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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Ratchies Rasmusd 4y 34 | D Blackbird — 17% R1087 W183 P588 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 62 | 47 | 37 (5) | 35 (5) | 47 (3) | 57 (2) | 57 (1) | 51 (4) | 52 (3) | 48 (4) | 45 (4) | 53 (2) | 32 | 28 | 45 | 28 | 48 | 41 | 5 | 3/1 | |
| 2 | ▶ Coppice Cochised 2y 14 | J J Fenwick — 19% R497 W96 P285 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 40 | 47 | 24 (6) | 42 (2) | 42 (5) | 29 (5) | 44 (3) | 38 (5) | 44 (4) | 44 (3) | 36 (5) | 46 (3) | 28 | 25 | - | 21 | 40 | 35 | 2 | 20/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Swift Kingd 2y 17 | S Ray — 14% R409 W58 P218 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 47 | 54 | 82 (2) | 56 (4) | 42 (6) | 66 (2) | 56 (2) | 56 (3) | 71 (2) | 71 (1) | 46 (4) | 46 (3) | 24 | 30 | - | 19 | 53 | 43 | 4 | 10/11F | |
| 4 | ▶ Alnwick Aurorab 2y 19 | A Harrison — 20% R515 W101 P311 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 45 | 61 | 51 (3) | 62 (1) | 51 (5) | 50 (3) | 61 (1) | 52 (2) | 40 (4) | 60 (2) | 44 (4) | 48 (3) | 22 | 39 | - | 31 | 54 | 46 | 1 | 5/1 | |
| 5 | ▶ Lexis Bulletb 2y 6 | D Blackbird — 17% R1087 W183 P588 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 60 | 47 | 47 (4) | 66 (1) | 51 (2) | 46 (5) | 49 (3) | 63 (2) | 67 (1) | 41 (5) | 54 (2) | 62 (1) | 25 | 29 | 26 | 29 | 50 | 42 | 3 | 3/1 | |
Alnwick Aurora gets the Pred1 nod as a Fader (EP 66, CS 10, pCon 86) from T4 (20.33%) — the second-best structural position in this field. Her EP 66 is field-best by a significant margin, and she will absolutely blaze to the front through the first two bends. But CS 10 is essentially zero closing speed — she will fade dramatically through Newcastle's long home straight. The question is whether the lead she builds through superior early pace (66 vs next best 55) is enough to hold off the closers. Form reads P48→P38→P43→P71→P53→P70, with the P71 and P70 HP wins showing she can lead and hold on, but A7 form of P48→P38→P43 is disappointing. Suitability is moderate (track 39, distance 31, trap 22). Trainer Harrison at 16% is average. In a race where Front Runners win 24.37%, the pace angle has genuine merit, but CS 10 at Newcastle's fair 480m is asking for trouble. The R3-beats-R1 dynamic at A7 adds uncertainty.
Best perf in the field from the dominant T3 draw with a more sustainable Fader profile than the pick. The HP form (P72 win) shows class ability. In a low-separation race where R3 wins more than R1, Swift King's structural position and form peaks make him the main threat.
Field-best speed and strong closing ability but drawn in the below-average T1 at A7 Newcastle. Consistent placer who rarely wins — P52 is his best from six starts. The closing profile suits Newcastle's straight but the draw and winning pattern say place, not win.
Weakest performer in the field from the dead T2 draw with zero class suitability. Consistent A7 underperformer who hasn't finished above fourth in recent form. Confidently opposed.
Proven A7 winner from three starts back but fatally drawn in the dead T5 at 14.45%. The structural position is too weak to overcome despite genuine CD form. The low-separation nature of A7 means trap position is the primary signal — and T5 says no.
UNUSUAL COMPOSITE: R3 beats R1 (24.13% vs 19.12%) — upsets frequent at A7. R1 vs R3 gap is -5.01pp meaning the model's top pick is LESS likely to win than its third pick. LOW SEPARATION: ratings are unreliable. Front Runners win 24.37% — strong pace advantage. T3-T4 are the viable draws in this field (no T6). T5 is dead at 14.45%.
T1:16.85% T2:15.71% T3:20.81% T4:20.33% T5:14.45% T6:22.82%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 480m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Ratchies Rasmus | 45 | 84 | Closer |
2Coppice Cochise | 49 | 50 | All-Rounder |
3Swift King | 55 | 41 | Fader |
4Alnwick Aurora | 66 | 10 | Fader |
5Lexis Bullet | 50 | 68 | Closer |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.