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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Class | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Rating | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Sapphire Wolfb 2y 25 | A Ioannou — 13% R90 W12 P52 Trainer form — last 3 months | 52 | 51 | 47 (2) | 22 (4) | 52 (2) | 45 (3) | 45 (2) | 33 (6) | 30 (5) | 36 (4) | 39 (4) | 52 (2) | 28 | 35 | 15 | 17 | 39 | 35 | 2 | 11/8F | ||
| 2 | ▶ Grayroy Duked 3y 6 | K J Crocker — 15% R143 W22 P77 Trainer form — last 3 months | 38 | 23 | 19 (4) | 26 (2) | 24 (3) | 23 (3) | 27 (1) | 25 (2) | 23 (3) | 16 (5) | 21 (2) | - | 77 | 10 | 14 | 10 | 20 | 24 | 5 | 22/1 | ||
| 3 | ▶ Makeit Joyb 3y 4 | V A Lea — 15% R187 W28 P75 Trainer form — last 3 months | 52 | - | 16 (6) | 17 (6) | 18 (4) | 22 (5) | 14 (6) | 31 (1) | 17 (6) | 18 (6) | 21 (4) | 31 (1) | 38 | 29 | 35 | 25 | 22 | 25 | 6 | 3/1 | ||
| 4 | ▶ Choices Miled 1y 16 | J M Liles — 19% R429 W82 P226 Trainer form — last 3 months | 50 | 100 | 35 (5) | 34 (5) | 58 (1) | 37 (4) | 54 (1) | 41 (2) | 19 (4) | 29 (1) | 18 (5) | 23 (4) | 14 | 31 | 25 | 33 | 21 | 23 | 1 | 5/2 | ||
| 5 | ▶ Crucial Dutchd 5y 26 | D Jeans — 12% R234 W29 P103 Trainer form — last 3 months | 49 | 18 | 19 (3) | 24 (2) | 21 (5) | 18 (5) | 29 (1) | 25 (2) | 24 (3) | 21 (4) | 24 (2) | 17 (4) | 25 | 23 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 24 | 4 | 10/1 | ||
| 6 | ▶ Carlow Townd 4y 39 | A Welch — 15% R296 W44 P151 Trainer form — last 3 months | 53 | 57 | 62 (1) | 53 (2) | 56 (1) | 25 (3) | 24 (3) | 28 (1) | 23 (3) | 26 (6) | 24 (5) | 40 (4) | 19 | 33 | - | 14 | 33 | 29 | 3 | 9/2 | ||
Choices Mile stands out in this D5 270m sprint by virtue of two data points that are essentially unbeatable for this trip: a firstBend rating of 100 and an earlyPace rating of 100 — both at the absolute maximum of the scale, indicating she is the fastest-breaking dog in this field by a significant margin. In a 270m race that is decided before the halfway point, the ability to lead from the traps is the single most consequential attribute, and no other runner here comes close to matching these gate-speed figures. She won D5 270m on 11 March (P29, 1st) and her bestTime of 16.51 is competitive in this company despite the modest composite score of 23. The low composite reflects a modest overall ability ceiling but that is largely irrelevant in a format where the leader rarely gets caught. From T4 she will cross immediately and establish the rail position. Her last run was a trial (P10) rather than a competitive race, but the gate-speed profile is a physical characteristic that does not diminish between runs. In a D5 sprint field of largely uniform mediocrity, the dog who can be first to the bend wins this type of race with striking regularity.
Sapphire Wolf holds the best composite score (35) and highest avgPerf (39) in this field — a relatively comfortable margin in a race of limited overall quality — and drops from A8 500m company where she has been finishing 2nd and 3rd (P45, P45). The class drop to D5 270m gives her a significant ability advantage on paper. From T1 she benefits from the inside draw at a track where early position is rewarded, and firstBend 51 is workmanlike. The Closer profile (earlyPace 38) is not ideal for a 270m sprint, but the T1 draw partially compensates. If Choices Mile is unable to maintain her gate-speed advantage after a period of trial racing, Sapphire Wolf has the class credentials to take the spoils.
Carlow Town won A8 500m on 13 March (P55, 1st) and drops to D5 270m — a class relief. FirstBend 57 and earlyPace 50 give her early pace options. However, T6 at 270m is a structural disadvantage. Her recent form (4th, 5th at A8) suggests regression. A place candidate at best.
Makeit Joy drops from D4 where she has been struggling badly. The class drop to D5 is warranted but her form is in freefall. No firstBend data available makes her pace profile opaque. Historical D5 win exists but recent form does not inspire confidence.
Crucial Dutch is the consistent D5 plodder — six consecutive D5 runs always placing, never winning. AvgPerf 24, firstBend 18. Never leads but rarely finishes last. Place interest only.
Grayroy Duke has high trap suitability (77) from T2 but the lowest speed rating (38) in the field and avgPerf 20. Slow breaker (firstBend 23) who cannot threaten at this trip. Place possibility at long odds only.
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 270m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.