/1 | - | |
| 3 | ▶ Darbys Kingd 2yREP 27 | J Daly — 20% R184 W37 P98 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | 53 | 42 (6) | 45 (6) | 71 (2) | 46 (5) | 51 (4) | 74 (1) | 64 (2) | 61 (3) | 67 (2) | 49 (4) | 25 | 22 | 14 | 22 | 55 | 27 | 2 | 10/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Honour Bellied 4yREP 14 | A S Mcpherson — 12% R290 W35 P121 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 46 | 53 (4) | 47 (5) | 53 (5) | 76 (1) | 61 (3) | 61 (3) | 48 (5) | 59 (3) | 80 (1) | 68 (2) | 25 | 20 | 25 | 17 | 58 | 46 | 3 | 3/1 | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Thurlesbeg Tontod 2yREP 7 | J Gray — 21% R203 W42 P128 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 59 | 56 | 67 (2) | 48 (4) | 73 (1) | 47 (4) | 53 (3) | 57 (2) | 65 (2) | 68 (2) | 41 (6) | 46 (5) | 31 | 32 | 13 | 32 | 58 | 52 | 1 | 13/8F | - | |
AI previews are produced independently of the model projection and may select a different pick.
| Trap | Dog | Best | Avg | Last | Speed | Off best | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Thurlesbeg Tonto | 30.22 | 30.91 | 30.33 | 59 | +0.11 | Speed leader | |
| 3 | Darbys King | 30.24 | 31.00 | 30.76 | 50 | +0.52 | 10-week layoff | |
| 5 | Honour Bellie | 30.35 | 30.95 | 30.73 | 51 | +0.38 | Consistent | |
| 1 | Jager Bren | 30.73 | 31.08 | 30.57 | 44 | -0.16 | Trainer 30% | |
| 2 | Tetra Revenge | 30.62 | 31.14 | 31.28 | 32 | +0.66 | 4-month layoff |
Nottingham's 500 metres has a long run to the first bend but the turn is tight and systematically punishes wide runners — inside boxes take the lion's share of races here, and at A4 specifically trap 3 leads the way at 20.3% while trap 6 is the weakest at 14.8%. Trap 4 is empty tonight, which gives the field more room through the turn than usual. The shape is unusual: the two fastest dogs on the clock are drawn three and six, but Darbys King in three is having his first open race for ten weeks, while Thurlesbeg Tonto in six — who sweeps every column of the speed table — has to survive the worst statistical box on the card. Jager Bren is slow away and relies on a strong late run from the rail; Honour Bellie is similar from five. With little genuine early dash in the race, whoever pings the lids could control this from the front.
Sweeps every column of the speed table — fastest best time (30.22), fastest average, fastest last time out (30.33) and the top speed rating in the field — and unlike the other quick dogs in this race, his form is current: a 67-rated second here eleven days ago. He's placed in five of his ten course and distance runs and has been climbing steadily from A5 grade. The one genuine problem is the draw: trap 6 is the worst box at this grade and trip, winning under 15%, on a track that punishes wide runners at the first bend. He's versatile enough to race prominently, and with no fierce early pace inside him he may get the clean first turn he needs — but that bend is the whole race for him.
The rail is prime real estate at Nottingham 500 metres and he's the dog best placed to use it. He hit 74 two runs back — second-best recent figure in the field — and trainer K Wilton is striking at 30%, the hottest kennel on the card. He's slow into stride and relies on a strong late run, but from trap 1, saving ground every yard, that style wins plenty of these. His 30.57 last time out was sharp even in defeat. Only one win from ten at this course and distance is the nagging doubt — he tends to find one too good.
The most consistent runner in the race — ten course and distance runs, two wins, three placings, and she's raced at this level or higher all year, including a 76 four runs back that stands up well against anything here. She's another who does her best work late, and trap 5 is a fair slot at this grade, winning just under 20%. Her recent figures (53, 47, 53) are steady rather than progressive, and she'll need a career-typical peak rather than a career-best to trouble the two class dogs. Solid each-way profile.
On paper he ticks huge boxes: a 30.24 career best that's within two spots of the fastest in the field, the best box at this grade and trip (trap 3, 20.3%), and a 71-rated run earlier this spring. But he hasn't had an open race since the start of May — a ten-week absence — and his comeback trial here on 8 July was a steady solo in 31.08, ticking over rather than sizzling. Fit and firing, he might win this; the evidence he's fit and firing is thin. The market will know more than the form book does.
The biggest unknown in the race — he hasn't run in open company since early March, a four-month absence, and his form before the break was patchy, ending with a 30 when sixth at this grade. The encouragement comes from his comeback trials: a fast 18.24 sprint win on 1 July and a solid solo 30.89 over tonight's trip a week later, both suggesting the engine has been rebuilt. One win from ten at this course and distance historically. Fresh and well-trialled he could outrun big odds, but four months off is a lot to give away against race-fit rivals.
Key insight: The fastest dog wins 22.7% at A4 over 500m (587 runs), ahead of the top-rated at 20.0%. Trap 3 is the best box at 20.3%; trap 6 the worst at 14.8% — the wide draw is a genuine structural handicap at this trip.
T1:18.5% T2:16.6% T3:20.3% T4:16.7% T5:19.9% T6:14.8%
1,817 condition runs
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 500m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Jager Bren | 33 | 82 | Closer |
2Tetra Revenge | 50 | 37 | All-Rounder |
3Darbys King | 53 | 36 | All-Rounder |
5Honour Bellie | 42 | 62 | Closer |
6Thurlesbeg Tonto | 51 | 50 | All-Rounder |
Only runs at exactly 500m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.