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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Colliers Cashelb 1y 8 | P Prior — 23% R52 W12 P34 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 45 | - | 30 (1) | 24 (3) | 26 (3) | 21 (5) | 27 (2) | 29 (1) | 22 (3) | - | - | - | 15 | 23 | - | 23 | - | 7 | 5 | 5/1 | |
| 2 | ▶ Anglesey Herringb 2y 8 | D T Gomersall — 15% R137 W20 P69 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 45 | - | 23 (3) | 28 (1) | 15 (6) | 22 (3) | 46 (3) | 19 (5) | 21 (4) | 24 (2) | 68 (1) | 50 (2) | 37 | 29 | 20 | 27 | 21 | 25 | 4 | 14/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Carpe Diemd 2y 19 | E T Parker — 20% R208 W41 P118 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 55 | 38 | 70 (1) | 56 (4) | 33 (6) | 32 (6) | 45 (4) | 71 (1) | 22 (3) | 19 (5) | 26 (2) | 29 (1) | 42 | 36 | 17 | 47 | 31 | 35 | 1 | 4/5F | |
| 4 | ▶ Sugarberryb 3y 6 | D T Gomersall — 15% R137 W20 P69 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 62 | 24 (3) | 18 (5) | 23 (3) | 27 (2) | 23 (3) | 17 (6) | 17 (4) | 19 (4) | 19 (4) | 23 (2) | 36 | 28 | 37 | 37 | 20 | 25 | 2 | 9/1 | |
| 5 | ▶ Notsofastteddyd 3yN/R 14 | L A Taylorson — 17% R234 W39 P133 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 50 | - | 19 (6) | 30 (1) | 25 (3) | 31 (1) | 29 (1) | 26 (2) | 18 (5) | 20 (5) | 19 (5) | 17 (6) | 32 | 22 | 20 | 25 | 21 | 23 | - | - | |
| 6 | ▶ Gunners Nephewd 4y 15 | M A P O'donnell — 19% R293 W55 P167 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 55 | - | 26 (2) | 14 (6) | 23 (3) | 17 (4) | 24 (3) | 20 (5) | 24 (2) | 23 (4) | 24 (3) | 22 (3) | 31 | 28 | 23 | 34 | 22 | 25 | 3 | 15/8 | |
The predicted winner with the highest H3 (60.5) and composite (35) in the field by a significant margin. Drawn in a DOMINANT position (T3 at 23.5% from 68 runs — a smaller sample but directionally strong). Average performance 31 is the best in the field by 10 points, with a stable trajectory: 41->37->36->35->34. The decline from 41 to 34 is gradual rather than dramatic. A Closer (EP 37, CS 99) which is normally a concern at 280m, but at NORMAL separation (8.8pp) where R1 composite wins at 23.4%, the class edge matters more. CD form 5,2,1,1 at Sheffield 280m includes back-to-back wins — the 5 was the latest run which is a concern, but the two wins before show genuine course-and-distance ability. Distance suit 47 is field-best, and trap suit 42 confirms good T3 form. Trainer Parker at 12% is low — the weakest point. Speed 55 is field-best. In a NORMAL separation race, the combination of best ratings, dominant trap, best speed, and proven CD form creates convergence that the Closer profile can't fully negate.
DANGER — elite early pace (EP 63, bend 62) at 280m where the front-runner advantage is highest. CD form includes a win. Last perf spike to 40 suggests improvement. Fader at 280m can hold if she builds a big enough lead.
Dominant T1 and Prior trainer are strong signals but only 3 career runs with very low ratings. High uncertainty — could improve dramatically or be outclassed. Can't be supported with confidence.
Weak trap draw and declining form (two consecutive fifths) make this very hard to support. CD wins show ability exists somewhere but current form is poor.
Limited dog with flat form trajectory and low suitability. Neutral draw offers nothing. Extensive CD experience but rarely competitive. Mid-pack at best.
Directionally dead T6 draw and no CD wins make this dog impossible to support. Field-joint-best speed is wasted from the worst structural position.
NORMAL separation (8.8pp) — R1 composite at 23.4% vs R3 at 14.6%, so ratings have significant predictive power at D5 280m. T1 dominant at 25.0% and T3 at 23.5%. T6 looks dead at just 8.2% but from only 61 runs.
T1:25.0% T2:14.9% T3:23.5% T4:20.0% T5:17.3% T6:8.2%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 280m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.