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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Wraysbury Queenb 2y 7 | P Rutherford — 19% R333 W63 P179 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 17 | 39 | 36 (2) | 35 (5) | 39 (5) | 37 (4) | 28 (5) | 50 (1) | 48 (3) | 54 (3) | 57 (2) | 54 (3) | 24 | 33 | 22 | 30 | 47 | 41 | 6 | 7/2 | |
| 2 | ▶ Lightfoot Richied 5y 34 | J J Fenwick — 19% R497 W96 P285 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 27 | 15 | 61 (6) | 55 (2) | 33 (3) | 61 (6) | 70 (2) | 47 (1) | 55 (2) | 67 (3) | 50 (1) | - | 43 | 36 | 35 | 36 | 53 | 48 | 4 | 9/2 | |
| 3 | ▶ Jacktavern Jaxd 1y 15 | D Blackbird — 17% R1085 W182 P586 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 49 | 52 | 61 (3) | 73 (1) | 49 (5) | 60 (3) | 65 (2) | 61 (3) | 75 (1) | 55 (4) | 74 (1) | 73 (1) | 59 | 49 | 51 | 49 | 54 | 53 | 1 | 15/8F | |
| 4 | ▶ Alnwick Lottieb 3y 14 | A Harrison — 20% R514 W101 P311 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 61 | - | 55 (4) | 55 (4) | 54 (3) | 64 (3) | 58 (3) | 63 (2) | 52 (4) | 59 (3) | 57 (2) | 62 (2) | 35 | 34 | 41 | 28 | 63 | 52 | 5 | 9/4 | |
| 5 | ▶ Tetra Cruisingb 2y 10 | S Ray — 14% R408 W58 P217 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 52 | 59 | 83 (1) | 64 (3) | 48 (6) | 65 (3) | 53 (3) | 57 (3) | 78 (1) | 73 (1) | 64 (2) | 45 (5) | 1 | 27 | 15 | 27 | 48 | 38 | 3 | 12/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Megans Angelb 3y 6 | J T Edgar — 16% R477 W78 P269 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 63 | 51 | 62 (3) | 73 (1) | 52 (2) | 73 (1) | 46 (5) | 51 (5) | 52 (4) | 53 (4) | 48 (4) | 52 (4) | 13 | 33 | 25 | 33 | 57 | 46 | 2 | 6/1 | |
Megans Angel gets the Pred1 pick primarily on the strength of her average perf of 57 (field-best), speed 71 (field-best), and the structural advantage of T6 at 20% in HP races. Her form trajectory shows a decline — P48→P52→P59→P63→P53→P74 — with the P74 HP win five starts back being the class peak and recent runs trending downward (P48 last, P52 before that). As a Closer (EP 50, CS 62, pCon 86), she has the finishing speed to benefit from Newcastle's long straight and her pace consistency is reliable. Track suitability of 33 and distance 33 are moderate but trap suitability of 15 is weak — she hasn't performed well from T6 individually despite the structural advantage. Trainer Edgar at 26% is a moderate positive. The pick is based on class superiority and structural position rather than form trend — and in a handicap where the stagger reduces the form advantage, that's a concern. She needs to reverse the declining trajectory to win.
Best overall suitability profile in the field with a P72 HP win proving he handles these conditions. The All-Rounder versatility and strong pCon of 89 make him reliable. T3 is neutral rather than dominant, and the P35 sixth shows downside risk, but the all-round profile makes him the main danger.
Benefits from T1 dominance and maximum stagger but fundamentally too slow to hold off the class dogs. Consistent third-place performer who will be involved early then fade from the picture when the faster dogs arrive.
Extreme Closer who can fly home (P70 win, CS 91) but the P33 sixth last time shows the other side. Too volatile to trust — when he runs to his best he wins, when he doesn't he's tailed off. Speed 16 gives the leaders too big a head start.
Best consistent form in the field but fatally drawn in the dead T4 — just 11.89% from 429 runs. The handicap format makes trap position less important than in flats, but T4's record is so extreme that even the stagger can't fully compensate. Unlucky draw ruins her chances.
Dead T5 draw, Fader profile that weakens through the straight, and trap suitability of 2. The structural evidence overwhelmingly says he can't win from here. Inconsistent form adds no confidence.
HANDICAP — trap bias de-weighted, speed/pace profile elevated. T6 is the second-best position at 20% and that's where the pick is drawn. T4 and T5 are dead draws, significantly hurting two of the more fancied runners (Alnwick Lottie and Tetra Cruising). R1 wins just 18.56% — the stagger reduces composite predictive value.
T1:22.4% T2:19.95% T3:17.52% T4:11.89% T5:13.2% T6:20%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 480m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
Pace Profile
Avg early pace vs closing speed from last 5 runs
| Dog | Early | Close | Style |
|---|---|---|---|
1Wraysbury Queen | 39 | 57 | Closer |
2Lightfoot Richie | 15 | 89 | Closer |
3Jacktavern Jax | 50 | 28 | All-Rounder |
4Alnwick Lottie | — | — | No data |
5Tetra Cruising | 51 | 30 | All-Rounder |
6Megans Angel | 50 | 50 | All-Rounder |
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.