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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Scooby Gdyniad 3y 5 | K J Crocker — 16% R144 W23 P78 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 58 | 50 | 43 (4) | 46 (3) | 39 (2) | 27 (5) | 55 (5) | 42 (1) | 25 (2) | 24 (5) | 29 (6) | - | 30 | 22 | 28 | 22 | 33 | 30 | 4 | 13/8JF | |
| 2 | ▶ Guinness Ladd 2y 16 | A Welch — 15% R313 W47 P159 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 48 | 48 | 36 (5) | 36 (3) | 34 (5) | 35 (3) | 32 (5) | 40 (4) | 46 (2) | 37 (3) | 26 (6) | 38 (3) | 35 | 5 | 5 | 14 | 36 | 30 | 3 | 6/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Purmac Timmyd 4y 26 | N J Deas — 17% R449 W76 P247 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 36 | 42 | 14 (6) | 13 (6) | 28 (6) | 25 (6) | 30 (6) | 21 (6) | 16 (5) | 18 (5) | 39 (5) | 32 (5) | 25 | 8 | 24 | - | 25 | 22 | 6 | 22/1 | |
| 4 | ▶ Ardera Ellab 3y 18 | K J Crocker — 16% R144 W23 P78 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 56 | 62 | 30 (5) | 30 (4) | 40 (4) | 34 (4) | 45 (2) | 36 (4) | 32 (5) | 28 (5) | 43 (3) | 35 (5) | 40 | 11 | 6 | 11 | 36 | 31 | 1 | 4/1 | |
| 5 | ▶ Rowington Rused 2y 16 | D D Porter — 17% R522 W90 P286 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | 41 | 29 (6) | 28 (6) | 41 (5) | 37 (3) | 53 (1) | 36 (4) | 39 (3) | 32 (4) | 39 (4) | 40 (4) | 23 | 15 | 16 | 21 | 35 | 30 | 5 | 7/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Swift Chased 3y 35 | N J Deas — 17% R449 W76 P247 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 54 | 72 | 23 (5) | 55 (1) | 47 (2) | 32 (5) | 26 (2) | 26 (3) | 24 (3) | 21 (5) | 27 (3) | 23 (3) | 43 | 29 | - | 31 | 26 | 29 | 2 | 13/8JF | |
Ardera Ella enters this race as the marginal class horse in an otherwise evenly-matched A8 field, posting the highest composite score (31) and joint-fastest bestTime of 30.56 seconds alongside Scooby Gdynia. Her firstBendRating of 62 — highest among the sustained-galloping types — ensures she will secure a prime early position from T4, tracking Swift Chase's blazing early pace without overcommitting. The All-Rounder profile is ideal at 500m, allowing her to travel comfortably mid-race before producing a decisive late effort. Her most recent run produced a performance figure of P45, a career-best trajectory marker, confirming she is at or near her peak. With suitTrap of 40 (highest in field) indicating genuine affinity for T4 and an improving six-run arc (P35→P37→P33→P29→P44→P45 newest-to-oldest), Ardera Ella has the credentials to convert consistent placed form into a first victory at this level.
Scooby Gdynia cannot be dismissed in this race for several compelling reasons. Her raw speedRating of 58 is the highest in the entire field, and her bestTime of 30.56 matches Ardera Ella's joint-fastest benchmark — suggesting latent ability that her modest composite of 30 may understate. The critical factor is Towcester's well-documented T1 structural bias: the inside trap produces winners at approximately double the expected rate over 500m, giving Scooby Gdynia a mechanical edge that no ratings model fully captures. As a Closer, she will settle behind the early pace, benefit from cover, and launch her challenge in the home straight where her superior speed rating can tell. Her most recent run (pos 2, P42 performance figure) represents her best recent showing and confirms she is racing in form.
Swift Chase is the most explosive early-pace runner in this field, boasting an earlyPace of 83 and firstBendRating of 72 that will see her clear of rivals before the first bend. Her winning T1 trial run on 22 March confirms she can dominate when conditions suit her early-pace style. The concern is the 500m distance — her pronounced Fader profile means she will struggle to sustain the effort, and her bestTime of 30.80 is notably slower than the two principals. A likely pace-setter who leads early before fading from the 250m mark.
Guinness Lad shows a reliable All-Rounder profile and has placed consistently at A8, including a pos 2 finish four runs back. However, his suitTrack rating of just 5 and suitDist of 14 flag very limited proven form at Towcester over 500m, and his speedRating of 48 is one of the weaker marks in this field. He may find a place rather than the win.
Rowington Ruse has posted four consecutive fourth-place finishes, which speaks to a reliable but uninspiring running style that lacks the acceleration to trouble the principals. Her speedRating of 46 and firstBendRating of 41 are both in the lower half of this field, and there is no recent evidence of a step forward in ability. Likely to finish mid-pack again.
Purmac Timmy is a 270m specialist stepping up to 500m — her suitDist of 0 underlines that she has no proven form over this trip, and the raw ratings confirm it: composite 22 and speedRating 36 are the lowest in the race. Her recent A8 500m outing produced a last-place finish (pos 6, P21). She is very likely to finish tail-end in this company.
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 500m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Scooby Gdynia | 48 | 59 | Closer |
2Guinness Lad | 44 | 54 | All-Rounder |
3Purmac Timmy | 58 | 90 | All-Rounder |
4Ardera Ella | 52 | 24 | All-Rounder |
5Rowington Ruse | 46 | 46 | All-Rounder |
6Swift Chase | 83 | 0 | Fader |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.