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Star Pelaw Sprint Trophy
| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Rating | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Fruity Topmand 3y 13 | S R Miller — 14% R216 W30 P99 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 0 | - | 72 (3) | 43 (5) | 83 (3) | 67 (5) | 54 (4) | 27 (4) | 42 (1) | 28 (5) | 44 (1) | 26 (5) | 34 | 13 | 22 | 31 | 34 | 31 | 5 | 11/4 | |
| 2 | ▶ Up To Mischiefd 3y 16 | S R Miller — 14% R216 W30 P99 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 51 | 45 | 36 (4) | 31 (4) | 84 (1) | 72 (2) | 67 (2) | 50 (5) | 55 (5) | 74 (2) | 94 (1) | 87 (1) | 66 | 56 | 44 | 70 | 69 | 67 | 4 | 11/2 | |
| 3 | ▶ Caseys Dyland 2y 34 | S Atkinson — 20% R245 W50 P167 Trainer form — last 3 months | 69 | 53 | - | 44 (5) | 60 (3) | 37 (5) | 68 (3) | 47 (1) | 47 (1) | 43 (1) | 35 (3) | 100 (1) | 35 (3) | 65 | 38 | 39 | 53 | 40 | 44 | 1 | 1/1F | |
| 5 | ▶ Dorotas Diamondd 3y 15 | K A Kennedy — 24% R95 W23 P55 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 46 | - | 33 (3) | 34 (3) | 29 (4) | 30 (4) | 34 (2) | 29 (3) | 30 (4) | 41 (1) | 89 (2) | 38 (1) | 46 | 19 | 37 | 30 | 36 | 34 | 3 | 33/1 | |
| 6 | ▶ Blackstone Danid 3y 25 | C M Dibb — 12% R309 W38 P154 Trainer form — last 3 months | 87 | 58 | 56 | 70 (4) | 83 (1) | 80 (1) | 59 (3) | 46 (6) | 32 (5) | 34 (4) | 26 (6) | 57 (4) | 45 (1) | 73 | 51 | 42 | 60 | 49 | 53 | 2 | 3/1 | |
The Pred1 projected winner, drawn in T3 which wins 20.6% from 73 runs — a decent structural position, the second-best trap after the dominant T6. Recent form at 245m D1 level reads 34-29-39-46-45 with two CD wins showing he knows how to get the job done at this distance and track. Track suit 38 and distance suit 53 confirm strong CD form, and the trap suit of 65 is excellent — suggesting he has been successful from this box position historically. No pace data exists (EP, CS, pace profile all null) which makes the race shape harder to predict, but speed 53 is solid. Trainer S Atkinson at 12% is unremarkable. The step up from D1 to OR is a significant class rise — his recent opponents have been much weaker. Average performance at 40 is below the field-best by a wide margin, and the concern is whether D1 form translates to OR level. He gets the nod from the prediction model on suitability fit, but this is a tentative selection given the class step and the massive T6 structural advantage for Blackstone Dani.
DANGER — and the AI Pick. T6 dominant at 32.9% from 82 runs with trap suit 73, field-best speed (58), field-best bend (56). The structural advantage is overwhelming. Inconsistent form (P29 last time) is the only concern, but the 12.3pp structural gap over T3 is decisive.
Zero Star Pelaw 245m form, DEAD T1 draw, no pace data, speed 0 — this is a complete unknown from the worst position. Needs everything to fall right and even then the numbers do not support it.
Highest class in the field by a mile (avg perf 69) but all three recent runs at 435m with poor results. The sprint readiness question is real. Suitability scores say she belongs here historically, but the T2 draw (15.9%) and lack of recent sprint sharpness count against her.
Massive class step from D2 to OR with no form to suggest she can bridge the gap. Avg perf 36 is below field standard. The P88 spike is anomalous. Trainer Kennedy is a plus but the dog is outclassed here.
T6 is MASSIVELY dominant at 32.9% from 82 runs — nearly double expected rate. Speed rank 1 wins 31.9%. At 245m sprint, early pace and bend matter most but the T6 structural advantage is overwhelming.
T1:14.9% T2:15.9% T3:20.6% T4:19.7% T5:17.1% T6:32.9%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 245m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.