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| Trap | Dog | Trainer | Rated | Spd | Bnd | Suitability | Form | Comp | Pred | SP | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LR | 2LR | 3LR | 4LR | 5LR | 6LR | 7LR | 8LR | 9LR | 10LR | Trap | Track | Class | Dist | |||||||||||
| 1 | ▶ Rocking Skyeb 2y 36 | C M Dibb — 12% R309 W38 P154 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 44 | 21 | 46 (4) | 61 (2) | 65 (1) | 24 (3) | 20 (4) | 25 (3) | 18 (5) | 24 (3) | 21 (2) | 24 (2) | 32 | 30 | 34 | 26 | 28 | 28 | 6 | 16/1 | |
| 2 | ▶ Brynoffa Beeb 3y 26 | S R Miller — 14% R216 W30 P99 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 54 | 53 | 51 (5) | 44 (5) | 40 (6) | 52 (4) | 58 (3) | 64 (2) | 63 (2) | 54 (4) | 72 (1) | 51 (3) | 14 | 30 | - | 17 | 46 | 37 | 5 | 7/1 | |
| 3 | ▶ Loughside Roisinb 2y 15 | G A Foot — 19% R294 W56 P170 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 59 | - | 34 (3) | 37 (1) | 30 (4) | 28 (3) | 32 (1) | 21 (3) | 20 (4) | 21 (3) | 31 (1) | 32 (1) | 39 | 19 | 17 | 26 | 22 | 24 | 2 | 4/6F | |
| 4 | ▶ Are Man Whyd 2y 24 | G A Foot — 19% R294 W56 P170 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 45 | - | 49 (5) | 75 (1) | 40 (4) | 33 (1) | 31 (1) | 17 (5) | - | - | - | - | 20 | - | - | - | 17 | 18 | 4 | 5/1 | |
| 5 | ▶ Glenbowen Mabelb 2y 13 | M J Watson — 24% R46 W11 P28 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 62 | 57 | 100 (1) | 32 (2) | 22 (5) | 32 (1) | 65 (2) | 27 (2) | 61 (3) | 52 (4) | 42 (5) | 71 (1) | 32 | 61 | 37 | 66 | 52 | 52 | 1 | 10/3 | |
| 6 | ▶ Crafty San Sirod 3y 17 | C M Dibb — 12% R309 W38 P154 Trainer form — last 3 months | - | 41 | 50 | 58 (3) | 44 (5) | 37 (5) | 62 (2) | 25 (6) | 64 (1) | 33 (5) | 42 (5) | 43 (3) | 28 (2) | 42 | 36 | 11 | 26 | 38 | 37 | 3 | 6/1 | |
The Pred1 projected winner with field-best speed (62) and a Front Runner profile (EP 57, pace consistency 93) that suits 245m sprints. Average performance 52 is the highest in the field by a clear margin — she is a class above this D4 field, having recently won at A6 (P70, 1st) and competed at A5 level. That class drop is massive: A5 to D4 is roughly 4-5 grades. Speed 62 and bend 57 are both field-best, confirming the raw ability. Suitability is strong: track 61, distance 66, trap 32. Trainer M J Watson at 24% is excellent. The MASSIVE problem is the draw — T5 wins just 3.1% from 32 runs at D4 245m. That is 1 win in 32 attempts. It is the worst structural position on the entire Star Pelaw card tonight. The question is whether a 52 avg perf dog can overcome a 3.1% trap in a 16-20 avg perf field. The class gap is enormous (30+ points above field average) — if any dog can defy a dead trap, it is one this far above the grade. But 3.1% is 3.1%. This is a tentative pick with the AI Pick flag raised for T3 Loughside Roisin.
DANGER and AI Pick — DOMINANT T3 at 29.7% with a last-time D4 245m win from this draw. The 26.6pp structural gap over the predicted T5 is the largest on the card. Inconsistent (1st, 6th, 6th) but the structural fit is overwhelming. Trainer Foot at 22% adds confidence.
Three consecutive 2nds at this trip tells the story — good enough to place, wrong profile to win. EP 20 and bend 21 at 245m mean she starts last and cannot recover. T1 at 10% confirms the structural headwind. Consistent placer, nothing more.
Massive class drop from A4-A6 gives a theoretical speed edge, but limited recent sprint form and poor T2 trap suit (14) count against her. Speed 54 and bend 53 are sprint-appropriate but the readiness question remains.
Lightly raced and going backwards (17-16-14). Field-lowest avg perf (17) with no pace data and zero suitability scores. The T4 structural advantage (25.8%) is irrelevant for a dog who cannot compete at this grade. Too raw and too slow.
Competitive D4 245m performer (2nd last time) with moderate sprint credentials. But lacks the speed of Mabel (62 vs 41) and the structural position of Roisin (T3 at 29.7%). An each-way player at best in a race dominated by those two factors.
T5 is catastrophically dead at 3.1% from 32 runs — just 1 win in 32 attempts. T3 is DOMINANT at 29.7%. The predicted winner in T5 faces the worst structural position on the entire Star Pelaw card tonight. Speed R1 wins 28.6% — speed matters but the trap bias is extreme.
T1:10.0% T2:16.2% T3:29.7% T4:25.8% T5:3.1% T6:18.5%
Speed Progress · Adjusted times at 245m · Fastest at top
Pre-race stats that explain the top 3 finishers
How consistent is each dog? Tight cluster = reliable, wide spread = volatile. Faster times on the left. Hover any dot for race details. Amber = troubled run.
Performance rating trend over last 10 races. Hover any dot for race details. Amber dots = troubled runs.
Trainer patterns, moves signals, and form streaks at this venue.