@NewcastleDogs On Twitter Stakes
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | Bet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | ||||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Quivers Rolexb 3y 25 | P Rutherford — 18% R343 W61 P183 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 53 | 52 | 44 (5) | 51 (4) | 48 (4) | 32 (6) | 63 (2) | 72 (1) | 63 (2) | 37 (6) | 49 (3) | 52 (5) | 37 | 36 | 34 | 30 | 51 | 45 | 3 | 13/8 | - | |
| 2 | ▶ Thetimetoshineb 1y 3 | J J Fenwick — 19% R505 W95 P289 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | 45 | 46 (5) | 63 (1) | 61 (2) | 51 (3) | 58 (3) | 47 (5) | 55 (3) | 48 (4) | 51 (4) | - | 31 | 71 | - | 68 | 64 | 61 | 1 | 6/4F | - | |
| 3 | ▶ In The Bunkerb 2y 16 | S Roberts — 19% R175 W34 P83 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 43 | 57 | 31 (5) | 38 (4) | 30 (6) | 40 (5) | 61 (1) | 21 (6) | 39 (5) | 34 (6) | 43 (4) | 71 (1) | 28 | 37 | 51 | 38 | 52 | 46 | 4 | 4/1 | - | |
| 4 | ▶ Blackhouse Sadieb 4y 26 | S Ray — 15% R404 W60 P219 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 54 | 46 | 42 (6) | 47 (2) | 43 (4) | 49 (2) | 50 (3) | 43 (4) | 40 (6) | 51 (4) | 48 (5) | 61 (1) | 51 | 32 | 26 | 33 | 54 | 49 | 2 | 4/1 | - | |
| 5 | ▶ Canny Adelaideb 4y 23 | P Rutherford — 18% R343 W61 P183 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 43 | 59 | 44 (6) | 56 (2) | 44 (1) | 32 (3) | 50 (4) | 55 (2) | 19 (1) | 20 (4) | 20 (5) | - | 38 | 34 | 30 | 34 | 48 | 44 | 5 | 18/1 | - | |
Thetimetoshine is the standout dog on the entire Newcastle card. Average perf of 64 is 10+ points above the field average of 53 — this is genuine class superiority. Her recent form includes back-to-back HP wins at P72 and P71, showing she's performing well above A6 level, followed by a P51 third at A6 last time which is her weakest recent competitive effort but still a placing. Before the HP wins, she was running trials (P20, P18, P22), suggesting a return from injury or rest, and the two big HP wins indicate she's come back at her best or better. As a Closer (EP 46, CS 60, pCon 96), her outstanding pace consistency of 96 — the best in the field by far — means she delivers maximum effort every time. Her suitability profile is exceptional — track 71, distance 68 — the highest suitability scores on the entire Newcastle card today. Trap suitability of 31 is moderate from T2, and T2 at 17.65% is below average structurally. Trainer Fenwick at 18% is moderate. The T2 structural headwind is real, but with a 10-point perf advantage and the best suitability scores in the field, the class gap should overwhelm the trap disadvantage. This is the race where composite rank genuinely predicts at A6 (R1 wins 22.52%), and she IS composite rank 1 by a clear margin.
Back-to-back A7 winner stepping up from the dominant T4 with excellent trap suitability. The Closer profile suits Newcastle's straight. Main danger to Thetimetoshine, but the 10-point perf gap is significant. Needs the pick to underperform.
Dominant T1 draw but returning from a lengthy break via trials. Dated competitive form makes current ability uncertain. If he's retained A5 sharpness he's a factor, but the risk of a rusty performance is significant. Too many question marks.
Brilliant on his day (P71 A5, P70 A6) but P34 sixth last time shows the other side. Dominant T3 and field-best class suitability are positives but the wild form swings and Fader profile make him too unpredictable to trust as a danger.
Returning from a lengthy competitive absence via a trial. Dated A4/A5 form suggests ability but current fitness is unknown. Too many question marks to consider as a realistic contender despite the neutral structural position.
R1 wins 22.52% — normal separation, composite rankings carry weight. Thetimetoshine has the field's highest composite by 12+ points. T2 is below average at 17.65% but the 11-point perf advantage over the field average should override. T4 is dominant and that's where the danger Blackhouse Sadie sits.
T1:20.72% T2:17.65% T3:20.33% T4:21.74% T5:18% T6:15.9%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 480m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Quivers Rolex | 54 | 50 | All-Rounder |
2Thetimetoshine | 46 | 60 | Closer |
3In The Bunker | 60 | 28 | Fader |
4Blackhouse Sadie | 47 | 63 | Closer |
5Canny Adelaide | 50 | 47 | All-Rounder |
Only runs at exactly 480m — no cross-distance comparisons. Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Each dog's average pace per 10m at every distance they've run. Green = fastest, red = slowest — shows where each dog is naturally strongest. Today's distance (480m) is highlighted.
| Dog | 290m | 480m | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Quivers Rolex | — | 0.623 |
| 2 | Thetimetoshine | — | 0.624 |
| 3 | In The Bunker | — | 0.630 |
| 4 | Blackhouse Sadie | — | 0.623 |
| 5 | Canny Adelaide | 0.618 | 0.629 |
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.